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When the Chicago Cubs signed Justin Turner late in the offseason, the assumption was that he'd be a capable bench bat and a supplement to Michael Busch at first base against particularly tough left-handed pitchers. It turns out that "tough" might've meant "all".

Image courtesy of © Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

On March 30th, Justin Turner got the start against the Arizona Diamondbacks' lone lefty starter, Eduardo Rodríguez. On April 4th, Turner pinch-hit for Michael Busch against Athletics reliever T.J. MacFarland in the seventh inning of a 6-4 game. The next day, it was Turner in the starting lineup again, facing southpaw Jeffrey Springs

Things got really interesting over the weekend, though. On Friday, Turner hit for Busch in the fifth inning of an even 1-1 tilt, as the San Diego Padres sent Yuki Matsui to the mound. Yes, the Chicago Cubs' starting first baseman was removed halfway through the game for a pinch-hitter. Turner was back in the starting lineup on Sunday against Kyle Hart, and committed a rather egregious error that allowed the go-ahead run to cross the plate in the top of the ninth. He also struck out to end the game.

The Sunday notes may be unfair to Turner; he has largely come in and succeeded when tasked with entering late or starting against a left-handed arm. He has two hits in two pinch-hit opportunities (that were not in Tokyo), and was hitting .429 vs. lefties in nine plate appearances heading into that series finale. Busch, meanwhile, has had only four opportunities against lefties this season. He's 1-for-4 with a double and a pair of strikeouts in those four chances.

Seeing Turner get about 70% of the plate appearances available to that lineup spot against lefties is surprising, though. It feels like more than the role that was projected for him when he signed.

After all, it's not as if Busch has been especially bad against pitchers of the same handedness. He has a 113 career wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and a mark of 93 going the other way. He's actually hit for a higher average (.250) against southpaws than against right-handers (.235). The primary differences are in the power (.192 ISO vs. RHP; .120 vs. LHP) and the walk rate (11.8% vs. RHP; 6.7% vs. LHP). But we're not talking about a guy who is egregiously terrible against pitchers of the same handedness. 

In a vacuum, though, this is not an illogical deployment of either Busch or Turner. Busch is worse against left-handed pitching; Turner is better against it. But even Turner's own career trends aren't stark. He's actually put up a slightly higher wRC+ against righties (127) than against lefties (125). The ISO is roughly 20 points higher (.186) against the latter than the former (.167), but much of his line looks consistent, regardless of handedness. Our ability to estimate individual batters' platoon skills is very limited, but both Busch and Turner exhibit the few traits we tend to associate with small splits (like catching the ball farther out front against same-handed pitchers). Neither player needs to be platooned, per se.

If you're looking for an argument in favor of Counsell's deployment of them, it's possible that the Cubs are trying to give Busch a bit of a breather, given a slow start to the year. He's hit only .235 through 39 plate appearances, and has been quiet on the power side (.118 ISO). But he's also walking about as often as he did last year; is striking out less often; and has run into some poor batted-ball luck—although that could be fueled by a sharp rise in his groundball rate (52.0%). Even that doesn't entirely hold water, because a lot of the underlying stuff is similar to what was an impressive rookie campaign in 2024. That's to say nothing of a very strong spring training performance. 

From a performance standpoint, there's plenty of logic to be found. But taking a long-term outlook, it's a bit less clear. Michael Busch was able to bring some stability to a position that has lacked it since Anthony Rizzo's departure. He demonstrated an increased level of maturity in his approach as the year wore on, while providing above-average defense for much of the season. Presumably, the Cubs (who raved about Busch all offseason) still view him as a fixture at the position for the next few years.

That is ultimately the question here. If Craig Counsell plans to platoon Busch with a right-handed hitting veteran, he might squeeze a bit more production out of the position. If that was the plan when the team signed Turner, though, it raises some new questions about their offseason strategy and their valuation of Busch.


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