Basic Questions to Ponder as the Cubs Build Their Roster

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Having encountered the usual complaints and snark from Cubs social media, here are some quick tips to consider before you, the Cubs fan, get too cranky.

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I forgot exactly when I quit Twitter (or whatever the hell he's calling it these days), but ever since then, my experience with Cubs-related discourse—and other discourse, too—has improved immensely, thanks in part to participating in a fairly fun and knowledgeable community of Cubs and baseball fans. Naturally, some enjoy sharing the more, uh, "interesting" takes from the Cubs community, and this post was triggered in part by certain responses to the Kyle Tucker arbitration situation (which I think Trueblood explained pretty well here). Specifically, I think the complaint was that the Cubs somehow settled at $16.5 million instead of giving him the $17.5 million for which Tucker's camp filed, which is wrong on several levels. It got me to thinking that certain sites, including this one, should probably start building a sort of FAQ page or something, but this post is at least a start.

The Date(s)
Now that Tucker's 2025 salary is dealt with, we no longer have to worry about an arbitration hearing for anyone on this season's squadron, and we'll talk about arbitration a bit later. What I want to note is that with no offseason trade deadline (which might actually be a good idea, although it would have to be carefully implemented to avoid major labor implications) and no hard deadline to sign free agents (though draft-pick compensation does disappear when the Rule 4 draft starts up this summer), the only date we truly care about is spring training. In this case, the Cubs, who start the season against the Dodgers in Japan (check it out, and some other info too), will report early, with pitchers and catchers all in camp by Feb. 8 (their first workout is the next day, on the 9th) and the first full-squad workout on Feb. 14.

If your concern is that everyone gets a good start and aren't rushed or delayed (like Cody Bellinger was before showing up to spring training last season), then you should expect the main characters to be signed and in camp before those dates, and probably assume that they're all working out on their own to get into game speed, albeit without team supervision. Until those dates are imminent, though, don't freak out about an unfinished to-do list.

That Arbitration Thing
It's not a big deal anymore this year, as everyone has settled, but for the future, just understand that once a player is offered arbitration by their parent club, they have a contract for the following season. The only issue then is how much they are paid. The arbitration rules are here, and as a quick summary, because the Cubs and Kyle Tucker didn't settle by the filing deadline, they just kicked the can down the road by filing numbers because that was the requirement at said deadline, not that they would have to get a number right at that time to agree upon. Per the intro, while the Cubs have joined the ranks of "file and trial," this was a unique enough situation (and I don't think they've even gone to an arbitration hearing since Ian Happ won his before his extension) that they amicably settled on a number, which meant Tucker's camp accepted the $16.5 million salary number and nobody hates each other. I can count on one hand the number of times the Cubs didn't just get the arbitration figures over with during Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer's tenures, so this is not as big of a deal as some made it.

The Roster
I've seen so many people complain about players under contract, on the 40-man roster, and not promoting prospects, but there are roster considerations to, uh, consider. In the offseason, without being able to use the 60-day injured list, you're stuck at 40 spots, and even though there are guys that most of us would like to see ushered out the door, the Cubs themselves cannot just flippantly move guys off the roster, due to various factors including exposing players to waivers and triggering their free agency prematurely. You can, of course, use the Cubs' own roster, the one curated here at NSBB (good job guys), and probably the most invaluable resource in Cubsdom, the one maintained by Arizona Phil at The Cub Reporter, where he explains all the transaction rules pretty clearly. Phil doesn't make this stuff up, and if you want to see where he got it from, here's a link I found to the official MLB operations PDF. It seems like I'm giving out homework, but I figure if you want to be a more informed fan, the first thing you should do is, you know, learn about how the game works.

Suffice it to say that the team has more information than you (or me for that matter) about the health of a player, the likelihood that that player will bolt for another organization if released, and all that other good stuff. Also, once the season starts, they can only carry 26 players (28 in September) with pitcher limits, so that all has to be carefully weighed. If a player is sticking around, you now have some reference as to why that is.

The Money
There are plenty of other articles that address the debt service and revenue-based considerations for the Cubs and the Ricketts family, which I will defer to others. What I can say is that there are two things to address when it comes to the 40-man payroll, which is the number used for the competitive-balance tax (CBT), or the luxury tax. One is the actual annual payroll, which is what was spent on players for that season. The other is the CBT payroll, which is the number used to calculate any tax owed by the team for exceeding specific thresholds. Putting aside the fact that the Cubs are not the Dodgers, Yankees, or Mets, the CBT is designed to deter teams from going too bonkers with their payroll, doling out progressively harsher monetary and draft penalties for exceeding those thresholds too many seasons in a row. Given the Cubs' current payroll and future obligations, I am of the opinion that it doesn't make too much sense to trigger the tax, which seems to be an opinion currently shared by the Cubs (much to your chagrin, I'm sure). However, they can still spend up to $241 million in CBT payroll without being penalized (although they'll probably give themselves more room than they did in 2024), and they can also structure salaries in such a way that they can adjust the average annual value to avoid the tax while staying within budget (whatever that is, since we can't see the books). 

The Mantra
In order for the Cubs to fill spots with decent players, the main mantra is that they first must be available (whether in trade by their parent club, or as a free agent of some type), and only at that point can the Cubs try to convince the player (or the team that controls the rights to the player) to effect a change of teams. A no-trade clause doesn't absolutely preclude a trade to a team on that player's list, as the player may use it as a leverage tool. So in essence, if Nolan Arenado (don't worry, it'll never happen, for a number of reasons) had the Cubs on his no-trade list, but the Cubs were clearly better than his situation with the Cardinals, he may waive the clause and let the trade proceed. 

Secondarily, with free agency, remember the "agency" part of the phrase. The Cubs can offer all kinds of money and perks, but if the player *cough cough* Roki *cough* decides he's going to the Dodgers no matter what, not much you can do about it.

The Chaos|
We are at the point in the year where teams are being built on paper, but remember that once the games begin, anything can happen, which is part of the reason why no team (outside of video games with generously adjusted sliders) has ever gone 162-0. The good news is that, despite the Cubs' relative inaction since the Tucker trade, this squad is projected to be quite good, and Hoyer himself has stated that they aren't done yet. Keep all of this in mind, as we still have a few weeks to go before the Cubs send in their first draft for a roster that will change many times before it all ends.

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