Article: Previewing the 2024 Chicago Cubs' Probable Opening Day Lineup

[Jake Russell]

With Opening Day tomorrow, I figured it would be a perfect time to look at the Cubs' potential lineup, and how they match up with the Rangers’ Opening Day starter, Nathan Eovaldi (who was announced last week).

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Visiting the defending World Series champions is a tough way to open the season, but the Cubs hope to ruin the Rangers' party. Here's the group likely to try to do it.

Catcher: Yan Gomes
Though this probably wouldn’t be the route I myself would go, I think the Cubs will give the start to the veteran backstop over sophomore Miguel Amaya. As much as I like Gomes, he is entering his age-36 season, coming off a 2023 campaign wherein he played pretty poorly defensively, and pretty poorly offensively (though he was insanely clutch–he had a 198 wRC+ in high-leverage situations).

Oddly enough, Gomes actually led the Cubs in wOBA against pitches 95 miles per hour or harder last season, at .373; the league had a wOBA of just .315 against pitches thrown 95 and harder. Eovaldi averages 95.1 MPH on his four-seam fastball, though he also has kind of a dead-zone fastball shape. Gomes may be in an overall solid matchup with Eovaldi.

First Base: Michael Busch
The newly acquired Busch scuffled in his small sample at the big-league level last year, but in the minors, he tore the cover off the baseball. Busch ran very low whiff rates. Busch was in the 94th percentile in xwOBACon (expected weighted on-base average on contact) in Triple-A last year, while running a Chase rate of just 22.2% and an in-zone contact rate in the 90th percentile. He is, in a way, a full package offensively–good plate discipline, little whiff, plus power, and a plus hit tool. Busch and Edouard Julien (who had an exceptional year in the majors for the Twins) were the only two players to be 85th percentile or better in all of those measures plus Sweet Spot% in Triple-A last year.

Though access to minor-league data is limited, I like how Busch matches up with Eovaldi. He had an 1.150 OPS against righties last season in his minor-league time, although Eovaldi’s splitter is a pretty good neutralizer against lefties and probably his best pitch. Busch crushes fastballs, though, and Eovaldi’s is a bit of a dead-zone pitch (meaning it has similar vertical and horizontal movement to the league averages). If Busch can maintain the strong ability to make contact he displayed in the minors, watch out for a big season from him.

Second Base: Nico Hoerner
Hoerner ended last season as the second-most valuable player on the Cubs, per FanGraphs WAR, at 4.7. Largely, he adds value defensively and on the bases. He had the second-highest Baserunning Runs (BsR) in baseball last season (second to only rookie phenom Corbin Carroll) and had 13 Outs Above Average. Hoerner had just a 102 wRC+, but a win is a win–and nearly 5 wins is nothing to complain about.

Hoerner versus Eovaldi is an interesting matchup. Hoerner has typically run pretty high chase rates with low whiff rates, and Eovaldi has typically run pretty high chase rates with middle-of-the-pack whiff rates. Eovaldi typically works lower in the zone, and Hoerner doesn’t really whiff, so I don’t love this matchup for Hoerner like I do guys who pitch up in the zone more often, but it’s still a plus having him in the lineup.

Third Base: Christopher Morel
Morel burst onto the scene in 2022, but suffered some ups and downs before ultimately ending up with a 108 wRC+ (respectable). In 2023, Morel raked in Triple-A en route to a mid-May call-up, and in four of the five months he was up with the parent club last year, he hit for a 120 wRC+ or better! The one bad month? August, when he had a 47 wRC+.

The biggest problems with Morel are the whiffs, but he combines solid plate discipline with incredible power. A matchup against a pitcher who doesn’t get an overwhelming number of whiffs and pitches down in the zone may be a good one for a guy like Morel (though Morel did struggle with fastballs last year). The biggest concern about Morel this year is his defense, so hopefully an offseason of reps and the Nick Madrigal program will make him a good fielder there.

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson
Swanson led the Cubs in fWAR in the first year of his $177-million contract, thanks to Platinum Glove-level defense, with solid offense and baserunning. Like Morel, he has some whiff issues, but has very strong plate discipline and solid power. As with Morel, too, I kind of like this matchup. Though Swanson struggles against higher velocity, he also hits pretty well against fastballs low in the zone, but struggles against offspeed pitches (he had a -11 RV versus changeups and splitters last year). I’d look for Eovaldi to attack both Swanson and Morel with splitters.

Left Field: Ian Happ
Counsell says Happ will be the Opening Day leadoff hitter. The patient hitter and longest-tenured Cubs position player walked nearly 100 times last season, and had a .360 OBP en route to a 3.5 WAR season. Now, there is some injury concern for Happ, and I could see him working out of the DH spot with Tauchman slotting in as the left fielder, but Counsell told the media Opening Day is “not in jeopardy,” and Happ was in left on Monday. (The lineup then was also probably the exact one they'll use Thursday.)

Happ is a pretty complete player. Last season, he set a career best in strikeout rate, a career best in xwOBA (outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season), and had a very solid 118 wRC+. He didn’t have a below-average month offensively last season, and profiles very well as a leadoff hitter, especially against a guy like Eovaldi who has historically gotten a lot of chases.

Center Field: Cody Bellinger
Bellinger certainly has some questions to answer regarding whether or not his play from last season is sustainable. While Bellinger had a 134 wRC+ last season, he had career-worst marks in Barrel%, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. However, he did have his hardest maximum exit velocity since 2020, so maybe there’s more power left in the tank.

I think the biggest question for 2024 Bellinger is whether or not he can improve his plate discipline. In 2023, Bellinger had a 33rd-percentile Chase% (according to Baseball Savant), with just a 51st-percentile zone swing rate. Before he got injured, Bellinger had pretty good plate discipline, so I hope he can work to return to that. The great thing about Bellinger is that he does pull fly balls at a pretty high rate, so he may be able to overperform his raw power once again. Bellinger should be, at the worst, a solid contributor in the lineup with a good hit tool, and the potential for so much more than that is there.

Right Field: Seiya Suzuki
Suzuki has been on an absolute heater this Spring Training, hitting .459/.512/1.081 with a 306 (!!!) wRC+, following up what was an incredible second half last season. It seemed like Suzuki started to take a more aggressive approach. From the Mets series in New York to open August to the end of the season, Suzuki had a 185 wRC+ and swung just 43 percent of the time, with a 66% zone swing rate and a minuscule 24.1 Chase%. Prior to that, he was sitting at just a 96 wRC+, with a zone swing% nearly 5.5% lower and a Chase rate at 23.2%. It seemed like a concerted effort to refine Suzuki’s approach by Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly, and it paid dividends. Suzuki struggled a bit against four-seam fastballs last season, but I truly trust him in any matchup, and I think there is a better chance than not that he ends up the Cubs' best hitter this season.

Designated Hitter: Mike Tauchman
Finally, there's Tauchman, who had quite the resurgence with the Cubs last season. Tauchman had career highs in walk rate, xwOBA, and xwOBACON, and his success last year was rivaled only by his 2019 campaign with the Yankees. The thing I like a lot about Tauchman is that he seems to have a pretty high floor. Assuming he can keep the whiffs as low as he did last year (his lowest mark since, you guessed it, 2019), Tauchman has a very nice combination of plate discipline and hit tool, despite some limited power. I’m more than glad to have a guy like Tauchman facing a command pitcher like Eovaldi on Opening Day, especially as the ninth hitter. That’s depth.

Predicted Lineup

1. Ian Happ

2. Seiya Suzuki

3. Cody Bellinger

4. Christopher Morel

5. Dansby Swanson

6. Nico Hoerner

7. Michael Busch

8. Yan Gomes

9. Mike Tauchman

This is the lineup the Cubs used on Monday against the Cardinals, and it seems like that’s a very likely outcome for the Opening Day order. I really like how it’s constructed, other than Gomes getting precedence over Amaya, as I mentioned earlier. There is good depth here, and other than Gomes (and maybe Hoerner), I think every hitter here is an above-average hitter, while Hoerner provides tons of defensive and baserunning value. They also match up pretty well with a guy like Eovaldi–almost the entire lineup displays plus plate discipline, and though Eovaldi is a good pitcher, I think the Cubs will match up well against his fastball.

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Does Eovaldi strike you as a good first test of the Cubs lineup? Would you set the order any differently Thursday night? Join the conversation below.

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