The Cubs' Outfield Defense Might Be Their Secret Source of Major Improvement

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The Cubs had too many boxes on their offseason checklist to make upgrading the outfield defense a major priority—but they found a way to do that, anyway.

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Late last week, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello published a piece in which he examined the most improved defenses among contenders (while also expounding on a pair of clubs who got worse on that side of the ball). I found it quite interesting that the Chicago Cubs were listed among the three teams with the most improved defenses.

More specifically, I thought the rationale Petriello gave was worth exploring: 

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… Take below-average defenders and remove them from the field or the roster. That’s what happened with Christopher Morel, who proved unable to handle third and was traded to Tampa Bay last summer; it’s what will happen now with Suzuki, who is expected to be the team’s primary designated hitter in 2025. Former Cubs Patrick Wisdom and Mike Tauchman both had negative defensive value and have moved on; even Bellinger, despite his reputation, rated as only average last year.

We’ll talk plenty about the shape of the infield defense as the spring wears on and Matt Shaw gets closer to locking down the hot corner, but in the interim, the thoughts on the outfield are what struck me most. Petriello noted that a full season from Pete Crow-Armstrong before the above excerpt, with the idea of “addition by subtraction” serving as the basis for most of the rest of the discussion. So let’s dive a bit deeper into that.

The Cubs figure to have a very regular outfield trio; Ian Happ, Crow-Armstrong, and Kyle Tucker are your three starters. Seiya Suzuki will rotate in on occasion, and the early assumption is that we’ll see Alexander Canario work as the team’s regular fourth outfielder. Perhaps Craig Counsell will work in a little Jon Berti, as well.

That consistency in the starting lineup, though, is an important step toward solidifying the outfield defense. The Cubs deployed 10 different players on the grass last season: Happ, Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, Canario, Bellinger, Tauchman, Wisdom, Kevin Alcántara, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Garrett Cooper. By Outs Above Average, they were exactly average in left field (0), well above in center (12), and below in right (-4). Obviously, some of the 10 players impacted those figures more than others, but the newfound stability of the outfield defense should be evident early on.

Crow-Armstrong coming in as the full-time center fielder is a key component of this. He posted an OAA of 14 last year, with a 94% success rate against an 89% expected rate on batted balls in his direction. He was above average in each individual month in which he appeared, including notching 6 OAA in the season’s final month. We know that his value lies predominantly in his glove, and it’s almost impossible to overstate the significance of a full season of that. He only got about 65% of the playing time out there in 2024; that number seems bound to rise in 2025.

Next to Crow-Armstrong, the most notable change in the defense is to his left. As Petriello notes, Bellinger was exactly average and Tauchman fell a touch below. Suzuki, though, was a problem across the 72 games in which he appeared in right field. He posted -3 OAA, and the eye test might’ve actually been worse. To add Kyle Tucker, who has never fallen below the average threshold (with the exception of a wonky 2023) solidifies the defense there. To not only remove Suzuki from the equation on a full-time basis, but replace him with an above-average defender, is a boon for the group.

Interestingly, the biggest question mark of the three is likely Ian Happ, who has built up a reputation as a quality defender. Despite the Gold Glove reputation to which he’s attached, he finished as a below-average defender by OAA in 2024. Some of that was due to a brutal April that hampered his overall defensive production (-4 OAA). But he still had the odd month after Crow-Armstrong arrived where he was also worse than average. Moving to his left became particularly problematic. In that respect, one primarily has to wonder about the communication between Happ and Crow-Armstrong. 

Perhaps some time and adjustments were needed. For a defender the quality of Happ is to struggle moving in the direction of one of the game’s elite defenders speaks to some sort of communication issue. If that ends up solidified, then we should see a big bounce-back for Happ. And if we don’t, we might have to start wondering if his career-worst 2023 (-7 OAA) was a precursor. We’ll table that discussion for now, though. 

The unknown in all of this is Canario. We know he’s logged time at all three outfield spots, but he has a minimal sample at the top level to inform any evaluations. With the Cubs, he’s only appeared in each corner. But the expectation is that he’ll step in to spell Crow-Armstrong in center, too, should he make the roster. Given the depths to which we saw Suzuki’s glove sink, though, it’s difficult to imagine Canario being too much of a detriment as a once-or-twice-a-week guy.

Last year’s Cubs were fine in the outfield. Especially late in the year. But the overall perception has entirely shifted with the new year. While we need to keep an eye on Happ, a full season of Crow-Armstrong; the addition of Tucker; and addition by the subtraction of Suzuki from the defensive equation could very well have this looking like one of the top outfield trios the league has to offer.

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