Article: How the Cubs' Less-Heralded Starting Pitchers Shut Down Their Top Rivals

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The Chicago Cubs' rotation didn't line up the way they might have preferred for this weekend's first showdown with the team with whom they're tussling for early control of the NL Central. It didn't matter.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs pitching staff has had a rather cumbersome past couple of weeks. Already a team with a slim margin for error, injuries have conspired to remove that margin altogether. Without Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki, it's an uphill battle on the offensive end. With multiple regulars seemingly entering a slump at once, things became more difficult. They've scored three or fewer runs seven times over the past two weeks, putting more pressure on a still-depleted pitching unit.

While good news is on the horizon regarding the health of their two offensive catalysts, the bullpen has also had its share of woes. Whether it’s the immense struggles of Adbert Alzolay or the tightrope walking of Héctor Neris, late-game situations haven’t been super kind to the relief corps (or to our collective nerves). This has left a heavy onus on the starters to walk the proverbial tightrope.

The cruel irony of that is that the rotation isn’t without its own issues. Justin Steele has been out since Opening Day, though he returns Monday. Kyle Hendricks struggled massively before winding up on the IL. In the interim, the Cubs have had to piece together a rotation with, essentially, a rebound candidate and some high-upside--but very inexperienced--arms in their place.

Boy, did they deliver this weekend.

The Cubs took two of three from Milwaukee in a series that felt as crucial as one in May can. The starters who made that possible? Hayden Wesneski, Jameson Taillon, and Javier Assad. And just like we all expected, the trio didn’t allow a run across any of their starts.

Milwaukee had an opportunity to be a particularly infuriating opponent for this Cubs starting group. The Cubs’ starting arms are middle-tier in K% (22.4) and have given up the fifth-most contact in the league (79.7 percent). Where they thrive is in forcing soft contact. The group’s 26.2 HardHit% against trails only the New York Yankees. They’re able to do that while inducing the second-most swings, behind only Seattle (50.1%). 

In hosting the Brewers, they went up against a club that doesn’t make a ton of contact (75.7 percent), but also swings the bat as rarely as anyone in baseball (43.0 percent). Given that, it was a matchup that appeared to favor the Cubs at least slightly, as their typical approach would force the Brewers into swinging at a higher frequency. Yet, the Crew’s .315 collective BABIP had the chance to be an obnoxious component in the weekend’s activities, from the Cubs’ perspective.

Thankfully, it turns out that when you maintain the type of approach we saw from the Cubs’ starting trio over the weekend, the BABIP monster works for you, rather than against you. 

The Brewers turned in a BABIP of just .214 against Wesneski on Friday. He scattered three hits and only walked two. He didn’t do anything overpowering or special: the most notable aspect of his 6 1/3 innings was going fastball- and sweeper-heavy. He limited contact more than his starting counterparts (albeit narrowly, at 78.4%), with that pitch combo working to keep Milwaukee off-balance throughout the start. He just had it working, even if the bullpen didn’t.

Wesneski’s start stands in a bit of contrast to the Cubs’ other two starters over the weekend. Taillon threw six innings, only walked two, and struck out seven. Assad threw six of his own, walking three, and striking out four. Their approaches to the Milwaukee lineup, though, varied widely.

In his start, the former recorded a Zone% of 47.5. He got the Brewers to swing 46.5 percent of the time, including 42.3% on pitches outside of the strike zone. That’s out of character and outside their comfort zone, given that the Brewers have swung at only 24.0 percent of pitches that weren’t inside the zone. While he surrendered a fair bit of contact (about 84%), only 7.1 percent of Milwaukee’s contact was hard. On top of that, they put the ball on the ground at an even 50% clip.

Similarly, Assad worked in the zone with decent regularity (45.7%). He also gave up pretty consistent contact (89.5%), but had the Brewers driving the baseball into the ground. His GB% was an absurd 70.6 percent, with only 22.2% hard contact. Wesneski was able to generate more swing-and-miss, but the latter two found their own ways to minimize damage.

The zone distribution also reflects what made each of the three so successful this weekend. Both Wesneski & Taillon worked fastball up, breaking stuff down. Assad worked more horizontally, keeping pitches down, regardless of type.

Even if it feels mildly disappointing to miss out on a sweep that was well within reach, the starting pitching was beyond encouraging this weekend. Assad continued one of the more dominant stretches of any pitcher in the bigs. Taillon continued to bounce back from his abomination of a 2023 season. And Wesneski showed he has the chops to hang as a starter.

None of these things are surprising, of course. We know the upside and/or history of each of the three. But it’s about the opponent. The Brewers have made a living off BABIP thus far. Their pitching has struggled, but their young group of bats put balls in play and generate runs they have no business generating. This weekend, the Cubs demonstrated that their starting group has the appropriate approach to mitigating that: get them to swing the bats and let the defense do the work.

Considering they could remain the team’s top competition for a division title, the outcomes on the bump should bode well for their 10 remaining games this year.

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