Why Hasn't Seiya Suzuki Taken A Step Forward?

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This was supposed to be the year for Seiya Suzuki. 

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Seiya Suzuki's first two seasons were good. Maybe even above average. His second half of 2023 (149 wRC+, .254 ISO) was supposed to indicate another level to be reached. The front office appeared confident enough in such a breakout that they neglected to add much of anything on offense this past winter. That’s likely an oversimplification (and fails to acknowledge the other bats that were supposed to “take steps forward”) but does speak to the new level that was supposed to be reached in 2024. 

Suppose there’s any accuracy in that statement, though. In that case, it’s likely led to a fair bit of disappointment on the part of Jed Hoyer & Co. Because this season, to date, has been anything but the emergent campaign we had anticipated coming in. Seiya’s probably never been worse. 

The slash includes a .252 average & .316 on-base. The K% is 24.8 & the walk rate sits at only 6.8. ISO’s at .165. His wRC+ is at 109, while the OPS+ is at 107. Now, those numbers could obviously be much worse. There are regulars in the very same lineup that lend credence to that statement. But while there are certainly other depths to explore, each of those figures represents the worst we’ve seen from Suzuki in a Cubs uniform. 

The easy explanation for Suzuki’s woes lies in the approach. His Swing% is at the highest it’s been (41.6). He’s been much more aggressive on pitches outside the strike zone than last year, with an O-Swing% growing almost three percent (26.1). He’s whiffing much more as a result (10.6 percent). This is while pitchers are coming into the zone quite a bit less than they did last year. The contact rate has plummeted (74.5 after an 80.8 mark last year). Suzuki saw 4.19 & 4.18 pitches per plate appearance in his first two seasons. His P/PA thus far in 2024 is at 3.94. 

Suzuki has especially struggled with off-speed stuff. Despite being the pitch he sees the least, Suzuki is swinging at exactly half the off-speed pitches he sees and whiffing at 46.7 percent of them. He’s chasing them at a 32.4 percent clip. All of this just reads as someone who is at a comfort level of exactly zero at the plate right now rather than anything mechanical. 

There's just an aggressiveness here that reads, instead, as impatience. He doesn’t look comfortable. It looks like he wants the plate appearance over in an expedited fashion. Anecdotally, there have been a handful of times since his return from the IL when Suzuki steps to the plate. I take my eyes off the screen, and the three-hole hitter walks up. 

Which, unfortunately, isn’t something that we can necessarily quantify. Nor do we know the impact of his oblique injury on his current performance. Logic absolutely would indicate that any presence of discomfort is wrought by the worst type of injury a hitter can try to come back from during the season. But we’re outsiders here. 

Even more unfortunate, though, is that whatever discomfort Seiya Suzuki may be experiencing – physical or otherwise – is that it’s manifesting itself as a serious hurdle for the Chicago Cubs’ lineup at large. A team that made their bones early on the merit of a collective approach has lost all sense of it. As someone who consistently hits near the top of the lineup (he has hit second all year), there will be an onus on Seiya to rediscover some sense of discipline in hopes that it trickles down the lineup. 

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