Cubs 2024 MLB Draft Day Two: Cubs Continue Position Player Run

[Jason Ross]

Entering the draft, many, myself included, expected the Cubs to go with a pitcher-heavy draft, seeing as the general consensus with the current state of the system was that the hitters were the star of the show and the team lacked some pitching depth. Instead, the Cubs selected two position players on Day 1 and continued the trend on Day 2. Who did the Cubs pick, and how should you feel about it?

 

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Day two is always interesting in the draft as teams balance the draft budget, upside, positional need, and signability. With last night's selections of Cam Smith and Cole Mathis, the belief was that the Cubs probably had some savings to roll into today. The Cubs started the day off with not one but two prep bats and proceeded to select six more position players. One thing I've learned under Dan Kantrovitz is that when you expect the Cubs to zig, they zag. 

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Round Three: Ronny Cruz, SS (HS, Senior)
It's a bit of an off-the-board pick here, as Cruz was unranked by many industry publications (a common theme with the Cubs' Day two selections). However, I'd implore everyone to suspend their worry about draft rankings; these are super subjective, and the margin for "who's a top-300" prospect and who's in the 400s is... razor thin. Cruz, just 17 years old, is a lanky, tall shortstop with major power; he hit a ball nearly 108mph off the bat at the Draft Combine in Arizona for a towering home run. While unlikely to stick at shortstop long term, Cruz has the power and the athleticism to stick at third long term. The question here will be, "Does he make enough contact?" Regardless, the upside here is pretty high if the Cubs can work on quieting down his swing and improving his approach. 

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Round Four: Ty Southisene, SS (HS, Senior)
I'll admit this much: this is one of my favorite Day 2 picks. Diminutive in size, the 5'9" shortstop from Nevada possesses impressive barrel control with solid bat-to-ball skills. Southisene was committed to Tennessee, which has been one of the SEC's powerhouse schools as of late, which gives the shortstop a solid pedigree. Making him more interesting is that he seems likely to stick at the premium position. Power hasn't been his strong suit (yet), but reports are that with his strong barrel control, adding a little loft, quieting some swing mechanics down, and adding some muscle, he could see enough power added to the profile. At age 19, he's one of the older prep prospects, but he will likely see a start at Myrtle Beach by the end of the season and should be a fun follow. 

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Round Five: Ariel Armas, C (San Diego University, Junior)
Armas is the premier defensive catcher in all of college baseball. That's not hyperbole either; he was selected by Rawlings on their defensive team of the year and led the country in defensive runs saved. Not a great hitter, Armas hit .298 and slugged six home runs on the season, hitting much better as the season went along. Armas also posted strong exit velocities, which makes you think that a swing adjustment could create more power. There probably isn't a starting catcher's profile here, but his strong defensive ability could vault Armas into the conversation to be a backup catcher at the MLB level. While I don't think he will be a massive money-saver, there could be some slot saving, considering he's probably not a fifth-round talent.

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Round Six: Ryan Gallagher, RHP (UC Santa Barbara, Junior)
The Cubs, under Kantrovitz, seemingly always take a pitcher who's fresh off Tommy John surgery (Cade Horton and Jaxon Wiggins, to name two), and they've done it again with Gallagher, who missed all of his sophomore season in 2023 with the injury. Returning as a Junior, Gallagher is your traditional "pitchability" guy; he lives in the low 90s and has a handful of pitches in his arsenal. Standing 6'4" and 220 lbs, there's an argument to be made that the Cubs, who excel at extracting extra velocity, could add a little to his profile. Perhaps, as well, he'd be more like a Jameson Taillon or Javier Assad, where they could work in some seam-shifted wake to his repertoire as well. While the upside is limited to a back-end rotation starter, there's still MLB upside if things break correctly, even if there is more floor than ceiling.

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Round Seven: Ivan Brethowr, OF (UC Santa Barbara, Junior)
Not satisfied with just one UCSB Gaucho, the Cubs returned to the well with the next pick, selecting Gallagher's teammate, Ivan Brethowr. Brethowr has some of the most impressive raw power in the draft, with some scouts giving him 70 grades on his pop. Aaron Judge is a comp that he gets a bunch of, but I'll be honest and tell you I see Pete Alonso more, even if it's just for his setup. These comparisons are always unfair, but Brethowr can pay massive dividends if he hits the ball enough. Sporting an arm strong enough for right field, this is a fun back end day two selection to keep an eye on. There are concerns about contact ability with a power profile this big, but he will be a fun follow as sneaky value. 

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Round Eight: Edgar Alvarez, 1B (Nicholls State, Senior)
This might be the most fun pick on day two if you believe his batted-ball profile and the metrics behind him. As a 23-year-old, fringy defender, Alvarez has to hit and hit he has. He has, as Joe Doyle called, "elite" contact ability and showed impressive barrel control. The lefty hit over .400, slugged over .500, was named a conference gold-glover, a Rawlings second-team All-American, and showed his clutch gene by hitting go-ahead home runs in two games during Nicholls States' regionals. Alvarez is fun. He's a first base prospect, so he's got to keep hitting, but it doesn't get more fun than this in terms of picks this late on day two. I'm going to be keeping my eyes wide open on him.

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Round Nine: Brooks Caple, RHP (Lamar University, Senior)
Caple is the first "senior sign" the Cubs have selected, and it took eight rounds to get there. Caple is huge, standing over 6'6". His fastball velocity varies considerably, as he sits in the high 80s to low 90s, but according to MLB.com, he can hit 97mph... which is quite the spread. The tall righty was named the Southland Conference pitcher of the year in 2024. The Cubs will likely give him a chance to start, but with the size and the peak velocity, Caple will probably be ticketed for the bullpen in the long term. That said, if the Cubs can use his frame and extension and squeeze some velo out of him, there's a possible very good reliever in there.

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Round Ten: Matt Halbach, 3b (UC San Diego, Junior)
I am not sure the Cubs' draft plans were "take all of the third basemen," but with their four players ticketed toward the position, it feels that way! Unlike the others the Cubs drafted at the position, Halbach is less of a masher and more of a hit tool player, but don't let that make you think he can't hit either. Halbach was a top performer at the Cape Code League in 2023 (a data point the Cubs care a lot about!) and was off to a flying start in 2024 when he got hurt and missed 19 games. Halbach is a solid enough defensive third baseman that he could realistically stick here. Coming in as a tenth-round selection, it's hard not to think the Cubs found some real value here. It was a healthy season for the Junior from UCSD, and he'd have likely parlayed that into a much higher pick.

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Overall thoughts:
This is a more fun group on day two than you usually see. There are some real gem possibilities, and no one feels like they're nothing. The least sexy pick was likely Armas, and he's arguably the best defensive catcher in the draft. They took a handful of swings on the upside, with Cruz, Brethowr, and Alvarez all with real power potential. Gallagher and Caple look like they have interesting enough pitch mixes and stuff that they could eventually make an MLB roster, Halbach is fresh off an injury but has intriguing stuff, and my favorite pick, Southisene, with a bit of Mookie Betts (thanks @CaliforniaRaisin) in his profile! 

Pumping the breaks a bit, however, we have to remember that there are reasons these kids are going on day two and not one. They represent a fun upside but a real risk. For every bit of Mookie Betts in Southisene resides all of the short-king-shortstops who have failed before him. For all of the excitement of Edgar Alvarez or Ivan Brethhowr's power potential are all of the corner position players with 65 or 70-grade power who struck out too many times to ever use it—most of, if not all of, these players will probably fizzle out somewhere.

But the Cubs' strategy was taking real chances on these players and spreading the love. There's only a single senior in the class, and you could probably argue that a handful of these players will be picked later than they deserve to go, which should give the Cubs more bullets in the chamber to find something out of these rounds. I think it's a pretty good haul, but only time will tell.

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