Article: The Top 20 Chicago Cubs Player Assets of 2024: Part 4 (1-5)

[Seth Stohs]

Which players in the Chicago Cubs organization are most valuable to the goal of winning championships? Over the past couple of weeks, we have been counting down the Top 20 player assets. This should become your list, so feel free to add your thoughts, agree or disagree, and make your suggestions. 

Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri, USA Today (photos of Steele, Swanson), Ron Chenoy, USA Today (Crow-Armstrong)

The Chicago Cubs are a big-market team with an annual budget payroll approaching $200 million. Their response to this question is likely different than it might be for a team with a budget half that size. The goal is the same. Who provides more value to a team looking to win a championship (or championships)?

For a more thorough explanation of these rankings and how they are developed, check out Part 1’s introduction post. The shortened version: Which players in the Cubs organization are most crucial to developing a championship-caliber team? To rank the Cubs players and prospects, we consider age, contract status, years of control, ceiling/potential, and more.

To recap, here is the first installment of this year's top 20 player assets lists:
20. Ben Brown, RHP
19. Alexander Canario, OF
18. Kyle Hendricks, RHP
17. Owen Caissie, OF
16. Kevin Alcantara, OF
15. Seiya Suzuki, OF
14. Adbert Alzolay, RH RP
13. Michael Busch, IF
12. Javier Assad, RHP
11. Jordan Wicks, LHP
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP 
9. Ian Happ, OF
8. Nico Hoerner, 2B 
7. Christopher Morel, UT
6. Shota Imanaga, LHP

---

5. SS Matt Shaw (22) 

Last summer, the Cubs used the 13th overall pick in the draft to select Matt Shaw out of the University of Maryland, where he had an awe-inspiring three-year career. As a freshman in 2021, he hit .332 (.952) with 16 doubles and seven homers. The following season, he hit .290 (.986) with 11 doubles and 22 home runs. In 62 games as a junior, he hit .341 (.1.142) with 20 doubles and 24 home runs. Those are pretty impressive numbers, especially coming out of the shortstop position. 

After signing, Shaw played in three games in Arizona. Then, he played in 20 games at High-A Wisconsin, where he hit .393 (1.082) with four doubles, three triples, and four home runs. He finished the season with 15 games at Double-A and hit .292 (.852) with four doubles and three homers. With Tennessee, he made eight starts at second base and three at shortstop and third base. With Dansby Swanson around, Shaw’s path to the big leagues likely starts at third base, and that could happen as soon as midseason this year.  

4. RHP Cade Horton (22) 
Undrafted out of high school, Cade Horton stayed in his hometown of Norman, Oklahoma, and went to the University of Oklahoma on a baseball scholarship. He also was a walk-on to the football team. Before his freshman season, he tore his UCL and needed Tommy John surgery. As a redshirt freshman, he was a two-way player. He primarily played third base but also made four starts at shortstop and hit .235 (.648) with six doubles, two triples, and one home run. He pitched out of the Sooners bullpen early in the season but ended the year making 11 starts. Overall, he went 5-2 with a 4.86 ERA. In 53 2/3 innings, he walked 15 and struck out 64 batters. 

In July, the Cubs were comfortable with Horton’s medicals and surprised a lot of draft experts by selecting him with the seventh overall pick in the 2022 draft. He didn’t pitch that summer, and the Cubs were quite cautious with him, especially early in the 2023 season. He started with four starts and just 14 1/3 innings at Low-A Myrtle Beach. As you’d expect, he dominated. He gave up just two runs, walked four, and struck out 21 batters. He moved up to South Bend and threw 47 innings in 11 starts. He walked 12 and struck out 65 batters. Horton ended the season with six starts and 27 innings in Double-A Tennessee. He had a 1.33 ERA and 31 strikeouts to just 11 walks. So you don’t have to do the math; he combined for 117 strikeouts to just 27 walks in 88 1/3 innings. 

With less than 100 innings in 2023, seeing how the Cubs use him in 2024 will be very interesting. They should continue to be cautious because that is how valuable he can be to the organization's future. Horton has “Ace” written all over him in time. The big thing will be building up his innings count. 

3. SS Dansby Swanson (29)
Swanson came to the Cubs last offseason on a seven-year deal worth $177 million. While he saw his batting average drop to .244, the former #1 overall pick was worth 4.7 fWAR for the Cubs in 2023. He was an All-Star. He won his second Gold Glove. After leading the National League in games played the three previous seasons, Swanson played 147 in his first year with the Cubs. He had 25 doubles and 22 home runs.  

Dansby Swanson has been a big-time player, a key cog in Atlanta’s success. He is known to be an outstanding leader. He has a World Series ring. There are a lot of intangibles to Swanson’s game. However, with the contract, the Cubs and their fans will want him to have an OPS+ of over 100, which he has only done once in a full-length season over his eight years in MLB. He had a 115 OPS+ over 38 games in his debut season in 2016. His OPS+ was 111 in the 60-game Covid season of 2020. In 2022, he posted a 114 OPS+. His OPS+ in 2023 and 2021 was 99, basically league average. 

Swanson had six years and $157 million remaining on his contract. While the Cubs have an annual payroll that can account for a bad contract, it would be great if Swanson could provide above-league-average offensive production for the next three or four years. His defense is fantastic and will need to remain so to validate the contract. 

2. OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (21)  
Pete Crow-Armstrong was the Mets top pick in 2020, 19th overall out of the little, big-league, starting pitcher factory Harvard-Westlake in Los Angeles. (At one time, Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty were all in the high school’s rotation.) In July 2021, the Cubs sent Javier Baez and Trevor Williams to the Mets in return for the speedy center fielder. 

 

In 2022, he split the season between Low-A Myrtle Beach and High-A South Bend. In 101 games, he hit .312/.376/.520 (.896) with 20 doubles, 10 triples, and 16 home runs. He also had 32 stolen bases. In 2023, he started the season with 73 games at Double-A Tennessee before getting 34 games in Triple-A Iowa. In 107 total games, he hit .283/.365/.511 (.876) with 26 doubles, seven triples, 20 home runs, and 37 stolen bases. He was called up to the Cubs in early September. He went 0-for-14 at the plate but showed he can be a game-changer in center field.  

There is no reason to worry about 14 at-bats. Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to hit in time. Will he make the Cubs' Opening Day roster or get a couple more months? If the decision is made on defense, he will be in the big leagues from Day 1. And then, hopefully, in the Cubs lineup for the next decade or more.

1. LHP Justin Steele (28) 
The Cubs used their fifth-round pick in the 2014 draft to select left-handed pitcher Justin Steele out of George County HS in Lucedale, Mississippi. He moved up one level each year from 2014-2017. He fought injuries in 2018 and then reached Triple-A in 2019. He didn’t pitch in 2020. However, in 2021, he made the Cubs Opening Day roster and worked out of the bullpen. He missed the end of May and most of June. He was optioned to Iowa and made four relief appearances before they moved him into the starting rotation. He built up to five innings and then was called back up to the Cubs in early August. He had some ups and downs but completed five innings in six of nine starts. 

The southpaw had a solid first full season in the Cubs rotation in 2022. He made 24 starts and went 4-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. In 119 innings, he had 50 walks to go with 126 strikeouts. He had his breakout season in 2023. He made 30 starts and went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. In 173 1/3 innings, he walked 36 and struck out 176 batters. Even with the additional 54 innings, he still had more than a strikeout per inning. More important, his BB/9 rate dropped from 3.8 to 1.9. 

That’s a significant statistic for Steele because he doesn’t throw hard. His fastball in 2023 averaged just shy of 92 mph. However, his slider bumped back over 83 mph, and he used it more often than in 2023. 

After making around the league minimum the past three seasons, Steele will make $4 million in 2024. It is his first of what could be four arbitration-eligible seasons. If he pitches well, the Cubs will happily pay him his arbitration numbers and even look long-term. His value in trade is probably at its peak right now. I also think that he might be the key to the success of the Cubs over the next few seasons. If he pitches like he did in 2023, he can lead the rotation for years to come. 

---

That’s all for today’s installment of five players and the complete list of 20 Cubs players. Would you rearrange any of them? Do any of them jump out to you? 

Top 20 Cubs Player Assets (these links take you to the search results at North Side Baseball for these players.) 
20. Ben Brown, RHP
19. Alexander Canario, OF
18. Kyle Hendricks, RHP
17. Owen Caissie, OF
16. Kevin Alcantara, OF
15. Seiya Suzuki, OF
14. Adbert Alzolay, RH RP
13. Michael Busch, IF
12. Javier Assad, RHP
11. Jordan Wicks, LHP
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP 
9. Ian Happ, OF
8. Nico Hoerner, 2B 
7. Christopher Morel, UT
6. Shota Imanaga, LHP
5. Matt Shaw, IF
4. Cade Horton , RHP
3. Dansby Swanson, SS
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF
1.  Justin Steele, LHP 

View full article

[Guest234]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. What is PCA's batting average in the major leagues? 

He is probably as good an outfielder as Billy Hamilton.

[Seth Stohs]

5 hours ago, Guest234 said:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. What is PCA's batting average in the major leagues? 

He is probably as good an outfielder as Billy Hamilton.

Pfft... if we're gonna go by career MLB batting average, there's no contest... Billy Hamilton is 239 points higher. No comparison!