Why is Kevin Alcántara Sliding in Prospect Rankings?

[Brian Kelder]

The main trade return in the Anthony Rizzo deal has seen his star dim among the consensus prospect world. The 6-foot-6 outfielder has a lot of hopes attached to him. His tools do pop, and his self-given nickname of "The Jaguar" has some aura to it. So what's behind this slight dip?

Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

Keith Law of The Athletic (paywalled) is the high man on Kevin Alcántara, ranking him as his 33rd prospect overall. Baseball America (S) listed him 71st and MLB.com placed him 90th, but Baseball Prospectus (S) omitted him from the list altogether. FanGraphs does place a 50 future value on him, projecting him as an average regular. Clearly, some of his shine has worn off.

These are not catastrophic drops in value, just some dips and possibly-minor blips. Let's take a look at what's causing these adjustments by rankers, and what Alcántara can do to regain his prospect mojo. It's a critical year for the Cubs and him, given that it's his last option year for the minors. In other words, time for the slender would-be slugger to give an answer on how much of the future he can be, before he ends up in the same boat Nelson Velázquez was in a couple of years ago, and that Alexander Canario will be in for 2025.

Alcántara has been playing center field for the bulk of his pro career, to this point. His physical profile projects to get heavier eventually, meaning he may have to shift to a corner spot. If he stays in Chicago, center field is occupied (you know, maybe), necessitating a move to a spot where the offensive standard is higher. He is projected to be a plus defender (60 grade on FanGraphs) wherever he lands. The bat is the real question.

Kevin Alcantara has speed (60 grade) and power (projected 60 grade). His hit tool lags behind, though, netting a 30 on the FanGraphs scale at present. It's rather obvious what he needs to do in order to reach his power and allow his speed to play on the bases. 

The strikeout rate is a glaring issue. Striking out at nearly a 30% rate in the minors does not bode well for a smooth transition to the major leagues. Cubs fans will remember similarly sized Jason Heyward's years-long battle with his long levers, although Heyward's feel for contact was much better. He struggled with... Well, screw it. FanGraphs said it better than me.

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"At a freaky 6-foot-6, Alcántara’s swing is very long and difficult to time. He tends to be late on fastballs and struggles to pull them in the air, but he has plus bat speed and the power to leave the yard to the opposite field even when he isn’t on time. He has plus measureable pop at age 22 and he isn’t even close to being totally filled out; his frame has room for another 15-20 pounds of muscle before Alcántara’s mobility would be threatened by his size. Compounding the hit tool volatility here, however, is Alcántara’s tendency to miss secondary pitches, as he doesn’t identify or adjust to them all that well and had miss rates north of 40% against sliders and changeups in 2024. Alcántara also drives the ball into the ground a lot; his grounder rate was 50% in 2024, but he still managed to have 35 extra-base hits in 111 minor league games (he missed a few weeks with a shoulder injury) because he hits the ball so hard. Center fielders whose contact profiles resemble Alcántara’s include Jose Siri, Michael A. Taylor, James Outman, and Luis Robert Jr., guys whose performance tends to vary a lot year-to-year, and the same will likely be true of Alcántara."

 

The last sentence is fascinating, and Alcántara has shown signs of varying performance even within seasons. Highs and lows are the hallmark of the Alcántara experience. Look at these monthly slash lines from his 2024 in Double A:

• April: .232/.274..435
• May: .295/.343/.389
• June: .179/.289/.205
• July: .365/.417/.581

See what I mean? When Alcántara clicks, he absolutely rakes. Look at that July, in an environment that suppressed offense league-wide. But when his approach wavers, the stats (yes, I know it's a slash line, but that's all we plebeians get for the minors) also wobble. Those are the perils of a tall, lanky frame, and has always been the risk here. It's playing out in the minors, and his evaluation and upside have to be analyzed in light of these statistics.

Prospect fatigue can affect a player like Alcántara in scouts' eyes. At the tender age of 22, he's been on the 40-man roster for two seasons, taking up valuable spots from middle-aged relief options. He's been on a slow burn, spending extended time in the minors with less statistical production than some of his peers. At the Triple-A level, production matters, and his has not been there at the level of other players who are ranked higher. Tools are good. At this point, though, the production has to match the projection.

Enough with the platitudes, right? Let's get nerdy. These are all concerning metrics from 2024:

• 28.7% strikeout rate
• 32% chase rate
• .320 OBP (not terrible, but this was against worse pitching than the majors)
• 51.7% ground-ball rate

If he can get those naturally long levers to work together, the Cubs could have a superstar. That's not even hyperbole! That 60-grade power is legitimate (I've watched his batting practice, it was epic), and he maxed out with a 112-MPH exit velocity with an average velocity of 91. Those are more than solid numbers. When he does make contact, the contact is loud. Raw power like this is highly sought after and worth cultivating.

So why doesn't he have larger power numbers? An elevated ground ball rate is the culprit. Those nagging ground balls have a way of not clearing fences. But changing the swing to get more lift may give rise to more contact issues than he already has, and as already noted, it wouldn't behoove him if that rate increased. The good news is, given the way FanGraphs described his swing and its components, you could picture a reorganized approach that leads to more loft without more whiffs. It's a riddle wrapped in a conundrum, and a puzzle the Cubs will have to put together.

Alcántara is an easy guy to root for. He's flashy, fast, and has light-tower power potential. Coaches and teammates rave over his makeup, enthusiasm for baseball, and willingness and work ethic to make changes. The payoff could be enormous if the Cubs, (or a possible trade partner) can be patient with him. It could be a bumpy ride whenever he gets the call, though, and a contending team will have to balance development against current effectiveness with this player. 

The Jaguar has heard his name growled in trade rumors for years now, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him be dealt. He's already in rumors for Michael King. The Cubs have a great asset on their hands, and how they utilize it will resonate for years to come. If the youngster can somehow solve the long levers and inconsistency to make more contact, the Cubs' corner outfield will be in good hands for years to come.

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[CubinNY]

Because the actual rankings of prospects is highly subjective and prone to errors. It's something for people to get excited about or lament about. The FV thing is about the worst "ranking" that has come out. It's an ordinal measure that people treat as an interval or ratio measure. Someone who is a 50 FV is not 5 FVs better than a 45 FV prospect. 

Prospect rankings should be taken with a healthy degree of skepticism in general, but that doesn't mean they are entirely useless. They are based on something, and guys who get noticed are usually better than guys who don't. 

Alcantara will go as far as his plate discipline and swing adjustments let him. He's already good enough to play defense in MLB.