Stormy Present Spells Uncertain Future for Seiya Suzuki in Right Field

[RandallPnkFloyd]

It's a sporadic problem. It doesn't crop up often, and there's no predicting when it will. Because Seiya Suzuki's defense is having such a huge negative impact, though, it might be a problem on which the team needs to act decisively.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

For myriad reasons, Saturday night was a messy affair between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds. But the one play that sticks out most in my mind is the drop that Seiya Suzuki committed on a should-have-been-routine out in the second inning.

The Reds had the bases loaded with two outs. Justin Steele looked to have worked his way out of it on a lazy flyball from Luke Maile, on which Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong converged to put the inning to bed--except that Suzuki took charge and called for the ball, only to drop it. Like…dropped it.

The Reds scored three on that play, and added one more tally in the inning. All four went down as unearned in the box score for Steele.

While Suzuki went on to redeem himself with a game-tying grand slam, it’s not the first time we’ve seen this specific issue. And while you’d also like to afford him some grace given the conditions in which the teams were playing, it’s that lack of it being an isolated occurrence that has me wondering about his future in right field.

There was the one last year in Atlanta. With two outs in the eighth inning of a game the Cubs led 6-5, Suzuki’s drop of a Sean Murphy fly ball directly led to a 7-6 loss. There was another in 2022 against the Dodgers, in addition to the small handful of balls lost in the sun during his time as a Cub.

Errors (and misplays, like the one above, not officially labeled that way) are obviously going to happen. And it stands to reason that outfielders might be more impacted by weather – rain or problematic shine – than infielders, given the angle at which they need to field baseballs. Anecdotally (or perhaps in the purest sense of confirmation bias), it just seems like Suzuki’s occur at the most egregious times. A close game or a time at which the Cubs are scuffling in a broad sense and can’t afford another mistake. Or a combination of both, as we saw on Saturday.

This wasn't even the first time this year that Suzuki has victimized Steele in a key spot.

The larger issue is that, while the most outlandish of mistakes obviously stand out, those are mere standouts in a troubling display of defense that Suzuki has demonstrated since coming over from Japan.

In 2022, Suzuki stood 46th in Fielding Run Value, out of 68 right fielders (-3). Last year, he was 32nd out of 60 (-2). This year, he’s 24th out of 29 (-3) and in the 13th percentile of defense overall. In each of ’22 and ’24, he’s fallen on the negative side of both the range and the arm under the FRV banner. He’s also at an aggregate Defensive Runs Saved of -3 across the three seasons. 

Weirdly, coming in on fly balls to his right have been his biggest issue. He had a -1 OAA on such flies in 2022, a -3 last year, and is at -1 again this year. One imagines that having Crow-Armstrong to his right on (nearly) a full-time basis moving forward could help to mitigate that--even if it didn’t on Saturday.

But the roster context certainly does make way for the possibility of Suzuki DHing in a more frequent capacity. Crow-Armstrong is here now, likely on a permanent basis. That’s going to push Cody Bellinger over to right sometimes. While the Cubs could (and will) play Bellinger at first base, Michael Busch needs his plate appearances, too. Craig Counsell loves Mike Tauchman, and at a certain point, he's out of places to play other than right field. David Bote’s return to the bigs does complicate this situation further, especially if Counsell wishes to have Christopher Morel DH more often. That's to say nothing of the outfield talent in the upper minors, if the organization ever wishes to deploy it.

Regardless of the roster dynamics, it’s a strange fall for a player who had gained a great deal of respect for his glove, specifically, while still in Japan. That makes it even more difficult to pinpoint exactly what’s going wrong. But with Crow-Armstrong establishing himself as an everyday player and the Cubs’ bloat in that section of the lineup, it’s at least a realistic thought to question Suzuki’s long-term future on the outfield grass.

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