Cubs-Specific Insights from New Bat-Tracking Statcast Data

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Thanks to the tech whizzes inside MLB's official stat site, we have access to a whole new box of analytical toys this week. Let's get familiar with them, and hone in on the Cubs.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Over the weekend, Statcast brought us to a new frontier in the advancement of knowledge about baseball via data: bat tracking. Therein, we’re getting insights on bat speed (measured in MPH), “fast” swing rates, squared-up contact, and swing length. There are some nuances to this; “Blasts” & “Swords” are included as part of the picture, on either end of the spectrum. And while we still have a ways to go in examining this over a longer period of time within the 2024 context, there are at least a few places where insights are already coming into focus. 

For starters, Mike Petriello did a comprehensive write-up on the new tools here. Perhaps what is most important for our everyday purposes lies in the general breakdown provided in that piece. 

As far as bat speed goes: 

80+ mph swing speed:

• .321 BA / .665 SLG / .419 wOBA

• 52% hard-hit rate / +2 run value per 100

70-79 mph swing speed:

• .274 BA / .477 SLG / .322 wOBA

• 46% hard-hit rate / -1.5 run value per 100

0-69 mph bat speed

• .202 BA / .254 SLG / .205 wOBA

• 29% hard-hit rate / -4 run value per 100

Regarding squared-up contact: 

Squared-up:

• .372 BA / .659 SLG / .439 wOBA

• 59% hard-hit rate / +11 run value per 100

Not squared-up:

• .127 BA / .144 SLG / .125 wOBA

• 1% hard-hit rate / -6 run value per 100

And as for swing lengths: 

Shorter-than-average swings:

• .258 BA / .359 SLG / .268 wOBA / 19% whiff rate

Longer-than-average swings

• .235 BA / .422 SLG / .282 wOBA / 30% whiff rate

What’s nice about this new information is that it isn’t particularly difficult to understand. Harder swings lead to better results. Squaring up the baseball leads to better results. Shorter swings mean more contact, but less power. Blasts and Swords within the data are relatively self-explanatory. Blasts happen when a hitter achieves high swing speed and squared-up contact. Swords are (sort of) the opposite: awkward, incomplete, or extremely slow swings. Obviously, there is an extensive amount of variation within hitters' mechanics, but this at least gives us some usable insight into the quality of various swings around the game.

I’m not going to pretend to be an expert here. I have imposter syndrome in discussing well-established analytical tools to begin with. But there is plenty to glean from the first run of this information as it relates to the Chicago Cubs, even if it isn’t all especially surprising.

Here are where all of our North Side friends sit in terms of swing speed & squared-up contact: 

Unsurprisingly, you’ve got Christopher Morel all the way out there by himself. In fact, Morel’s average bat speed is tied for the fifth-highest (76.7 MPH), while his fast swing rate sits fifth (71.0%). Given his propensity for whiffs, it makes sense that he isn’t higher up the squared-up side of things. But he ranks 29th overall in blasts (32), with one of the longer swing paths in baseball (his 8-foot swing length ranks 11th). Nothing surprising there. We know Morel has a long, aggressive swing. Seeing it reflected in numbers, though, is pretty neat. 

Somewhat adjacent to Morel in the discussion is Cody Bellinger. With his famously long swing, I’m somewhat surprised his swing length actually comes in a touch lower than his infield counterpart (7.8 feet). It is, however, one of the 25 longest swings in baseball. Equally surprising is that his long stroke isn’t necessarily a detriment to his game, as he’s still squaring up on 29.5 percent of swings--even though his 70.3 MPH swing speed is actually below league average.

Nico Hoerner is another interesting quantity among Cubs hitters. He’s on the slower end of bat speed (69.2 MPH), but is doing an excellent job of making squared-up contact. In fact, his 36.4 percent of swings in which he’s squaring up the ball ranks ninth in MLB, among qualified hitters. And he’s doing that without a shorter swing, as his 7.3-foot swing length is middle-tier. More than anything, it’s just a nice way to see Hoerner’s elite contact ability.

Representing the antithesis of… most of baseball, is Nick Madrigal. He has one of the slowest swings in baseball (65.8 MPH) and one of the shortest (6.4 ft.). But he’s actually managed to use the latter in squaring up a fairly healthy share of his swings (33.8). What he hasn’t done is parlay that into anything but soft groundball contact (an issue for another day). 

Some other quick observations: 

• Mike Tauchman leads the Cubs in swords, with six. That’s interesting, given how deliberate his approach seems most of the time. I do suppose, though, that working deep counts makes you somewhat susceptible to a bad decision late in the at-bat. His ability to foul the ball off and extend at-bats might be related to the tendency to look bad now and then. 

• Dansby Swanson has one of the Cubs’ longer swings (7.5 ft). In my head, I’ve always thought of Swanson as someone with a short, inside swing. I think we have a lot of learning ahead in terms of what swing length is really telling us, though.

• Michael Busch is only squaring up 21.9 percent of his swings. It’s not necessarily surprising, but does speak to the whiff that Busch still needs to work out of his game (as impressive as he’s been).

Again, there’s a lot of depth and nuance still to be explored within this new information. But as much as we might want to rely solely on the eye test to give us some insights about hitters’ mechanics, this is a new step in doing so in a much more tangible fashion. 

View full article