Could Cubs' Opponents Dictate How They Divvy Up Playing Time at Catcher?

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They say you have to bat in more than you let in. At catcher, you also have to get to second more often than you let the other team take it.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Midway through February, we took a look at the Chicago Cubs' potential distribution of playing time for their two catchers. As we prepare for the season-opening two-game set in Tokyo (with an eye on domestic Opening Day, just over a week away), has anything changed on that front?

Since the signing of Carson Kelly back in December, we've known that he'd be in something of a timeshare with the twam's young incumbent, Miguel Amaya. While we still aren't sure of the exact distribution, we at least have a level of certainty in what each provides. Amaya presents the higher upside at the plate, while Kelly is better behind it. 

But from February through our current, amorphous stage of the exhibition season, it's been a little unclear as to exactly what the split will look like. They could be attached to specific pitchers or specific matchups. To that end, though, the depth charts across the landscape still look virtually the same as they did a month ago. Baseball Prospectus has Amaya at 50 percent of the playing time, to Kelly's 45%; FanGraphs is at 51% for Amaya and 47% for Kelly. The only change is a barely perceptible increase for each of them in the latter, with Moises Ballesteros's previous glimpse of a chance for time behind the plate disappearing entirely.

While it's difficult to project exactly who gets the nod on a given day (at least until we start to see a trend with specific arms), one has to wonder what impact the schedule could have on the playing time split in the early going. At one point, it felt somewhat safe to assume Amaya would maintain an edge, given his offensive growth and longer tenure in the clubhouse, but as we reach the point where looking at the schedule becomes a worthwhile thing (and not something happening in the distant abstract), the quality of baserunning in their opponents could have something to say about who's behind the dish with more regularity. 

The two games in Tokyo notwithstanding, the Cubs will open the season with four games against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Beyond that, notable April tilts for our discussion here include six against the San Diego Padres, five more against the Dodgers, another three against the Diamondbacks at Wrigley, and the Philadelphia Phillies for three. In May, they'll get Milwaukee for three, Cincinnati for five, and Miami for six.

Those games account for 35 of the team's first 56 games (again, not including the two in Tokyo). What makes those opponents particularly notable, though, is that each finished in the top half of the league in steals last year. The Brewers, Reds, and Phillies each finished in the top six, with the Dodgers at 10th. Each of the Marlins, Padres, and Diamondbacks fitted themselves into the top 15. 

It's worth noting that the Cubs will also play the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates in the season's first two months. Those clubs finished 16th and 17th in steals, respectively, in 2024. There's also a discernible gap between the No. 15 team in Arizona, who finished with 119 steals, and the Mets and Pirates, who each came in at 106. They'll also play the Giants and White Sox (much less adept teams when it comes to the running game) by the end of May.

Some of the teams at the back end of the league's top half for steals last year, like Arizona, also feature a certain level of efficiency. While the Padres sat 14th, for example, they also had an 81% success rate on their attempts. The Snakes were at 80%. It's not just that the Cubs are going to face teams with high-volume steal numbers early in the year. They're also going against teams that are legitimately good at it, without a whole lot of roster turnover in that aspect of their game. (Heck, most of the league is good at stealing, these days, thanks to the altered rule set that has launched so many steals the last two years.)

Does that mean we should expect the Cubs to deploy Kelly more often, to defend against the running game early on?

Kelly's Caught Stealing Above Average sat at 4, which landed him in the league's top 10. His 1.97-second average pop time ranked only 47th, but still came in above average. Amaya finished 53rd (-3) and 79th (2.04) in the two categories. Not that this is new information. We know Kelly to be more skilled behind the plate in general, but especially in matters of thwarting would-be thieves.

On a Marquee broadcast earlier this spring, Craig Counsell was asked how he envisions this positional timeshare playing out. He estimated that it would be an even split, but he'll be noting the matchups against certain teams and their top threats to steal early. We could, therefore, see the veteran Kelly get more than half the starts over that stretch. While the distribution will likely even out over the course of a full season (especially if Amaya's bat ends up hot), the schedule early on could have more to say about the distribution of the time than we might've initially thought.

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