Are the Cubs Even In a Position to Sell At the Deadline?

[Jacob Zanolla]

The 2024 Chicago Cubs certainly haven't earned an infusion of talent, at the expense of their future. They're no deadline buyers. Can they be deadline sellers, in any serious sense?

Image courtesy of © John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

The Cubs continue to plummet down the standings page of the NL Central, with each game feeling like a worse loss than the last. After Monday’s game, they were 37-42, the same record as last year at this time. In 2023, they were able to turn it around, and missed the playoffs by one game. At first, it appeared as if they would sell at the deadline, but a sudden push in the middle of July changed things up, with the Cubs suddenly being buyers. They didn’t really do much, although acquiring Jeimer Candelario was one of the biggest offensive moves made by any team at the deadline.

However, at this time last year, the Cubs were on the upswing. The 2024 squad started off strong, but has since shown its many weaknesses. Whether it’s blowing saves, leaving runners on base all game, or all of the above, this team is an absolute mess. It had seemed like the Cubs could buy at the deadline, making a playoff push before truly competing next season.

Jed Hoyer is in a difficult position, because this team isn’t really in a good spot to sell. Not only are they supposed to be competing, but they have a great farm system. Buying would be perfect because of those prospects, who give Hoyer a lot of capital with which to acquire talent. Right now, the team has many holes to fill, so I can’t really justify buying. Hoyer has had multiple chances to trade prospects for better talent, but hasn’t really done anything. The two big trades of late were giving up DJ Herz for Candelario, and losing Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte. The Cubs still have a top farm system, which does speak to the depth within these minor-league affiliates.

Hoyer seems persistent in waiting to see what they become, praying that they all become quality major-league players. At some point, he has to realize that selling some of the prospects now will get him current talent, eliminating the risk of keeping those uncertain young names in your system. Instead, he’s “prospect-hugging,” and it is clearly not working. Does Hoyer sell what he can? Buy, even though the chances of competing are not great? Does he do nothing, and let the team continue to drown in the pools of incompetence?

A popular topic among Cubs fans is the job security of Jed Hoyer, and whether or not he should be in the hot seat. His contract doesn’t expire until after the 2025 season, but that doesn’t mean he has to be with the Cubs for that time. While I think this deadline will be very telling for the future of this organization, I still can’t wrap my head around how I will be happy come August. The Cubs do have some names that could be traded, most likely for more prospects. If the Cubs do get more prospects, what will they do with them? The logical thing to do is trade them for major-league talent this offseason, but I honestly don’t think Hoyer will do that. He is very patient, which at times works out for the team. Other times, he misses out on opportunities because he doesn’t want to overpay in any way, shape, or form. We saw this during the last winter, when Hoyer waited until January to make his first move. I won’t discuss the fact that the team didn’t sign Bryce Harper, as I blame Tom Ricketts for being dumb enough to not pull the trigger and sign one of the greatest players of our generation.

Something I will mention is his contract, and how insane that was at the time. The market is changing. So are the values of players' contracts. In 2019, Bryce Harper signed a 13-year deal with the Phillies for $330 Million. His AAV (Average Annual Value) is $25.38 Million. Dansby Swanson signed a 7-year deal worth $177 Million before the 2023 season, with an AAV of $25.29 Million. I know there is a difference in length, but there is no difference in AAV. Harper is easily the better player, which shows that contract values continue to go up. What seems like an overpay now will most likely be a solid contract in the future, if you bet on the right stars. I saw this as Dansby is not producing offensively, but sometimes risks have to be taken in order to win. 

When looking at the Cubs roster, there aren’t many pieces that can easily move at this deadline. One possible option is Nico Hoerner, although that would upset many fans. Hoerner hasn’t produced at his normal rate this season, with all of his offensive numbers being down. Cody Bellinger is another name that could be moved, but his contract situation will make it interesting and thorny. Mike Tauchman’s injury means he most likely won’t be dealt, or that the return will be way less than it could have been. A few relievers could be moved, but none of them have been good enough to warrant any good package. Matt Trueblood wrote the other day about trading Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki, which I would very much be a fan of. The Cubs have a lot of outfield depth in the minors, so getting something back while freeing up some payroll would be smart. As with Bellinger, though, the contract terms to which Hoyer agreed will now make the work of moving on more difficult.

Hoyer doesn’t have many options to sell, which means that this deadline will be very interesting. He could buy in a panic to save his job, although I’m afraid that he isn’t on the hot seat just yet. Should he be? Probably, as I’m sure many Cubs fans agree. However, I’m afraid Cubs fans are just going to have to wait this out until next season--at the earliest. 

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