Updating Kyle Tucker's Contract Expectations Following Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s $500 Million Extension

[Brandon Glick]

The Cubs' right fielder is now the premier free agent on the market next offseason, following Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s historic agreement. How much more expensive has he just gotten?

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Had you consulted any aggregate list of the "Top 2025 MLB Free Agents" prior to this past weekend, you would have invariably seen two names at the top: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker.

Well, you can consider Tucker the last man standing, now that Guerrero and the Toronto Blue Jays have worked out a 14-year, $500 million contract extension. If that sounds like an obscene total for a player who has only had two truly great seasons, that's because it is. That $500 million figure is the third-largest sum ever given to a baseball player, behind just $700-million men Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. However, given the massive amount of deferred money in Ohtani's deal, Guerrero's contract is the second-biggest in terms of present value.

At his peak, Guerrero's wRC+ was 166 in 2021 and 165 last season. In 2022 and 2023, he posted marks of 132 and 118, respectively. Those latter numbers are still solid, but there's a huge difference between being 20-30% better than the average hitter and 60% better. To illustrate the point: Guerrero's 165 wRC+ ranked sixth in baseball last year, just a few spots behind Soto and in the company of guys like Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr. His new teammate, Anthony Santander, finished 26th with a 129 wRC+, earning a five-year, $92.5 million contract for that career year.

Now, Guerrero isn't exactly the perfect touchstone for Tucker extension talks. Guerrero is more than two years Tucker's junior, and he also plays first base compared to right field. Likewise, the Blue Jays star has had higher highs than Tucker, who has earned his reputation as a consistently great player year over year. The ceiling on Tucker is lower—the variance is less—but the floor is much higher.

Well, the variance was less, I should say. We spoke earlier this offseason about the two-year peak Tucker found himself in between 2023-24, and he's now blowing even those seasons out of the water in 2025. All of the small sample size caveats apply in spades here, but through his first 12 games with the Cubs (~13.5% of the season), Tucker is slashing .319/.458/.745, with a 233 OPS+. He currently leads the National League in WAR (1.0), runs (13), hits (15), home runs (5), RBIs (15), and OPS (1.202). This is even better than the ridiculous pace he set for himself last year, when he supplied 4.7 WAR to the Astros in just 78 games played.

This version of Tucker is better than even the best version of Guerrero that we've seen, which is saying something: the Canadian slugger has a runner-up MVP finish on his résumé. Sure, he can't be expected to keep producing quite at this rate—this would literally be a top-five season of all time, if he does—but it does prove that Tucker is somehow still improving, which is kind of important when you're debating whether or not to pay a guy hundreds of millions of dollars for future production.

So, let's readjust our expectations for what Tucker might be able to get on the open market, which he'll almost certainly hit now that Guerrero has set the bar at a height that even a non-frugal version of the Cubs would be terrified to match. In that piece about his peak and contract expectations, I compared Tucker's free agency to that of Bryce Harper's. That comparison might be even more prevalent now that Tucker looks to be on the precipice of posting a season similar to Harper's magical 2015 campaign, but the Cubs outfielder is going to get more than the 10 years and $400 million I originally forecasted if he keeps this up.

Sure, being 29 by the time his next deal starts hurts his value. His age will likely preclude him from getting the same length of contract Harper (13 years) or Guerrero (14) signed, but Tucker's AAV should exceed the $35.7 million the latter just received. Could the right fielder push for $450 million over, say, 12 years? Maybe, especially if he's willing to take deferrals that would push down the present value (and AAV, in luxury tax calculations). My best guess would be to peg him at an 11-year deal (taking him through his age-40 season) that would be worth somewhere around $425 million, depending on deferrals.

If that comes to pass... well, enjoy him while you have him, Cubs fans.

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[ryanrc]

Another really important fact to discuss: There won't be many suitors.
The biggest spending clubs are heavily locked in with big contracts. They are running out of wiggle room to add any more stars.  

I'll get into this more on a blogpost soon- but for now, note that right field is one of the most popular positions for the big contracts . Most big spenders have one already, and the small spenders won't jump. 

Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Padres, Mets, Blue Jays, Angels, Pirates, Braves, Brewers, Padres all ruled out. 
Also, no worries from Diamondbacks, White Sox, Athletics, Rays, Rockies, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners.

Easily outbid: Royals, Tigers, Reds, Nationals, Orioles.

What does this leave? Cardinals, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants... Astros.
 
Cubs are in a great position to offer 43mm/year, 10 years, 430 million contract,... and win that bid. I believe Kyle Tucker is a more complete player than Soto (he adds .5 fielding WAR per year, with the same bat upside potential) and has a good chance to outplay him over that time frame. Soto's AAV is $51 mm, which is obscene considering its absurd length of 15 years. Still, I consider the market too small, and too few teams willing to go much higher on Tucker given their current roster statuses. People forget that contract size are not only shaped by the other contracts received by recent players, but also by the supply/demand.  He may be the only super contract signed in 2026, but he's also arriving at a tricky moment, with a down economy, down media revenues, and all the top spending teams being heavily committed to big spending, and all the mid-tier teams needing more pitching help before hitting. 
 
 

Edited April 8, 2025 by ryanrc