Article: The Cubs Rotation Is Very Good, Except The Third Time Through The Order, When It Is Very Bad

[Matt Ostrowski]

Despite a recent stretch where Chicago Cubs’ starting pitchers have worked into the sixth inning in four straight games, their starting rotation still ranks towards the bottom of baseball in overall innings thrown.

Image courtesy of © David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into Saturday afternoon’s game, Cubs’ starters had thrown 125⅔ innings, which is 26th in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Their 2,075 total pitches thrown is ninth.

It’s been a consistent theme and concern for the Cubs early this season. The starting pitchers aren’t working deep into games, which will fatigue a bullpen that already looks like it’s running on fumes. 

From a results standpoint, the starting rotation has actually been quite good. At 3.64, their FIP is fifth in baseball. They’ve contributed 2.2 WAR as a group, which is eighth. This is despite the fact that they have gotten just one abbreviated start from Justin Steele and that they have gotten five starts from Kyle Hendricks, who has been the fourth-worst pitcher in baseball by FanGraphs WAR (fun fact: Adbert Alzolay is last on that list!). He also has the worst FIP of any pitcher who has thrown at least 20 innings. 

The more I have watched this team play, the more I feel like Craig Counsell is leaving quite a bit of meat on the bone here. Take Friday night as an example. In the middle of a stretch of 16 games in 16 days, the Cubs’ manager pulled Shota Imanaga at 88 pitches in the seventh inning of a six-run game. Sure, there was one runner on base, and maybe Counsell liked the upcoming matchups better with the right-handed Keegan Thompson in the game. On the other hand, you had a six-run lead. That seems like a decent opportunity to push one of your best pitchers to cover a few more outs.

It turns out Counsell might know exactly what he is doing. Per FanGraphs, Cubs’ starters have faced 83 hitters the third or fourth time through the order, which is last in baseball. They’ve also allowed a .537 wOBA the third or fourth time through the order, which is the worst in baseball. The next closest team, the White Sox, is allowing a .448 wOBA, so it isn’t really particularly close. Remember that .320 is generally considered an average wOBA. 

It’s totally normal for pitchers to get a little bit worse each time through the batting order. The logic is that the more looks a hitter gets at a pitcher, the better he will start to see his pitches. However, the split that the Cubs are seeing here is incredibly out of the ordinary:

	MLB	Cubs
wOBA allowed first time	.315	.224
wOBA allowed second time	.311	.296
wOBA allowed third time	.332	.537
wOBA allowed fourth time	.330	N/A

Is this a weird bit of small sample size theater or a worrying trend? I’d tend to say the former. Last season, Javier Assad gave up a .226 wOBA the third or fourth time through the order. This year, he’s at .612. Eighty-three batters faced for an entire team is not a huge sample size, and this stuff can take a while to average out.

To be fair, this might not even be the reason for Counsell’s consistently quick pulls. It’s a long season, and elbow injuries are popping up everywhere. Perhaps the Cubs are being strict about pitch counts. Maybe they think keeping the pitch counts low in the rotation can keep that group fresh for 162 games. At the least, they should have the arms to rotate in and out of the bullpen to keep them fresh. 

On the flip side, sample size aside, this is worth monitoring. We are about 1/6th of the way into the season, and given how bad this has been, I’d have to think it is something of a factor in Craig Counsell’s decision-making by now, even if only a little bit. I also think we’re getting close to the time when those numbers will start to average out, and maybe Counsell will start to give his starters a longer leash at that point. So pay close attention next time the Cubs have a starter coming up on the third time through the order with a low pitch count. How do they fare? Does Craig Counsell pull them at the first sign of trouble? The Cubs might have a third time through the order issue. 

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