In Isaac Paredes's Home Debut, Don't Sweat the Well. Watch the Left Fielder.

[Matthew Trueblood]

Much has been made of the fit (or lack thereof) between the Cubs' top trade-deadline acquisition and his new home park. He might hit a few fewer home runs in his new digs, but Wrigley Field figures to create more problems for defenses than for Isaac Paredes.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

It's easy (though often inaccurate, even in itself) to estimate how many home runs will be gained or lost by a batter in the transition from one home park to another. That binary is dangerous, though, because it's more than a superficial oversimplification, and because the broader actual spectrum of possibilities also shifts some other dynamics that need to be accounted for. Isaac Paredes will hit fewer home runs at Wrigley Field than he did at Tropicana Field, but the non-homers won't all turn into outs--and he might just get more hits in the bargain.

First, keep in mind that many balls that don't quite become home runs in a given park (especially down either foul line) become doubles, rather than outs. Paredes's first hit in a Cubs uniform is an example. It was hit down the line in Cincinnati, and though the same batted ball would have cleared the notched wall in Tampa Bay, this one banged off the wall, never giving the defense a chance to do anything with it. That two-bagger was worth less than a home run, to be sure, but it's worth about two-thirds of what a home run is--and again, there was never any real chance of it being anything other than a double.

Not every ball will be so decisive, but the threat Paredes poses forces defenses to think about how to align themselves to take away those doubles down the line, too. This year, while he was in Tampa Bay, we've seen left fielders play him fairly close to the line, but shallow.

Of the 139 right-handed batters who have seen at least 1,000 pitches this year, Paredes ranks 122nd in average starting depth for opposing left fielders, at 299 feet. Teams guard the line a little bit against him, but they don't play especially deep. He doesn't hit the ball hard enough to force them to play any deeper, and often, when he does get into one, it's going over the fence anyway.

That was true at Tropicana Field, at least. And at Tropicana Field, the short porch down the left-field line also made the left fielder's job easier, in general. The ball couldn't get very deep in the corner; the corner just didn't get very deep.

It's hard to defend that cluster of batted balls along the line, but fielders cheated that way and stayed shallow enough to cut off a lot of his hard-hit balls down there, holding him to singles, like this:

Sometimes, their sound positioning can even allow them to take away would-be doubles, like this:

 

That all works nicely, at parks with neat, shallow corners; a little foul territory down the lines; and/or padding on the walls. With that well behind you, though, everything changes a bit. Defending out to 355 feet in the corner is a different animal.

Because of Wrigley's shallow left-center power alley, a left fielder can cheat toward the line even more--but they have to play deeper. If they don't, they risk having the ball fly right over their heads, like this:

Again, at Tropicana Field, the risk associated with that kind of play is virtually nil. Most balls Paredes hits over the head of a left fielder there leave the park, and those that don't can't go very far. That same ball at Wrigley kicks off the bricks at the right edge of the well, though, and the trailing runner (who started the play at first base) scores, instead of having to stop at third.

With no runners on base, the fielder's positioning probably changes nothing about that play. It ends up a double, either way. In broad strokes, however, the fielder has to play deeper, because plenty of balls that were homers at the Trop will be deep into the well at Wrigley, and you can't go into that corner at anywhere near full speed. It's a danger to your health, and it invites a ricochet right past you if you don't get to the ball before it gets to the wall.

Once they make that adjustment, though, the bill comes due. Paredes isn't one-dimensional. His power is all to left field, and mostly right down the line, but he makes a lot of contact, and that includes plenty of batted balls that look like this.

This ball fell in, but that's because Milwaukee's (now Cincinnati's) Joey Wiemer was playing the way a left fielder will often have to at Wrigley: deeper, guarding the long corner at Miller Park. Paredes will find a few more singles in his new home park, because the left fielder will have to give up more shallow balls and line drives toward the gaps in order to defend the tough corner toward which he hits so many of his batted balls.

It's fair to note that Paredes's profile takes a hit from this move, but the danger of overstating that impact is enormous. Moreover, it's easy to miss the fringe benefits he'll realize. In the Statcast Era (a phrase which we can treat as a bit less ludicrous, now; we're in its 10th year), Kris Bryant has the most batted balls into the 15-degree spray angle wedge starting at the left-field line by any Cubs hitter in a season, at 84. That was in his MVP campaign.

Paredes wears Bryant's number and plays Bryant's position. He won't win an MVP award, but he's going to easily eclipse Bryant in the number of balls he sends screaming toward the left-field corner at Wrigley. He already has 86 such batted balls this year, and he had 99 of them last year. It might not yield as many homers as if he concentrated his power stroke on left-center instead of left field, but Paredes will find plenty of hits in his new home. There might even be a few new ones out there.

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