Second-Guessing Cubs Drafts: The 2007 MLB Draft & First-Round Pick Josh Vitters

[Post Count Padder]

The hit rate on draft picks is very low in Major League Baseball. But we're going to second-guess picks from the past anyway. Isn't that what the offseason is for?

Image courtesy of © Jerry Lai-Imagn Images

Playing armchair quarterback (or general manager) to your team's play and transactions is easy. You also trust your organization to scout profusely and plan and discuss the best ways forward.

That being said, I was dubious leading up to the 2007 MLB Draft regarding how the Cubs would proceed and immediately peeved at their first-round pick (and for years afterward).

I (and several others) salivated at the thought of selecting Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters. He was a sound defender behind the plate with big power potential. Despite Geovany Soto's breakout in the minors in 2007 (which was just months old at this point), there was not much in the cupboard regarding catching and Wieters would have been a very nice addition to the system.

Instead, the Cubs used the No. 3 pick in the draft to select high school third baseman Josh Vitters. Vitters was a smooth hitter with raw power who was seen as a slight reach but still had potential. The concerns were if his power would ever fully develop and how much time his transition to wood bats would require.

Fast forward, and Vitters hit well enough in the minor leagues. He would be a top 100 prospect for the next three seasons, though he never reached 20 home runs in a season and continued to face concerns about his long-term power potential in the majors. Vitters posted impressive numbers as a 22-year-old in Triple-A in 2012, with an .870 OPS. This was good enough for a cup of coffee in what would be his only call-up to the majors. He hit just .121 in 36 games and returned to Iowa. After that, Vitters battled injury and ineffectiveness and was out of the Cubs system by 2015. He spent a few years toiling in independent ball before hanging up his cleats. He is somehow still just 35 years old as of this writing.

Wieters never became a superstar but tallied four All-Star Game appearances and two Gold Gloves for the Orioles and helped them reach the playoffs four times. Injuries played a role in his sharp decline in his 30s, not uncommon for catchers. But he still was one of the better catchers in the majors during this time and averaged a 3.5 bWAR per 162 games during his time with the Orioles. It's easy to imagine what would have been possible if the roles had been reversed. Maybe Wieters stabilizes the catcher position for the Cubs and hits better when playing in a weaker division than the AL East. Maybe Soto is used as a trade chip, or the two form an impressive hitting tandem behind the dish.

We can also look at the bigger picture and see a butterfly effect. The Cubs' next pick in the draft was, in fact, used on a catcher: future MVP third baseman Josh Donaldson. Donaldson was used in the 2008 trade with the Athletics to acquire Rich Harden, and then the Athletics converted him to third base. Maybe that deal never happens. Maybe the Cubs opt to make that position change, and Donaldson becomes entrenched at the hot corner.

Or maybe the Cubs never picked Donaldson in the draft after selecting Wieters. Maybe instead, the Cubs gambled on one of two players who went in the second round, Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton or Freddie Freeman. Maybe this will lead to the Cubs never acquiring Anthony Rizzo, with Freeman holding down first base. Maybe the drafting of Wieters leads to the Cubs continuing to contend in the early 2010s instead of struggling to stay above water before tanking and bringing Theo Epstein aboard.

Or maybe Wieters flames out, never reaching his potential, and/or the Cubs' coaching and instructors fail him in his growth. This was not uncommon for Cubs hitting prospects in the 2000s in what is likely an indictment of our system at the time (see Felix Pie, Brian Dopirak, Nic Jackson, Ryan Harvey, Tyler Colvin, etc.). Then, we could wonder if Wieters was the correct choice. And just maybe Vitters became what we imagined, and Kris Bryant will not be taken in 2013, or the next few drafts will be impacted.

It is all a series of "maybes," and you could play this game with virtually anything. It is somewhat ludicrous to suggest a simple draft choice could have changed the Cubs' fortunes in the near future. Or is it? Imagining various "what might've been" scenarios is still fun. What other draft picks could we second-guess?

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[Rex Buckingham]

I'm fine with not second-guessing any of the picks, trades, etc. before 2016. We got a World Series. Sure, the world (and the Cubs franchise - relatively speaking from what we hoped for) has gone in the toilet since, but at least we'll always have the 2016 team. 

[calicubs]

Vitters battled injury yes but infectiveness NO. Infectiveness on the organization on as a whole. His injury was a very painful scar tissue pulling on his abbs that was easily fixed in a surgery that took 25 minutes and let someone in the cubs org know but they ignored him; IGNORED their TOP PROSPECT. This injury is talked about in the athletic. Secondly, that all you sports writers get wrong about Vitters is Dale Sveum the manager of the 2012 cubs league team. Sveum was the reason why Vitters didn’t pan out in the majors. Sveum destroyed the development of young players and this is reported everywhere including mlb.com. Look at Vitters stats before big league. Vitters was thriving before Sveum. Look at Sveum coaching career, jumped from team to team bc he’s an idiot and you could hear screaming at the players all over the field and in the clubhouse. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, calicubs said:

Vitters battled injury yes but infectiveness NO. Infectiveness on the organization on as a whole. His injury was a very painful scar tissue pulling on his abbs that was easily fixed in a surgery that took 25 minutes and let someone in the cubs org know but they ignored him; IGNORED their TOP PROSPECT. This injury is talked about in the athletic. Secondly, that all you sports writers get wrong about Vitters is Dale Sveum the manager of the 2012 cubs league team. Sveum was the reason why Vitters didn’t pan out in the majors. Sveum destroyed the development of young players and this is reported everywhere including mlb.com. Look at Vitters stats before big league. Vitters was thriving before Sveum. Look at Sveum coaching career, jumped from team to team bc he’s an idiot and you could hear screaming at the players all over the field and in the clubhouse. 

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