Ian Happ is Having a Laugh-Out-Loud July. What Does It Mean for His Future?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

It's hard to be patient and farsighted enough to evaluate a streaky hitter as a player. The Cubs' left fielder makes it closer to impossible. Let's try, anyway.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

I think I’m starting to come around on Ian Happ. Is his defense somewhat overrated? Probably. Would you like more consistency & sustainability out of his offensive output? Certainly. Is he too stoic to be a face-of-the-franchise type? I, personally, think so. But when he’s going in the way that he has in the last several weeks, he’s a rare catalyst for an otherwise (mostly) dormant Chicago Cubs lineup. Not that it’s only this recent stretch that has made me realize Happ’s value to the lineup. He’s been quite good since the start of May--even if my own perception is only just catching up to that fact.

At the end of April, Happ had a .216 average, a .333 OBP, and 29 strikeouts across 120 plate appearances. His ISO was a mere .098. His wRC+ was 93. The latter figure indicates that Happ was below-average, but it's not nearly as bad as we might’ve perceived.

I did, however, wonder in the early days of May if his lack of power was wrought by too much patience. While there was a boost in the power game the following month – and, subsequently, the wRC+ figure – perception still wasn’t working in Happ’s favor by the end of it. His strikeout rate jumped another five percentage points, nearly touching 30. He was walking less often. And so, while his ISO did experience a significant jump as the month wore on, the overall numbers still just were not working.

Things changed in June, however. The strikeout rate remained high (27.4%), but the walk rate climbed back up to 16.0% for the month and the power continued to manifest (.256 ISO). He hit only .244, but reached base at a .387 clip and supplied regular power. You can compensate for some of the lower-performing categories when the rest look like that. That’s a version of Happ we can work with.

The July edition is my favorite, though.

Happ has 28 plate appearances so far this month. He’s slashing .417/.500/.875, with a 17.9 K% & 14.3 BB%. His ISO is at .458. The massive three-run shot off his bat onto Eutaw St. on Tuesday was essentially the death knell against a very good Baltimore Orioles team. For a Cubs team that hasn’t been able to put teams away virtually all season, the timing was impeccable. Overall, it’s a hilarious stretch that is (obviously) in no way sustainable. But the seeds from which these shoots have emerged were planted in June. 

Happ’s has toned down the whiff in his game since May. He cut it slightly in June, and even more so through the first week-plus of July. He’s getting the ball elevated, with a ground-ball rate that has decreased steadily since he started the year off at nearly 50% in April. No full-blown Happ analysis is the goal here. It's just to point out that there are a lot of important developments that have taken shape in building up to this offensive explosion.

The ultimate aim here is to give some insight into managing my own perception of Happ. I discussed earlier in the year my struggle to grasp his level of actual quality. I think I’m finally arriving at real conclusions.

Those conclusions read as follows: Ian Happ is a high-quality baseball player, who is prone to stretches of offensive ineptitude in which he retreats into too disciplined an approach and gets caught in-between, resulting in many groundballs and poor batted-ball luck. During those stretches, he’ll provide occasional power and enough on-base presence via the walk to compensate just enough. In between those stretches, he’ll light up the stat sheet through mixing line-drive contact and home run power. The former components make him frustrating. The latter makes it all worth it.

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