As the Calendar Turns, Where Do Brewers and Cubs Stand?

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If the season started tomorrow, who would have the inside track to the division title?

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

A common refrain surrounding the Chicago Cubs is that they still have plenty of work to do this offseason. That's objectively, true. We’ve heard their name in connection with a couple of arms, and it isn’t a stretch to see them acquiring an additional position player to lengthen the bench. There is certainly work to be done, and we should expect them to do it.

But what if they don’t? Let’s pretend, for a moment, that the worst-case scenario unfolds. This is a world in which the Cubs are done. Maybe they add a reclamation arm or two. They scoop up a bench guy on a minor-league deal, at best. They’re certainly improved at this juncture, regardless. A National League Central contender, though, requires a bit more stretching of the imagination—especially when measuring them against the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Right now, the Brewers are the team to which the Cubs should be compared. The Cincinnati Reds remain interesting, given their additions to the pitching staff and a solid young core. But they need to prove it, the same way the Cubs do. Pittsburgh could prove to be a threat on some level, given their strength at the front of the rotation. Again, though, we haven’t seen that yet. The Brewers rule the Central. As such, it’s that group against which we should be measuring. 

While the Cubs have been able to generate some positive buzz with their winter, the same can’t necessarily be said of their rivals out of Milwaukee. The Crew lost Willy Adames to free agency, traded closer Devin Williams to the New York Yankees, and let some of their rotation depth reach free agency. But even with the additions of Kyle Tucker, Eli Morgan, and Carson Kelly, can we say beyond the shadow of a doubt that the Cubs are a better team than the Brewers? It's tough to say that, after finishing 10 games back of them in 2024.

Milwaukee featured a top-six offense last year in terms of run production, utilizing exceptional on-base skills and efficient baserunning to compensate for a lack of power. Adames led the way in the power game while adding 21 steals of his own. They’ll suffer a bit there without him. Again, though, this isn’t a team that makes their bones with power hitting. They’ll take a walk and then run you into the ground, without a real need for power. 

They’ll also get a full season out of Garrett Mitchell, a returning Christian Yelich, and a post-breakout Jackson Chourio. If Rhys Hoskins can get a bit more batted-ball luck, he should compensate for some of the power lost in Adames’s departure. Regardless, though, they have lots of ways to beat you—lots of weapons: Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, etc. Because of that, it’s very difficult to automatically declare this Cubs offense ready to surpass that of the Brewers, even with Tucker’s addition.

Don’t get it twisted, though. The Tucker trade is a massive one for the Cubs. It’s almost impossible to overstate. He should, ideally, provide them with more power than they've gotten from any one hitter in several years, and another on-base threat. With Pete Crow-Armstrong showing positive signs in the second half of 2024 and the potential for Matt Shaw to be a full-time big-leaguer from the jump in 2025, there’s potential for the Cubs to hang in the get-on-base-and-steal game that the Brewers have perfected.

The question is whether they can also outslug the Crew. The Brewers ranked only 18th in ISO last season (.155), but the Cubs were also a few spots behind them, at 21st (.151). Does the Adames subtraction work in conjunction with the Tucker addition to at least flip them? It seems possible. Throw in a fully healthy Seiya Suzuki in the DH spot and a definitely-for-real breakout from Miguel Amaya, and the potential is there. 

The possibility exists that the Tucker addition alone pushes the Cubs past Milwaukee on that side of the ball. Given how much the Crew excelled in their brand of offensive baseball, however, the only comfortable declaration to make is that the gap has narrowed. 

One advantage the Cubs did have over their rivals last year was in the starting pitching game. Chicago sat sixth in starting ERA (3.77) and ninth in ERA- (94). The Brewers, meanwhile, were 17th in starting ERA (4.09) and 16th in ERA- (99). Milwaukee has since lost Frankie Montas and Joe Ross, but they acquired Nestor Cortes and are primed to welcome Brandon Woodruff back into the mix. That gives them a front five of Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Aaron Civale, Tobias Myers, and Cortes. Aaron Ashby and DL Hall look to be first in line for spot starts. That’s a strong starting group that should be improved, with depth that is high on upside, even if the ability to eat innings is still in question. 

Compare that to the Cubs. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and Matthew Boyd figure to be the starting five on Opening Day, barring another frontline addition. Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown are the next men up, with Caleb Kilian and/or Cade Horton lurking if they can stay healthy and clear some developmental hurdles.

The Cubs feature three starters who finished inside the top 50 in fWAR in 2024. Milwaukee has two, with the addition of Cortes. Woodruff was very much in that group in his last full season, as well. Of any phase, this is the most difficult one to separate. The apparent desire for the Cubs to add another starter before winter’s end could prove to be the separator. 

It isn’t as close on the relief side, however. The Brewers featured the second-best bullpen ERA last year (3.11), while the Cubs sat 12th (3.81). Not bad, considering the latter’s early-season woes in relief. Milwaukee held an edge virtually everywhere in the relief game, with the exception of strikeouts. But are they due for regression, following a year in which their opposing BABIP was just .266 and they stranded 78.1 percent of baserunners? Especially given some lackluster velocity & batted-ball trends? That's to say nothing of trading away their all-world closer. 

If there’s an argument in favor of the Crew here, it’s that they have a bit clearer a picture as far as their relief corps goes. We know the group should run deep. Trevor Megill, Jared Koenig, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson, Nick Mears, and Elvis Peguero should comprise a healthy portion of their ‘pen. Abner Uribe, Connor Thomas, and the aforementioned Hall should also be heavily involved. The Cubs are set to roll with Porter Hodge, Nate Pearson, Tyson Miller, and Eli Morgan, before you get into a bunch of question marks. Luke Little? Julian Merryweather? Ethan Roberts? Rob Zastryzny? Intrigue, sure. Reliability, not so much.

The defensive aspect will be intriguing for both groups. The Cubs should be improved in the outfield, courtesy of Tucker’s addition (and, by extension, Suzuki’s continued subtraction). The middle infield is still elite. Michael Busch played an excellent first base in the second half. There’s almost no way they can be worse at third base, given that Christopher Morel won’t be manning the spot for half the season. As such, you really have to like the Cubs here.

Milwaukee has an elite outfield, a very good second baseman, and an excellent backstop in William Contreras. They’re below average at first, lost their well-above-average-before-2024 shortstop, and have similar questions to what the Cubs have at third (without the benefit of “it can’t get any worse”). As buoyed as they were by their outfield play—and could very well be again in ’25—this is one area where the Cubs could be better.

It's important to note that everything at this point in the offseason is an on-paper comparison. We haven’t seen new additions suit up for either team, with each side still likely to see another move or three before we hit the middle of February. But if the season was to start tomorrow, who would we consider to have the edge? 

The gap has narrowed on the offensive side, and maybe even flipped in the Cubs’ favor. But we saw too much good out of Milwaukee and too much average from the Cubs last year to make a firm declaration of Chicago's superiority. Starting pitching looks to be a dead heat. The Crew have the advantage in relief, courtesy of their clarity, while the Cubs have the defensive edge given their infield configuration.

It’s close. The Cubs have drawn the gap to something more reasonable, but there’s still plenty of time for them to take the upper hand before the games start to matter.

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