Are the Cubs Better Prepared to Withstand Slow Starts from Key Hitters in 2025?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

A couple of the hitters whose early struggles made life hard last spring are habitual slow starters. Does the team have ways to better survive early travails and put runs on the board from Day One this time?

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The calendar has just barely flipped over to March, but we’ve long known the shape of the Chicago Cubs’ lineup to start 2025. The bench still needs to be sorted, sure. But assuming Matt Shaw latches onto the third base gig (and we have no reason to think otherwise at this point), the starting nine is crystal clear.

At the same time, I’ve spent a good part of the early spring pondering what the results could look like early in the year with the apparent starting group. Last year, for example, we saw Ian Happ struggle mightily in March and April. His .216 average, .098 ISO, and 92 wRC+ last April were all his lowest in an individual month, ultimately pinning down his overall numbers by season’s end. Dansby Swanson followed up a 90 wRC+ in April with a meager 39 in May, before finally settling in during June. 

Notably, though, the early returns for both Happ and Swanson are fairly in line with what we should expect from each of them at that point in the year. While Happ’s career 104 wRC+ in March/April is indicative of an above-average player, it’s also his lowest figure in an individual month. In each of May and June, though, he’s at 121. His power output also takes a bit to get going. A .119 ISO for March/April comes in as the lowest, before spiking to .219 and .206 in the subsequent two months, respectively. 

In Happ’s case, there isn’t any clear thing to indicate why the slow start transpires. There’s as much variance in his swing rates and pitch-type tendencies in the first few months of the season as in the last few months. And it’s not as if he’s outright bad, with 2024 serving as something of an outlier on his spectrum of March/April production. It just takes a minute before his bat is fully ready in a given year. 

Even his more modest pace, though, presents a pretty strong contrast to his veteran counterpart in Swanson. While not quite the offensive caliber of even someone like Happ, Swanson has done his worst work in the season’s first month for virtually his entire career. His .235 average, .311 on-base percentage, .135 ISO, and 85 wRC+ before May 1 are all the lowest of any individual month. Last year saw his typical cold March/April spiral into a downright frigid May. 

We’ll get into some of the particulars regarding Swanson’s erratic tendencies (early and otherwise) at the plate in the coming days, but the main point is that the Cubs have a couple of regulars prone to quiet (or bad) stretches to start the year. You also have to factor in Matt Shaw, who has shown the ability to adjust when transitioning to a new level but will need some time to do so. That’s a third of the projected lineup that could slog a bit during the first month of the season, even if there's nothing materially wrong.

That brings me to my central question: Do the Cubs have enough hot starters to balance out the cold ones? They were, after all, able to do it in 2024. Despite the slow starts from Happ, Swanson, and Nico Hoerner (not typically a slow starter, but he's coming off surgery ahead of 2025), the Cubs sat fourth in the National League standings and a half-game behind Milwaukee in the NL Central at the end of April. Their 149 runs over that first month and change were sixth-best in the NL. 

Interestingly, much of the balance came from multiple names no longer around. Mike Tauchman posted a 171 wRC+ across 92 March and April plate appearances, courtesy of higher-than-usual power numbers and a walk rate sitting a shade above 16%. Cody Bellinger’s walk and power numbers were also his best in an individual month, despite horrid batted-ball luck. While those two are no longer with the team, luckily, they were not the sole source of offense in the early going.

Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch were the Cubs’ second- and third-best hitters by wRC+ through April. Suzuki went for a 147 wRC+ across 68 plate appearances, while Busch sat at 130 after 108 trips to the plate. Both compensated for alarming strikeout rates (about 30%, on average) with good power and solid (though not outlandish) walk rates.

While we don’t have enough data yet to say whether Busch is a characteristically hot or cold starter, we have a little more to back up Suzuki’s place in this. The numbers say we should be able to count on him for continued balance, in the event of slow starts from elsewhere in the lineup. His career 137 wRC+ in March and April trails only September for his highest individual month. He generally strikes out more early on, but also walks and hits for enough power to compensate. Entering the season as the team’s full-time designated hitter will, ideally, keep him healthy enough to continue to be that stabilizing force in the lineup.

For his money, Busch closed 2024 on a high note. He wrapped September with his lowest strikeout rate (20.9%) and highest isolated power (.243) of any individual month. With added bulk and a strong start to the spring, he at least looks in line to repeat—or perhaps even build on—what was a great rookie season, and that should start right away. He already looks awfully locked in this spring.

So there’s two—two batters, so far, to balance out expected slow starts from Happ, Swanson and (probably, whether by virtue of health slowing him down or holding him out altogether) Hoerner, plus the risk of an adjustment period for Shaw. 

Yes, that makes this the Kyle Tucker portion of the show. Tucker’s first month has historically been his worst month. The term is relative here, however. He’s posted a 122 wRC+ even in March and April; gone for an 11.8% walk rate; and slugged his way to a .206 ISO in the first month of the season throughout his career. That’s the difference with an elite hitter. His other months are better, because the bar is so high. In fact, he alone should help to compensate for the contributions Tauchman and Bellinger were able to make early last season, as long as he breaks out of his early spring funk before the season gets into gear.

It helps to have that level of certainty, because the remainder of the group is somewhat uncertain. Can Pete Crow-Armstrong rein in the swing rates? Can Shaw make that huge leg kick work in the majors? Will Miguel Amaya’s second-half adjustments allow him to maintain such steady production? When you combine those questions with the typical (or expected) trends of certain hitters within the lineup, that balance becomes essential. And at this point, the Cubs appear to have it, given the Tucker acquisition. If you can get an affirmative on at least one of those three questions, the possibility of a torrid start becomes a bit more real.

This wasn’t an intentional backdoor way of noting the importance of Tucker’s addition, but it kind of ended up being one. One of the consistent issues with the Cubs last year was not having that catalyst in the lineup when the group started to go cold. They needed someone to stay the course and mitigate the effects of any cold stretch. Tucker’s addition does exactly that, and his presence should be notable from the jump. Now, you’ve got Suzuki in a position to remain healthy. You’ve got Busch ready to build on his success. And you’ve got some youngsters who need to prove something early, in order to demonstrate their importance to the lineup.

As frustrating as last year’s group was on the offensive side of the ball, the balance looks likely to be better this year. One can very easily imagine such balance not only serving the group well in April, but catapulting them to a wildly improved full season at the plate in 2025.

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