Amid Bullpen Chaos, Is It Time To Declare Mark Leiter Jr The Closer?

[matto1233]

After Friday afternoon’s loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, I thought this season’s iteration of the Chicago Cubs could only seem to lose incredibly frustratingly. Sure enough, heading into Sunday afternoon’s contest, the Cubs had lost 14 games. Half those losses were games in which the Cubs either lost via a walk-off, a blown save, or had the lead in the eighth inning or later.

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Frankly, I am starved for a normal 7-3 loss in which the Cubs went down early; I could simply chalk it up as a loss early on and then enjoy a game without a constantly elevated heart rate. 

Talk to a fan of any professional baseball team, and they’ll likely think their team’s bullpen is bad. It’s doubly frustrating to see your favorite team be so close to winning a game only to have it snatched away after a poor performance from one pitcher. If you’re a good enough relief pitcher, you almost exclusively pitch in high-leverage situations, and you’re going to blow some saves. Pitching is really hard! Unfortunately, we’re all inclined to recall those losses more than most. I specifically remember arguing with someone who thought that Pedro Strop was bad, and he had one of the better five-year runs for a relief pitcher in recent Cubs memory. 

To be clear, this is not a defense of the bullpen, which has, in fact, been bad. According to FanGraphs, they have a 4.67 ERA as a unit, which is 22nd in baseball. That is far too high for a team with playoff aspirations, and with a 4.24 FIP that ranks 22nd, there doesn’t seem to be positive regression coming. However, I don’t think this is all on them: the bullpen has had the most high-leverage plate appearances in baseball. That is on the offense. Everything will be high leverage when the offense is only putting a few runs on the board. There’s no room for error. The impending return of both Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger will hopefully help that situation. 

Justin Steele will also return shortly, pushing Ben Brown into the bullpen. I have very high expectations for his performance there with the two-pitch mix that he possesses. So help is on the way. But with all that said, let’s look at the one guy who has been reliable every day so far this season and who I would even go so far as to say is the Cubs’ unsung hero through the first month of the season: Mark Leiter Jr. 

Leiter is a nice reminder that evaluating bullpen arms is really, really hard. Any team could have signed him after the Cubs designated him for assignment in January of 2023, yet nobody did, and all he has done since is lead the Cubs in FanGraphs WAR out of the bullpen. Could you imagine the panic if he did this for another team while the Cubs’ bullpen struggled this badly?

Alas, he is still a Cub, and we can all breathe a sigh of relief. Leiter had a career year last season when he was used heavily against left-handed bats, where he could best deploy his splitter. Lefties posted a .254 wOBA against him in 2023, per FanGraphs. His inability to get righties out prevented him from being used more liberally. 

Not so far this year. After allowing a .373 wOBA against right-handed hitters last year, Leiter is allowing a .295 wOBA against them this season. His strikeout rate against them has almost doubled, from 21.8 percent last year to 39.1 percent this season. That increase has done a lot of the heavy lifting on his overall strikeout rate for the season since lefties are striking out just 18.6 percent of the time, down from 31.9 percent last year. 

But I am not worried about his ability to get lefties out. The splitter works, and lefties have not recorded a single hit against it this season. What is different about his approach to righties? For one, Leiter throws a sweeper now! After attacking righties last year with his full mix of a four-seam fastball, curveball, cutter, sinker, and, of course, the splitter, Leiter has cut out the four-seamer and replaced it with the sweeper that he has used exclusively against righties. 

Early returns aren’t, actually, super great, at least regarding how hitters are doing against the sweeper. Hitters have a .538 wOBA against it, but it’s still such a small sample size that we should give it much more time before we judge the pitch's effectiveness. His sinker has performed significantly better against righties: after allowing a .490 wOBA on sinkers to righties last year, Leiter is allowing just a .319 wOBA this year. 

Has the sweeper's presence allowed the sinker to play up a bit more against righties? Leiter likes to pound hitters inside with the sinker, and a pitch that will break away from a right-hander like a sweeper usually tunnels well with a pitch that will break in on his hands. Combine that with the splitter, which is just as effective against righties as lefties, and the Cubs might have a legitimate bullpen arm on their hands here to be deployed whenever they’d like. 

With Hector Neris walking as many guys as he is striking out and walking a very thin tightrope every time he is called upon to close a game, I have to wonder if the Cubs make Leiter their closer before it is too late. He is probably best deployed against lefties, and unfortunately, the Cubs don’t have a decent lefty in the bullpen otherwise. But with the addition of his sweeper, he has performed almost as well against righties than lefties this season, and I fear that it is inevitable for Neris to blow a frustrating save soon. 

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[Eli RK]

Palencia should be the closer! A closer just can't throw 91 MPH, no other closer in the league does. Time for the Cubs to join modern baseball and understand that velocity and swing and miss does in fact matter. Plus, Leiter is too valuable with men on base and getting timely ground balls to be stuck in the 9th inning. 

[UMFan83]

Yeah I like using Leiter as a high leverage situation guy rather than someone who pitches the 9th exclusively.  At the end of the day, the starters aren't going 8 innings a game so just about every game is going to require multiple relievers and the vast majority of them are simply not getting the job done so I don't think it really changes much if he's the closer.  I guess the only argument you could make is that saving him for the 9th eliminates wasted appearances where Leiter pitches, does his job, and then someone else blows the game.  As the closer, the game will already be blown before he comes in and thus less unnecessary wear and tear.  It's very sad to have to think with that mindset, but that's where we're at right now.

[Guest234]

Singin' In the Rain!