Would It Be Smart to Trade Nico Hoerner This Trade Deadline?

[Jacob Zanolla]

The Cubs' second baseman is a fan favorite, and many of the team's hopes for this despoiled season were pinned on him. In a limited set of players who could draw trade returns to help them rebuild quickly, he stands out as the easiest to move. Does that mean it would actually make sense to do so?

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It’s officially July, the Cubs are plummeting, and rumors are everywhere. It sure seems like the Cubs will be sellers, although this next week should confirm or reverse that. One name that I wasn’t particularly ready to show up in rumors was Nico Hoerner, but it seems that there are talks of him being moved. Hoerner was a Gold Glover last year, and has continued to play impressive defense this season. However, the offense just hasn’t been what we expected. He has picked it up lately, which is good. Before the Phillies series, Hoerner had a seven-game hitting streak, with a few multi-hit games thrown in there. My hope to begin the season was that, if he lowered his average a little, his slugging would increase. This hasn’t been the case, but I do trust that better things are to come during the second half of the season.

Sadly, the Cubs are an absolute mess. Sure, they just won a series against the Angels, but that isn’t saying much. They’ve been one of the worst teams in baseball since the start of May, and they now sit in last place in the NL Central. The National League is quite mediocre this year, so a comeback into the Wild Card spots isn’t impossible. However, the odds are pretty slim.

There are a few players that are best fit to be moved this deadline: Cody Bellinger, Jameson Taillon, and Hoerner. Hoerner is under contract through the 2026 season, which could help boost the return he would get. He's my favorite player on the Cubs, so I would hate to see him moved. The hope among many fans was that he would be a Cub for life, or at least for one more extension before leaving. Hoerner isn't guaranteed to get moved, but is there a deal out there that will make too much sense to pass up?

The Cubs have a lot of good prospects, and Jed Hoyer has made it clear that he believes in them. Two of the names coming up the pipeline are James Triantos and Matt Shaw. They’re both in the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects list, and they've each been selected to the MLB Futures Game in Texas this weekend. Until they are ready, Michael Busch is also an option to play second base, along with Luis Vázquez. Vázquez has mainly played shortstop in Iowa, so I doubt that is as likely, but he could certainly handle the spot. Seeing Shaw or Triantos up later this year wouldn't surprise me if Hoerner is moved, but Busch does seem like a solid candidate to hold down the fort until they're ready. Alternatively, moving Hoerner could provide a chance to re-evaluate Christopher Morel at that position.

Hoerner's strikeout numbers are still fantastic, with that outcome accounting for just 11.6% of his plate appearances. However, he's not hitting the ball hard at all. His expected slugging, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are all in the 10th percentile or lower, league-wide. His hard-hit rate has dropped 4.6 percentage points since last season, which is drastic and could explain some of the rough stats compared to 2023.

Overall, it does seem that Hoerner is a solid piece who could get moved when the deadline hits in a few weeks. The Cubs have a few strong prospects coming up who can take his spot; it's not clear they will be competing next year; and another team could use some strong up-the-middle defense and a decent contact hitter down the stretch. Jon Morosi mentioned the Mariners as a team looking into Hoerner, so they're a team I'm keeping my eye on. Personally, as my second-favorite team is the Mariners, this would be perfect for me, and I wouldn't be too angry. However, it will still hurt to see such a fan favorite be moved, if that's what happens.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]