Bruce Miles Chat, 2004-12-20

[Bruce Miles]

is there any truth to the jacque jones rumors that are out there? it seems like he's the last type of player the cubs need (no patience, low obp). he's like corey patterson w/o the potential and the small paycheck.

 

I've been asking the Cubs about Jacque Jones for a month. They've seemed lukewarm the whole time. I'm not a big fan for the same reasons you express. We'll see if things change here in coming days and weeks.

[Bruce Miles]

Now that Benitez, Percival and Kolb are out of the question, do you think Hendry will try and trade for a closer? If so, what are the possible teams he will likely trade with?

 

As of now, he's prepared to stay in-house, but he'll continue to pursue. There aren't a whole lot of viable candidates out there, and teams won't part with those who are easily.

[Bruce Miles]

With the baseball revival that was enjoyed throughout the recent years and the problems between the unions & owners in other sports, are there any worries about a work stoppage in the future?

 

There is always that worry. But I think the union and management overcame a lot of bad history in 2002 when they signed that basic agreement. From what I saw, the players seemed to take control of things from the hired leadership, much as they did recently with the steroid issue.

[Bruce Miles]

Okay, another question...

 

I've read numerous reports around the Internet about highly-touted pitching prospect Bobby Brownlie's drop in velocity this season, supposedly hovering in the high 80s. While he did post some very good numbers and made it through the season (mostly) healthy, that kind of velocity could be cause for concern. In a recent BA chat, Will Lingo addressed a question about Brownlie, saying that most scouts were not impressed with him and that one even felt he was just a bullpen arm at this point.

 

My question is, how does the Cubs front office view Brownlie at this point? Do they think he can make an impact and regain his velocity, or are they expressing some doubt?

 

I don't think they've soured on him by any means. They are concerned about the velocity drop, and that concern is real. But they feel it's way, way too early to give up on him.

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce,

 

Do you know how creative Jim Hendry is willing to get in order to unload Sosa? He showed that he was capable of such things in the Nomar deal, which was supposedly almost completely orchestrated by Jim. Most trade rumors the media has been throwing out there are 2 teams. Is there much of a chance at having another 3 or more teams involved in order to get a favorable deal with Sosa? Thanks again for answering our questions.

 

There's always a chance of a third party getting into the mix, but in the end, I believe Sosa will remain a Cub. If not, I believe it'll be the Mets or Baltimore. The industry first will see how the Randy Johnson trade shakes out and what the Mets do about Delgado.

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce,

 

It has been tossed around recently (here at NSBB) that Hendry is "Retaking control of the team". That is, he is getting rid of Dusty's so called "yes men." For instance, neither Paul Bako or Ramon Martinez will be returning next season. After a sub-par ending to 04, and his apparent refusal to let the Sosa leaving early thing die*, what is the Cubs front offices' view of Baker today. That is, are there any rumblings in the high lands of Cubdom that the front office is losing confidence in Dusty Baker?

 

 

 

*Not trying to take Sosa off the hook, but Dusty isnt 100% innocent, either, in my opinion.

 

As I mentioned before, Bako was a "Jim Hendry guy," and everybody agreed Ramon Martinez had to be replaced. What you saw were some natural "corrections" that I believe occur in any employer-employee relationship. The Cubs have not lost confidence in Dusty Baker.

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce,

 

Who's telling the truth? Steve Stone or Kent Mercker?

 

A little of both and a little of neither. That's how these things go. I wasn't present at any of their "confabs" so I really don't know. See my first statement.

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce, do you have any insight into the relationship between Corey Patterson and Baker?

 

I ask because Moises Alou's inexplicable mental errors on the basepaths last year were met with little response from Baker; yet, when Corey apparently failed to steal a base against the Pirates (I believe), he was obviously dressed down by Baker in the dugout. Later in the game, Corey tied up the game with a homer late and walked into the dugout using the stairs leading down from the middle, not the end where Baker was. Then, in extra innings, Corey again homered to win the game, and Baker walked off the field with Corey and appeared to be chastizing him once more. You may also recall that Corey's initial return to the leadoff spot was met with great success, but after the game described above, he stunk for the rest of the year.

 

Thanks.

 

My guess is that Baker felt he could make an impression on Patterson but that Alou was probably "unreachable" at his age and at that stage of his career. I think there's a tendency _ wrong or right _ for some people to give benefit of the doubt to more experienced workers. In my opinion, Patterson fell of simply because he's not a true leadoff hitter. We'll know more in '05 as we see how Dusty handles things. It's worth watching.

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce, I am glad you stated in your 12/20 article that Hendry could go to the Trib and request a one time bump in the salary for the 2005 season to acquire Beltran if Sosa can't be moved.

 

Personally, I am sick of the Sosa drama and place blame on the organization as much as Sosa. I think the organization acted impetuously when it released the video of Sosa leaving even earlier than he stated and almost used Sosa as a scapegoat for an epic collapse that was thankfully dwarfed by the Yankees a short time later.

 

So, my suggestion is that Hendry go to the Dominican and makes nice with Sosa. Sosa then flies back to Chicago with Hendry, has a press conference with Hendry and Baker, and all three act like men, swallow their pride, and express recognition of their failures and interest in moving on. Heck, I'd even throw in a comment or two about re-signing Sosa after '05. Then, Sosa needs to buy a full page add in the Trib apologizing to fans and doing his hole, "Baseball has been very, very good to me," remake.

 

This would be a win/win for the club. The Cubs would not appear so desperate to move Sosa (thus increasing trade value) and Sosa decreases fan ire from '04 if he remains a Cub.

 

However, as an insider, you may be able to identify problems with this scenerio and/or personalities prohibiting such a resolution. Could this even be possible, or has the situation deteriorated too much? (Please don't use Hendry's, "I expect Sosa to be in right field next year," line." The lack of sincerity makes me sick to my stomach.)

 

You've stated this so well, JC, that I don't think I can add much to it. I see nothing wrong with this scenario. Hendry has to say he anticipates Sosa will be the right fielder because he may be. That said, some sort of accommodation, along the lines of what you stated is necessary. It's been Hendry more so than Baker lately who has said this is possible. Dusty is still acting as if this happened yesterday and the hurt is still fresh. At some point, they all have to move on.

[Bruce Miles]

Ok, heres another one...

 

I am wondering if there is anyone in the cubs organization that Hendry veiws as "untouchable." That is, is there anyone he will refuse to trade under any circumstances. Or is anyone available to trade, given he gets a good deal. If there are any untouchables, who are they? Possibly Ramirez, Patterson, Angel Guzman, Brownlie, Wood, Prior, Zambrano?

 

There are no untouchables, but Prior, Wood, Ramirez and Zambrano come the closest. All the rest could be had in the right deal.

[Bruce Miles]

Renyel Pinto - the organization has sought after the elusive lefty starter like it was the holy grail. What's your read on this guy and ETA to the bigs?

 

Great kid with good stuff. He just needed a year to mature. He looked a little awed in spring training last year. I see him in the bigs at some point in 2005.

[Bruce Miles]

Sergio Mitre - consarn it! This is our pitching version of Dubois. He was alternately very good and very bad when he started, but if you break down the numbers it shows that he got annihilated by lefties. Unsurprisingly, tenacious Mitre went to AAA and seemed to have solved lefties as he came only within a few innings of qualifying for the AAA ERA Title, which he would have won by nearly a full run!

 

Like Dubois, what does Mitre have to prove in AAA and what are his chances of starting as the #5 starter over Rusch? Also, do you know how he solved lefties in AAA so well?

 

Mitre is the type of player I see the Cubs including in some sort of multiplayer trade down the line. He's tough and tenacious as you say, and if he's in Mesa come February, he'll compete for the No. 5 job. I'm told better pitch selection was the reason for his improvement vs. LHH, but I'll try to get a less vague answer.

[Bruce Miles]

Chadd Blasko - after a phonomenal 2003 campaign his 2004 season in AA wasn't very good and he got hurt. What's your take on him? I've heard it bandied about that he's a possible closer candidate in the future, tho his great 2003 performance may have dispelled that notion.

 

Do you have a guy in the minors you see as a possible big league closer?

 

I see Wuertz as a potential (with stress on "potential") closer in the bigs at some point. Blasko is another tough kid, but I haven't heard him mentioned as a closer lately. I will try to follow up in the paper with more info as I get it.

[Bruce Miles]

I was really hoping we'd sign Armando Benitez, who was just all world last year. What's the reasons for Hendry's passing on him?

 

And since closer was a problem, amplified during the stretch run of the last few weeks, what are we going to do there for '05? Hawkins? Dempster?! A trade?

 

Hendry always has been of the opinion that there are very few slam-dunk closers out there. He felt Benitez got too much money for too many years. Right now, Dempster is the front-runner unless Hendry finds gold somewhere else.

[Bruce Miles]

Corey Patterson - I realize his OBP isn't ideal for a leadoff guy, but to me the main problem overall was Corey's underachieving with the batting average. I was pleasantly surprised by his walk total and on-again-off-again willingness to see multiple pitches.

 

The guy was inconsistent, but what are the odds he leads off? I really like his speed there, tho I think he's an ideal #2 hitter. Since we have no leadoff hitter...I just don't want to see Walker leadoff, which would give the Cubs the slowest leadoff hitter in MLB.

 

Cubs leadoff hitter in '05 will be ________?

 

From what I've heard, I don't even think the Cubs know who their leadoff hitter will be in April. Your points on Patterson are valid and well stated. Maybe the experience of having done it, succeeded and slumped, will allow him to do it in '05.

[Bruce Miles]

Maddux's 2006 option is based upon him attaining a high total of innings pitched, which he reached in '04. It seems likely he'll be back for a pretty sizeable salary in '06, unless the Cubs hold him back for a few starts. Heard anything about that, or should we plan on Maddux, who cost us Clement, starting in '06?

 

I don't believe the Cubs will hold Maddux back because of the contract thing. Clement was 9-13. Maddux was 16-11. There's a lot of war left in the old war horse. With or without Maddux, there was no guarantee Clement was coming back for '05.

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce,

 

Do you think that Hendry and Baker are similar in their personalities and baseball philosophy or are there significant differences?

 

If there's something higher than a Type A personality, Jim Hendry is it. He's nonstop nervous energy that would make coffee jittery. Baker is more laid-back as a person. I think they see things similarly as far as baseball philosophy goes.

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce,

 

Are you concerned that the Cubs have created an impossible situation in regards to Sammy Sosa? I'm not sure how trumpeting the fact that he needs to go from all directions helps Hendry get him moved in a reasonable deal. Did the TribCo make a mistake in calling him out in public? Also, where does the thinking come from that the Cubs have to move Sosa to sign Beltran? Wouldn't keeping Sosa's $17 million dollar contract be a better financial deal than taking back a Cliff Floyd plus $13 million?

 

I don't think the situation is impossible. Sosa's behavior and the Cubs' reaction to it aside, he is and was going to be hard to move for a number of baseball and financial reasons. The thinking that the Cubs have to move Sosa to get Beltran comes from simple mathematics. But as I said in early posts, that could change with a bump for 2005 with the payroll dropping in '06 when Sammy is gone. I think all sides probably should have handled things better in October.

[Bruce Miles]

If Washington D.C. is unable to come up with an acceptable proposal to MLB for a new stadium, where do you see the former Expos playing in 2005?

 

They might be stuck in Washington as a lame-duck (great political term) team for one year. It could be they end up in Vegas in '06. My guess is that somehow the Washington thing gets worked out.

[Bruce Miles]

Thanks for stopping by to chat!!!

 

You wrote today that if Beltran is still available after January 8 then Jim Hendry might ask the Tribune company for more money to sign him. Do you think Beltran is his #1 target for the outfield?

 

Yes. Talent like that comes around not very often.

[Bruce Miles]

Bruce,

 

If Wade Miller is non-tendered today, any chance the Cubs approach him as a canidate for closer?

 

Haven't thought about that one, but I'll ask our favorite GM when I talk with him.

[Bruce Miles]

Prior to last year, Carlos Lee was the worst defensive OF in MLB - true or false. If false, who was worse going into '04? Isn't he still a terrible defensive OF and why did the Brewers trade for this $8 mil bum? Couldn't they have done better with that money?

 

What are your expectations for him in Milwaukee?

 

I think he'll hit well for a time in Milwaukee and perhaps lose interest as the team plummets. I didn't see him play much, so I'll take your word about his defense.

[Bruce Miles]

Is Sammy Sosa a nice guy in real life?

 

Sammy Sosa is a very complex individual. He has been very nice to me over the years. He'll even take time to ask about my family.

 

He's extremely proud, extemely sensitive, and as we've seen, these qualities can lead to difficulty at times. Of course, the Cubs did a lot of enabling over the years that led to some of what we've seen dating to the Don Baylor days in 2000.

[Bruce Miles]

What's you're take on the Mulder trade? I think Mulder's a fine pitcher, but it seems like his best stat is his W-L record, which an acutely understanding baseball mind such as yourself surely knows is a terrible way to rate a pitcher. I view it as similar to them aquiring Clement (trading possible head problems for possible hip problems).

 

Last year the Cards got so many good breaks, but they also have a lot of big time ballers who will win games. The Cards are going to be good, any guesses for their win total?

 

As of now, the Cards look like a 90-win team, but that could change. I think they were disappointed that Polanco took arb from the Philies. You've hit the Mulder situation on the head.

[Tim]

Bruce had to check out so that he could keep an appointment with everyone's favorite GM (no, not Billy Beane). On behalf of NSBB, I'd like to pass along our thanks to Bruce for taking two complete hours to answer our questions here. It was a ton of fun and we hope to get a chance to chat again soon!