Article: One Month In, Let's Catch Up With The Cubs' Defense

[RandallPnkFloyd]

As a person who overreacts to everything, it sometimes becomes difficult to watch the Chicago Cubs play defense in a measured fashion. A failed pick at first by Michael Busch or the odd mistake from Dansby Swanson and I’m ready to sprint to conclusions.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

It’s an interesting paradox in which to reside for someone so consumed by defense and recognizing the sample it requires to genuinely analyze as a result. 

But as we prepare to hit the end of April and guys have settled into spots accordingly, it now seems like a point at which to take a temperature check. What the numbers say might not have as much value at this early stage, but it’s at least worth exploring in comparison to last year. This is in addition to where certain players are performing in the larger context of Major League Baseball. 

The most obvious place to start – and probably, subconsciously, the basis for this article – is on the infield corners. After all, these were the only positions remotely in question throughout much of the winter. Even after the acquisition of Michael Busch for first and the decision to run with Christopher Morel at third, long-term stability was far from a given. And yet, the Cubs may have fallen into such luck at not one of those spots but each of them. 

The Cubs had seven players appear at first base last year, with Patrick Wisdom’s 77 innings representing the fewest among the group. They combined to rank 21^st in the league in the very comprehensive Fielding Run Value (-4), 20^th in Outs Above Average (-5), and 12^th in Defensive Runs Saved (1). In that sense, Michael Busch has, thus far, represented an upgrade. He has a FRV of 0 and an OAA of 1. DRS is the only metric that doesn’t love him, at -3 to this point. Of course, metrics tend to collude against first base anyway, so there’s likely always going to be one naysayer among the trio. 

While Busch has had the occasional issue with a pick or a low throw, the overall results have been sound. Sometimes, they’re even more so. Like this one against the Dodgers. Or this one against Houston. A middle infield featuring Swanson & Nico Hoerner, combined with the rapid improvement of Morel, tends to make life pretty easy on a first baseman from the jump. Despite lacking a defensive home, the fact that he’s been as solid as he has speaks to a solid trajectory moving forward. 

On the other side, Morel came in with much more scrutiny. The Cubs forewent the opportunity to sign Matt Chapman, instead opting to place Morel there, despite the third base picture not looking unlike the one on the other side. The team had five players appear at the hot corner (four if we want to exclude Edwin Ríos’ eight innings), of which only Nick Madrigal emerged of good quality in the eyes of the metrics. Our favorite smaller-than-your-average-baseball-player posted an FRV of 8, an OAA of 10, and a DRS of 8. Not bad for his first full-time run at the spot, like, ever. 

Of course, offensive profiles matter to some extent, and Madrigal’s didn’t work as a full-time third sacker, which is why it’s been so welcome a development to see Morel’s early improvement there. Overall, FRV has him at -1. OAA has him at -2. DRS is -1. So, slightly below average to this point. Given some of the mistakes we saw in the spring and the first week of the season, those numbers actually appear…fine? Swaths of fans were ready to pull the plug after just a few games. The arm has played. The glove just needs to follow. Only then will Morel get a full nine innings there. But he’s well on his way. 

If there’s a concern to be expressed over the defense to date, it’s not on the corners. It’s certainly not on the middle infield, where Swanson & Hoerner continue to live among the league’s best metrics-wise. The outfield, however, is leaving something to be desired. 

The Cubs’ group of outfielders sits 26^th in FRV (-3), 23^rd in OAA (-3), and 13^th in DRS (1). Ian Happ & Cody Bellinger have been below average by the metrics. Bellinger was already having a tough inning before a misread led to his current rib injury, as he appeared to lose a ball in the lights. Interestingly, that sort of represents the biggest concern for this group: light sources. While there isn’t a metric to place it, the Cubs have (anecdotally) appeared to lose more balls in the sun or stadium lights than any other team in baseball. More worrisome is that it largely comes from their three starters across the grass: Happ, Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki. 

I suppose that’s a positive aspect of Pete Crow-Armstrong’s return to the top club. The bat may not be there yet, but you know you’re getting premium defense. Given injuries, with so many moving parts in the outfield, he should bring up-the-middle stability to the defensive picture out there. 

Here's a quick peek at the catching (something I’ll likely expand on later this week). I love what we’re getting from Miguel Amaya. He ranks fifth among backstops with at least 50 innings in Baseball Prospectus’ Catcher Defensive Adjustment (1.0) and eighth in Called Strikes Above Average (0.006). Yan Gomes ranks 52^nd in CDA (-1.4) and CSAA (-0.011). It’s still early, but there may be a gap establishing between the two of them. 

Ultimately, we’re at the end of April. And I’m throwing out a bunch of metrics that need a significant sample to mean anything at all while also adjusting to a world of FRV against OAA & DRS. But it’s something to monitor, especially given the team’s continued roster construction and need for high-end defense. 

In short: middle infield good, corners improving, catchers just-okay-to-probably-quite-good, and outfield can’t field baseballs with light involved. Still a long way to go in the defensive game.

View full article