Juan Soto's Free Agent Saga Won't Include the Chicago Cubs

[Brandon Glick]

Primed for a contract in excess of half a billion dollars, the outfielder is about to strike it rich. Will the big-market Chicago Cubs even bother playing in the deep end of the free agency pool?

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images

One year after the most famous free agency saga of all time, Juan Soto is heading into the land of unclaimed superstars expecting to incite a bidding war of his own. 

Now, Soto isn't exactly the player that Shohei Ohtani is. He's an all-time great hitter who marries power with patience in a way the sport hasn't really seen since the prime days of Barry Bonds, but he lacks the extra dimensions of major defensive or baserunning value. Ohtani is a two-way threat who dwarfs anything baseball has ever seen, having garnered two MVPs and a top-five finish in Cy Young voting, all before hitting free agency.

It became clear that Ohtani would break the $500 million threshold early on in his free agency endeavor, with reports suggesting he could even break the $600 million barrier. His status as the game's most important free agent ever grew so loud that there were fans speculating over the name of his dog. And who can forget when it was falsely reported that he was on a flight to Toronto, supposedly to discuss a contract with the Blue Jays?

As good a player as Soto is, he isn't going to cause the stir that Ohtani did. His career OPS of .953 is comically high, but he can't do that while also firing off 150 innings of 3.00 ERA ball. Soto is the perfect hitter; the ideal version of the modern offensive player. Ohtani is a singularity that defies what we know about baseball.

All that being said, Soto is still going to get a monster contract in free agency this winter. Recent reports suggest he could push for as much as $600 million, which is the sort of figure Ohtani was supposedly dabbling in before securing a (heavily-deferred) $700 million payday. It isn't outrageous to think that a 26-year-old who's been 60% better than the average hitter for his career (160 OPS+) could push for that kind of money, especially when considering the teams who'll be bidding for his services over the next decade or more. His edge on Ohtani is that youth; he's three years younger than Ohtani was when he attained free agency.

The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, fresh off doing battle in the World Series, will be serious players for Soto. As the incumbent, the Yankees should be looked at as the favorites, especially since Soto knows signing with them means a decade or more of hitting in front of Aaron Judge and taking aim at the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will be involved with every superstar free agent that hits the market in perpetuity. They spent more than $1 billion on Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto alone last offseason, and their pockets run as deep as anyone’s.

The third team presumed to be in the race is the New York Mets. Perhaps the only team with more money to spend than the 2024 World Series participants, the Mets have been a spending juggernaut under current owner Steve Cohen. They made a surprising run to the NLCS this year, and they now have the chance to pair Soto with Francisco Lindor for the next decade. Rest assured that if Soto doesn’t pick the Mets, it won’t be because they were outbid for his services.

So, where does that leave the Cubs in this equation? They’re the fourth-most valuable franchise in the sport, worth at least $1.2 billion more than the Mets. Their 2023 revenue of $506 million ranked behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. And the Ricketts family, helmed by Joe and Tom, has a net worth of $4 billion. By all accounts, they have the resources to enter the bidding war for Soto.

Unfortunately, any Cubs fan knows the reality of the situation: the team probably isn’t going to be a serious competitor for the best non-Ohtani free agent in years, and possibly ever. The largest contracts in the franchise’s history are Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184 million deal (which he signed in free agency when he was 26) and Dansby Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million pact. No player on the team has ever had an AAV higher than Jon Lester’s $25.8 million (for a long-term deal) or Cody Bellinger’s $26.7 million (for a short-term deal). That means the Cubs haven’t gone to a place that small-market teams like the Brewers and Diamondbacks have: a $200-million contract.

Soto, of course, is going to blow that figure out of the water. He’ll probably triple it, and he’ll be worth it if he stays healthy. Seiya Suzuki and Bellinger are good players, and staples on the current iteration of the Cubs, but trading one or both to free up right field and payroll space for Soto would be a no-brainer. Alas, expecting the Cubs to dip their toes in free agent water that deep is a fool’s errand.

So, as the fireworks unfold and rumors fly, don’t expect the Cubs to elicit more than a perfunctory mention from the national pundits as a suitor for Soto. Agent Scott Boras will keep tossing their name out in the discussion as a means to drive up the bidding, but don’t get your hopes up. The best hitter in baseball is now a free agent, and the Chicago Cubs are going to willingly remove themselves from consideration.

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