Article: Projecting the Cubs' 2024 Opening Day Roster, v. 1.0

[Matthew Trueblood]

With their offseason starting so slowly, the Cubs are far from a finished product for 2024. If the season were to begin today, though, how would they line up along the chalk lines? Let's take a look, to pinpoint what still needs to change.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

For the purposes of this exercise, we'll focus solely on internal options. This isn't a prediction that the team won't sign any free agents or make any trades; it's just a glimpse at what the team will look like without them.

Starting Lineup

1. Mike Tauchman, CF
2. Nico Hoerner, 2B
3. Ian Happ, LF
4. Seiya Suzuki, RF
5. Dansby Swanson, SS
6. Matt Mervis, 1B
7. Christopher Morel, DH
8. Yan Gomes, C
9. Nick Madrigal, 3B

The glaring omission here, of course, is Pete Crow-Armstrong. A contract extension could solidify Crow-Armstrong's place with the team on Opening Day, and it's still possible he could win the job without one, but he's not the favorite at this moment. Having only taken 158 plate appearances at Triple A and with some clear work to do offensively, Crow-Armstrong could return to Iowa to open the season and try to sand off the rough edges. To reclaim an extra year of service time, the Cubs would need to wait until roughly the beginning of May to call him up. If he doesn't assert himself in the Cactus League, though, that feels like the short end of the timeline, anyway.

Bench

• Miguel Amaya, C
• Patrick Wisdom, 3B/1B
• Alexander Canario, OF
• Miles Mastrobuoni, IF

This unit, and this specific set of players, is the reason why Craig Counsell was such an important acquisition back in November. David Ross got nothing much out of Amaya, using him far too sparingly and doing a lousy job of developing him at the big-league level. Ditto for Canario. These are guys with ample tactical value, if instilled with confidence and used in the right matchups and situations. Counsell will tap into that.

Starting Rotation

• Justin Steele
• Jameson Taillon
• Kyle Hendricks
• Javier Assad
• Jordan Wicks

Plainly, this can't be the group come Opening Day. So far, this exercise has only underscored that the Cubs' most urgent and pressing need is for a frontline starting pitcher. Steele is unlikely to ever have a season as good as his 2023 again. Taillon figures to be somewhat better than he was last season, and if he's a third starter, you probably have a pretty sturdy rotation. If he's second, though, that's a problem. Hendricks's resurgent season was a delightful thing, but it came with some warning signs that the end is only getting nearer, not further away. Wicks is the only hurler here who provides upside beyond the role into which he's slotted.

Bullpen

• Adbert Alzolay
• Julian Merryweather
• Drew Smyly
• Hayden Wesneski
• Daniel Palencia
• Mark Leiter, Jr.
• Jose Cuas
• Luke Little

The top six names here are all relatively recent converts from starting roles. All eight have meaningful upside, and at least three of them have the chance to be a legitimate relief ace. However, none is a proven one, and none have shown the consistency or the durability to do that over a full season. Nor is the team's relief depth overwhelmingly impressive, unless you consider the likes of Assad or Ben Brown to be part of that equation. The Cubs need reinforcement in this area, too.

By now, it should be pretty clear why the Cubs are 22nd in the current projected 2024 standings at FanGraphs.

The best to worst teams right now using the latest projected 2024 winning percentages from FanGraphs:

Braves
Astros
Dodgers
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays
Phillies
Cardinals
Twins
Orioles
Rangers
Mariners
Marlins
Red Sox
Mets
Diamondbacks
Brewers
Guardians
Padres
Tigers
Giants
Cubs…

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) December 15, 2023

Understandably, fans are growing impatient. There are still a number of avenues available for the Cubs to markedly improve, but there's no question that they need to do so, and that will require a much bolder second half of the offseason.

What do you think of this roster projection? Where did I err, and who should be on the list instead? Join the conversation below.

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[Matt W]

Matt, I think the biggest trap for fans and front office, alike, is buying into the idea that Steele is the 2nd coming of Kersh. He’s probably like a 2.5 on a very competitive team.

in terms of roster construction, we’re starting to hear the annual “this team is cheap” stuff , due to inactivity in FA mkt. What concerns me more is possible prospect hugging. Jed can’t be indiscriminate in shipping these guys off but there , quite frankly, isn’t enough room for many of them , given recent contracts handed out + distinct possibility of another longer-term, positional  FA deal this offseason(Chapman? Bellinger?). There are a number of things remaining to be done but biggest items seems to be a big-boy that makes  Jed a little uneasy. I’m thinking something in Lazardo , Bryce M tier.

[Crusader]

I’d guess at this point Wisdom probably has a leg up on being the starting 1B over Mervis, until Mervis proves otherwise. I like Wisdom, but he should not be in contention for starting at first.

[Guest234]

Why would they begin with Mervis, but not PCA. One is plainly a better defensive and speed player than the other.

 

[squally1313]

23 hours ago, Matt W said:

Matt, I think the biggest trap for fans and front office, alike, is buying into the idea that Steele is the 2nd coming of Kersh. He’s probably like a 2.5 on a very competitive team.

 

Are those the two options? First ballot Hall of Famer or good #3 starter? 

[CubinNY]

Steele is a good pitcher who is going to give you innings and keep you in games most of the time. That is plenty valuable. 

I don't know anyone this side of a strawman who thinks Steele is destined for the HOF. 

[squally1313]

Since the beginning of 2022 Justin Steele has produced the 16th most pitcher fWAR in baseball while throwing less innings than anyone in the top 20. His ERA over that stretch is 3.11 and his FIP is 3.09. He made 30 starts in 2023 and pitched five or more innings in 27 of them.

He fits every definition of an ace pitcher besides, like, if your definition of 'ace' is top 3-5 pitcher in baseball. 

[Billy62]

     Pretty interesting read Matt! Lots of variables that will have to play out before they lace on the spikes, but you acknowledge that in your post. I think the Wisdom/Madrigal saga will continue to play out on which Wisdom we are looking at. If he is zoned in and squaring up the ball, he should be getting the lions share of play at either 3B or DH. Although if he is in the tank hitting about .190 and swinging like a rusty gate, on the bench is where he will be.. That is of course, as long as the Cubs didn't pick up his option to use him as part of a deal for a bigger fish. Lets hope there is some action to improve this team. If we go through the winter standing pat and turn in a team below .500 or even just above, the fans are going to be truly disappointed.