You're The Cubs GM! Plotting My Offseason: Sign Rotation, Catching Help

[Brian Kelder]

As a veteran of nearly 20 years of marriage, to-do lists have become a big part of my life. In 2004, the list was often written on a notepad, using ink to cross off finished tasks. It's now migrated to the phone, and one can just delete it when done (but don't try to delete it without finishing, that's a big no-no). The Chicago Cubs have a lengthy to-do list—surprisingly so, given their salary structure. What can we expect, and what should the North Siders do this offseason?

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

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The Roster, As It Stands
With Cody Bellinger opting in(also here and here, we've covered this well, right?), the Cubs have their entire lineup locked in and returning from last season. This is both a blessing and a curse. Roster certainty is not bad, but locking in to a team that was merely league-average in runs scored in 2024 does not fill fans' bellies with the excitement of the upcoming Thanksgiving sweet potato casserole. Power is a need that has not been addressed.

The pitching picture is similar. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon are stalwarts. There is a hodgepodge of hopefully cromulent starters waiting in the wings behind them, too: Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton, and Javier Assad. There is a clear need to add reliable arms, however, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

The To-Do List: Add power, both at the plate and on the mound. Diversify. This lineup simply cannot be run back as it was last season. Some added pop is needed. Pitching-wise, meanwhile, the Cubs are also lacking in wipeout quality arms, but they likely won't spend to find one.

40-Man Decisions
Jed Hoyer has received some deserved credit for fixing a bullpen on the fly, but looking at the 40-man roster shows the cost. Nine current residents of roster spots, plus the recently released Drew Smyly and the departed Kyle Hendricks, are simply disposable. He's had to try to forge quality out of quantity. While that does occasionally yield a Jorge López, it also means that spots are wasted on the following guys, who should be removed immediately:

Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Trey Wingenter, Keegan Thompson

A big-market team needs to do a better job of identifying talent and doing what it takes to bring it in, not wasting spots on guys that even hardcore fans would be stretched to identify. These easy non-tenders (in combination with the cluster of players they waived Monday to make room on the roster, including Jimmy Herget and Christian Bethancourt) would save the Cubs $10-15 million.

How much do the Cubs have to spend? Let's estimate that they will be $50 million below the tax threshold, given their financial obligations detailed at FanGraphs. Practically speaking, it will be less, assuming we can take Tom Ricketts at his word and that they will stay just below the luxury tax. Jed Hoyer also has stated in the past that he wants some wiggle room, so let's for conversation sake shave another $10 million off the projected spending. The Cubs will have around $40 million to play with if this holds true. Of course, the Chicago Cubs should blow past the tax this year and build a true contender, but we'll try to live in reality for this one.

So what else is on the Chicago to-do list?

1. A catching option. For my money, you cannot go into this season with Miguel Amaya as the sole player at the position. Catching is generally not an offensive position, but the black hole level of play for 2024 (except for August) is devastating. With a .645 OPS and 83 WRC+, Amaya should be a part of the solution, but not seen as the only option for a team that sees itself as contending.
   
   Easy Solution: Danny Jansen as a free agent. No, he's not a great hitter or terribly exciting, but he would be a cheaper option, and if Moises Ballesteros is ready you can easily just cast him aside.
2. Two starting pitchers: When you look at this team with a slightly pessimistic bent, there's a strong case for regression from all of the pitchers in the rotation. Imanaga? Unless he's a true ace-level pitcher, he's bound to regress. Steele? Health is a perennial question for him. Taillon and Assad? Wrigley Field played as a pitchers' park, and these two were significantly worse on the road than at home. Horton and Brown? Health won't allow them to start in 2025, at least for a full season. They aren't built up for it well enough. Jordan Wicks, disappointingly, just didn't look like a pitcher you want to pencil into a contender's rotation. He performed poorly even when he got onto the mound.
   
   The rotation is lacking at the top end, and also in depth. It's not a crisis, and this could all look quite foolish in a year. With the lineup set at the moment, though, the starting pitching is a logical area to address with this $40 million. There is a top of the rotation type arm available, in Max Fried. If he's interested in reuniting with good friend Dansby Swanson, and the Cubs will pay the estimated $30 million per year, this is a great match.
   
   Of course, if it's only $40 million dollars to spend, this is too much to spend on one player and address the other needs. Shane Bieber (on a pillow deal), or maybe Walker Buehler or Matthew Boyd, would make some sense as cheaper options who could provide stellar production in the mold of the New York Mets' last offseason. This is the more likely path than Fried, given the tendencies this front office has shown.
3. Probably two or three relief options: This could go so many different directions, but the main idea is that Jed Hoyer needs to have more predictable players in the pen. The hope would be that not so many slots on the 40-man would be taken up by "hey, maybe this guy will work out" types.

With $40 million, this would take the Cubs out of contention for any of the major free agents, but not for any trades. The Cubs could dangle literally everyone on the roster besides Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson for upgrades, and should do so if the return is a batter with around a .900 OPS.

How should Cub fans feel about this offseason? For this writer, it's (as the kids say) mid. Their self-imposed financial constraints preclude a major, franchise-altering addition. The Cubs are full of average to good players; they will need to get creative in order to make that final leap to greatness. Only time will tell if Jed Hoyer can be creative enough to pull off that level of success.

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