Roki Sasaki Will Probably Sign with the Dodgers, but What If the Cubs Land Him Instead?

[Brandon Glick]

The Japanese phenom will officially be posted some time this offseason. It may feel inevitable that he’ll be wearing Dodger Blue come 2025, but maybe Cubs fans shouldn’t lose hope just yet.

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

It was just last year that Yoshinobu Yamamoto left Nippon Professional Baseball and became the most coveted free agent in the sport. He was the most-hyped Japanese import since Shohei Ohtani, who had made the trek to MLB seven years ago. Notably, Yamamoto signed for 12 years and $325 million as a true free agent, while Ohtani was made available via the international amateur posting system and had to settle for a minor-league contract with the Los Angeles Angels.

Now, the latest Japanese superstar is coming to America, and he has elected to follow in Ohtani's footsteps. Per his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, Roki Sasaki will be posted in the coming months (or, more likely, in the next handful of weeks). Sasaki first became a household name in the States while dominating the 2023 World Baseball Classic, at 21 years old. He struck out 11 hitters in just 7 2/3 innings, forming an unstoppable triumvirate of aces with Yamamoto and Ohtani that would pave the way to Japan's third WBC title.

In total, his Nippon Professional Baseball résumé reads like a video game stat line: 29-15 record, 2.10 ERA, 505 strikeouts, 88 walks, all in 394 2/3 innings in 64 starts over four seasons. However, because no player is perfect, there are injury concerns with Sasaki, including a torn oblique and lingering right arm soreness that cost him a number of starts in 2024. His career high in innings is 129 1/3 (set back in 2022), and he had just 111 this year, across 18 starts.

Nevertheless, he’s going to garner the attention of every franchise in MLB, thanks to his combination of dominance on the mound and the cheapness of his salary. What's fascinating about the Marines' decision to post Sasaki now is the financial ramifications of doing so. Because he's not yet 25 years old, the Japanese star can only sign a minimal deal this offseason. Depending on when he's posted, Sasaki will be eligible for a signing bonus maxing out at roughly $5-$7 million, with smaller-market teams having a larger pool of international bonus money available to them. 

Had Sasaki and the Marines waited until 2026 to access the posting system, the pitcher could have received a contract in excess of $400 million, with the Marines reaping the rewards of the associated 20% posting fee. Just last year, the Orix Blue Wave were given more than $50 million as part of the Yamamoto signing. Sasaki badly wanted to make the trip Stateside, though, and his contract compelled the team to allow that.

The heavy assumption around the game right now is that Sasaki will join Ohtani and Yamamoto as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those two combined to sign contracts exceeding $1 billion with L.A. last offseason, and it isn't hard to imagine Sasaki wanting to form the greatest international triumvirate in the sport's long history. It should be expected that Sasaki will end up in L.A. The West Coast is often favored by Japanese players, given its relative proximity to their home nation, and the Dodgers' status as baseball's best team should be appealing to a player who has yet to win a Pacific League pennant with the Marines.

However, there's one team located in the middle of the country that should be a sneaky suitor for the Japanese phenom. The Chicago Cubs have made tremendous strides in turning their brand into an international one, and they are one of just five major league teams that has employed 10 or more Japanese players. Ever since signing Kosuke Fukodome back in 2007, the Cubs' pipeline of notable Japanese players is strong: So Taguchi, Koji Uehara, Hisanori Takashi, Munenori Kawaski, Yu Darvish, Kyuji Fujikawa, Tsuyoshi Wada, Seiya Suzuki, and Shota Imanaga.

Those latter two players are arguably the Cubs' best hitter and pitcher right now, and they'll surely make a sales pitch to Sasaki, as Ohtani and Yamamoto are doing for the Dodgers. They're also exiting (we hope) their latest rebuild, posting consecutive 83-79 seasons and loaded with one of the best farm systems in the sport.

For what it's worth, the Cubs also have more than $1 million more in extra international signing bonus room than the Dodgers do. It might not mean a lot to someone who is already artificially limiting how much he can earn, but Sasaki will be demanding a majority of any team's bonus pool. Having more to spend means the Cubs can give Sasaki more and have a little left over to spend on another player.

Both the Dodgers and Cubs have a need in the rotation for another surefire starter, and (assuming Ohtani is fully healthy in 2025), Sasaki could choose to form a triumvirate in L.A. or a 1-2 combo in the Windy City with Imanaga. Plus, the Cubs could offer Sasaki a plausible lane to developing into the staff ace, assuming he delivers on his huge potential.

Unlike the race for Juan Soto, money won’t be the deciding factor for Sasaki. The Cubs have no excuse to not go full bore in their pursuit of the “The Monster of the Reiwa Era.” It isn't everyday a team can land a generational ace for the same cost as Hunter Renfroe's player option. There are a lot of paths the Wrigley Field inhabitants can take towards having a successful offseason, though none are as straightforward as landing Sasaki.

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[Bertz]

I think the argument against the Dodgers is mostly about staying out of the shadow of Ohtani and Yamamoto.  The dimwitted Jim Bowden actually had a great point about how by coming over early and foregoing a huge salary, Sasaki is going to likely be counting on major sponsorship dollars.  So even setting aside anything like pride, the Dodgers might be a bad fit financially with Ohtani sucking up all the air in every room he's in.

The Padres seem the next most logical.  Playing with his idol Darvish, west coast, and fueling that Dodgers/Padres rivalry.  

I feel like the Cubs have as good of an argument as anyone else though. Still a very large market. Darvish evangelizes for the city, the team, and Hottovy.  We also have two Japanese stars, but guys who would slot behind Roki in Q Score.  The team did a phenomenal job of onboarding Imanaga last year culturally,  in terms of his performance, and maybe most importantly his health.

While it's certainly unlikely he comes here, it also doesn't feel like a pipe dream.