Week 11: BEARS vs. Baltimore Ravens

[UMFan83]

One underrated thing that annoyed me yesterday.... Khalil Herbert had 1 touch. This is the dude that held the run game together for a few weeks while Montgomery was out. You have your top WR out, so short on weapons. Herbert is probably your 3rd or 4th best weapon yesterday (not including Fields himself).

Thats pretty low on my list considering everything. Considering game situation I think overall Run/pass split was fine and it's not like Montgomery wasn't having success.

 

I get the complaint but I also think the Bears ran way too much early on based on the opponent they are playing. Monty was playing well and we didn't need more running. I believe I also saw Herbert running back kicks as well.

 

I still can't believe we played the worst pass D in the league (by yardage allowed) and Fields threw 7 passes in the first half. Yes there were at least 3 RPO's called (all runs) and yes he got sacked 1-2 more times on drop backs but still way too many called run plays, particularly on 1st down. I think every first down except 1 in the first half was a run.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Just listened to Nagy’s PC and wow he’s a bumbling idiot. His explanation for the timeout before the 2 point conversion was that there was all this celebrating going on plus he had to figure out what to do with the penalty etc.

 

What NFL coach doesn’t know if they are going to go for 2 if they score a late go ahead touchdown? Even if they don’t, who lets celebrating a touchdown and figuring out how to enforce a penalty distract them so much from the next play that they have to call a timeout?

 

Think about how many times you see a team score a late touchdown. When they pan over to the coach for his reaction you almost always see them holding up 1 or 2 fingers. Like 3 seconds after the TD is scored. But it trips up Nagy so much he wastes a valuable TO.

 

Dude is just in way over his head.

 

Ok I found the quote. Look at this jibberish. The more he talks in this answer the dumber he sounds

 

“We’re at a point where you have the celebrations, you have the guys going back and forth,” he said. “And also knowing you’re up those four points where we were. You want to be able to make sure you have everything you need personnel-wise and going for it, etc. There was also the penalty. Do you move it half the distance, make it from the 1? Do you use it on a kickoff? So there was a lot of stuff going on at that point. So that’s why we used it, to be able to make it a six-point game.”

With the penalty and everything I actually think it's slightly more complicated than some are making it out to be, BUT the worse thing you can do is lose the TO. That's gonna swing the odds more than anything. Wasting a TO to get it right is foolish. Rather be slightly wrong with a TO in hand than lose a TO.

 

https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator/

 

Also pfr's win probability can be played with to test different win probabilities at 4, 5, and 6 points.

http://pfref.com/tiny/7jrHB

 

 

help me with this, is this saying that either with the penalty or not, the 2 pt try was the correct decision and he should not have taken the TO. but tried for the 2 pts from the typical spot?

 

I would have probably just kicked the PA and held the TO. Sure, its 5 pt lead as opposed to a 6 pt lead, it still means the other team has to score a TD and if they do, wouldnt they just kick the PA and win by 1 anyway?

[minnesotacubsfan]

One underrated thing that annoyed me yesterday.... Khalil Herbert had 1 touch. This is the dude that held the run game together for a few weeks while Montgomery was out. You have your top WR out, so short on weapons. Herbert is probably your 3rd or 4th best weapon yesterday (not including Fields himself).

 

can Herbert catch? if he can, why not use him out of the backfield to run routes?

[WrigleyField 22]

 

Ok I found the quote. Look at this jibberish. The more he talks in this answer the dumber he sounds

 

With the penalty and everything I actually think it's slightly more complicated than some are making it out to be, BUT the worse thing you can do is lose the TO. That's gonna swing the odds more than anything. Wasting a TO to get it right is foolish. Rather be slightly wrong with a TO in hand than lose a TO.

 

https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator/

 

Also pfr's win probability can be played with to test different win probabilities at 4, 5, and 6 points.

http://pfref.com/tiny/7jrHB

 

 

help me with this, is this saying that either with the penalty or not, the 2 pt try was the correct decision and he should not have taken the TO. but tried for the 2 pts from the typical spot?

 

I would have probably just kicked the PA and held the TO. Sure, its 5 pt lead as opposed to a 6 pt lead, it still means the other team has to score a TD and if they do, wouldnt they just kick the PA and win by 1 anyway?

Yea that decision tool is saying it's better to go from 2. It doesn't have a way to toggle penalty or not, so who knows how odds sort out there, but presumably 2 pt remains the favorite, just depends on the spot.

 

The screenshots I snipped shows what happened to the odds when toggling between 1 timeout remaining (left) to zero (right). It dropped your odds 6-7%, regardless of the 2 v 1 decision. Whereas the difference between 2 and 1 is only about 2% difference. So you're literally better off being wrong and saving the TO rather than using the TO and making the "right" call.

 

The one thing I'll say about the 2 v 1 odds is it appears to pretty consistently use a 93% PAT success rate. Which is definitely low for Baltimore (Tucker is 98.5% career from current PAT spot). So in the "play for a missed PAT and overtime" chances that going up by 6 provides, the successful outcome going from 7% to 1.5% seems significant. But base odds everywhere I look seem to like going for 2. And at either 7% or 1.5% odds you're really splitting winning odds by 1/3 again for just a chance at OT.

 

The pro football reference win probability does show a non significant change in odds between +4 and +5 with 1:40 remaining. So people saying it's not significant are wrong IMO. We saw the downside of the missed 2. In a quick TD scenario you are then down 3 and playing for at best a tie to force OT. That they also didn't have a TO to try and force the tie with a FG... Weeelllllll...

[minnesotacubsfan]

I see. I agree losing the TO was terrible, and as others had stated no having (or sticking to) a predetermination on going for 1 or 2 prior to even scoring the TD was a mistake on Nagy's part, regardless of the penalty. I would have kicked the PA, it would be more likely to make and puts the onus on Baltimore to 1) score a TD and 2) decide for themselves whether or not to kick the PA or 2pt. If they had scored quickly, and gon after the 2 pt, the Bears would JUST need a FG to win, and that scenario with 22 seconds left, while not ideal, is certainly more believably with a TO then w/o the TO

[raw]

One underrated thing that annoyed me yesterday.... Khalil Herbert had 1 touch. This is the dude that held the run game together for a few weeks while Montgomery was out. You have your top WR out, so short on weapons. Herbert is probably your 3rd or 4th best weapon yesterday (not including Fields himself).

Thats pretty low on my list considering everything. Considering game situation I think overall Run/pass split was fine and it's not like Montgomery wasn't having success.

 

I get the complaint but I also think the Bears ran way too much early on based on the opponent they are playing. Monty was playing well and we didn't need more running. I believe I also saw Herbert running back kicks as well.

 

I still can't believe we played the worst pass D in the league (by yardage allowed) and Fields threw 7 passes in the first half. Yes there were at least 3 RPO's called (all runs) and yes he got sacked 1-2 more times on drop backs but still way too many called run plays, particularly on 1st down. I think every first down except 1 in the first half was a run.

 

I don't mean just getting him the ball in the run game. You had 1 1/2 capable WRs, throw the ball to the backs out of the backfield. Do something to get the ball in playmakers hands. Not just yesterday, but in general. Kmet only had 1 touch too. And I didn't/don't mean to make a big deal out of it, but it's another one of those Nagy things that makes him a terrible coach. It's the same way he couldn't figure out how to get Mike Davis the ball when he only had a then mediocre rookie, Montgomery running the ball. It's nitpicky, but just another "guy is over his head" example for me.

[WrigleyField 22]

I see. I agree losing the TO was terrible, and as others had stated no having (or sticking to) a predetermination on going for 1 or 2 prior to even scoring the TD was a mistake on Nagy's part, regardless of the penalty. I would have kicked the PA, it would be more likely to make and puts the onus on Baltimore to 1) score a TD and 2) decide for themselves whether or not to kick the PA or 2pt. If they had scored quickly, and gon after the 2 pt, the Bears would JUST need a FG to win, and that scenario with 22 seconds left, while not ideal, is certainly more believably with a TO then w/o the TO

Well if the Bears kick for one and Balt scores and goes 2, a subsequent FG unfortunately only ties it. But that's where revising odds on personnel comes in. If it was Lamar Jackson, you're prob giving them pretty good odds on a potential go for 2. With Huntley, it'd presumably be a lot lower. So there may be a perfect storm of two bad offenses (without Jackson), but still two leaky/vulnerable secondaries and two good to great kickers that I could at least entertain the 1 instead of 2 argument. Higher quick score odds, really strong PAT kick odds, weak 2 pt odds on both sides, etc.

 

Or just keep the rule application simple. And the simple application is go for 2. You maybe don't have time to Calc a half a dozen different forks on a preset call sheet. Don't burn a TO for it.

Edited November 22, 2021 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

Thats pretty low on my list considering everything. Considering game situation I think overall Run/pass split was fine and it's not like Montgomery wasn't having success.

 

I get the complaint but I also think the Bears ran way too much early on based on the opponent they are playing. Monty was playing well and we didn't need more running. I believe I also saw Herbert running back kicks as well.

 

I still can't believe we played the worst pass D in the league (by yardage allowed) and Fields threw 7 passes in the first half. Yes there were at least 3 RPO's called (all runs) and yes he got sacked 1-2 more times on drop backs but still way too many called run plays, particularly on 1st down. I think every first down except 1 in the first half was a run.

 

I don't mean just getting him the ball in the run game. You had 1 1/2 capable WRs, throw the ball to the backs out of the backfield. Do something to get the ball in playmakers hands. Not just yesterday, but in general.

Oh like throw a RB screen? Sorry, they're still working that into the playbook I think.

[raw]

Another underrated mistake about the whole extra point situation was taking the penalty on the PAT and going from the 1 instead of the 2. The play called was a pass, which would work just as well (or better) than a pass from the 1. Nevermind the fact that the pass itself was horrible and wouldn't have worked anyway. Could have skied the kick and forced a return, with good coverage could have made them start inside the 20.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I see. I agree losing the TO was terrible, and as others had stated no having (or sticking to) a predetermination on going for 1 or 2 prior to even scoring the TD was a mistake on Nagy's part, regardless of the penalty. I would have kicked the PA, it would be more likely to make and puts the onus on Baltimore to 1) score a TD and 2) decide for themselves whether or not to kick the PA or 2pt. If they had scored quickly, and gon after the 2 pt, the Bears would JUST need a FG to win, and that scenario with 22 seconds left, while not ideal, is certainly more believably with a TO then w/o the TO

Well if the Bears kick for one and Balt scores and goes 2, a subsequent FG unfortunately only ties it. But that's where revising odds on personnel comes in. If it was Lamar Jackson, you're prob giving them pretty good odds on a potential go for 2. With Huntley, it'd presumably be a lot lower. So there may be a perfect storm of two bad offenses (without Jackson), but still two leaky/vulnerable secondaries and two good to great kickers that I could at least entertain the 1 instead of 2 argument. Higher quick score odds, really strong PAT kick odds, weak 2 pt odds on both sides, etc.

 

Or just keep the rule application simple. And the simple application is go for 2. You maybe don't have time to Calc a half a dozen different forks on a preset call sheet. Don't burn a TO for it.

 

you're right on the 17-14 score, a FG ties it at the end. But I think its clear his first inclination was to kick the PA, didn't he run the PA group out there before calling the TO? Just keep the plan as is and kick it. And your point of a dozen different forks on the call sheet, I realize Lamar was a late scratch, but Nagy should have had Huntley factored into that equation at that point. The D was battering him all game, you have to bet against him getting the 2 pt even it Vildor looks like Grabby Mcgrabberpants all 2nd half

[WrigleyField 22]

Another underrated mistake about the whole extra point situation was taking the penalty on the PAT and going from the 1 instead of the 2. The play called was a pass, which would work just as well (or better) than a pass from the 1. Nevermind the fact that the pass itself was horrible and wouldn't have worked anyway. Could have skied the kick and forced a return, with good coverage could have made them start inside the 20.

Yep. Or booted it out of the end zone to avoid a possible big return if you wanted to go conservative, even.

 

Really the only amazing thing is they didn't manage to commit a false start out of the timeout and totally negate any attempt to go for 2. Kudos, Bears.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Thats pretty low on my list considering everything. Considering game situation I think overall Run/pass split was fine and it's not like Montgomery wasn't having success.

 

I get the complaint but I also think the Bears ran way too much early on based on the opponent they are playing. Monty was playing well and we didn't need more running. I believe I also saw Herbert running back kicks as well.

 

I still can't believe we played the worst pass D in the league (by yardage allowed) and Fields threw 7 passes in the first half. Yes there were at least 3 RPO's called (all runs) and yes he got sacked 1-2 more times on drop backs but still way too many called run plays, particularly on 1st down. I think every first down except 1 in the first half was a run.

 

I don't mean just getting him the ball in the run game. You had 1 1/2 capable WRs, throw the ball to the backs out of the backfield. Do something to get the ball in playmakers hands. Not just yesterday, but in general. Kmet only had 1 touch too. And I didn't/don't mean to make a big deal out of it, but it's another one of those Nagy things that makes him a terrible coach. It's the same way he couldn't figure out how to get Mike Davis the ball when he only had a then mediocre rookie, Montgomery running the ball. It's nitpicky, but just another "guy is over his head" example for me.

 

 

i honestly thought the whole reason for hiring Nagy was going to be his creative and innovative use of personal, not the constant churn of "not having the right guys on offense to fit the scheme" we've ended up with

[UMFan83]

 

I get the complaint but I also think the Bears ran way too much early on based on the opponent they are playing. Monty was playing well and we didn't need more running. I believe I also saw Herbert running back kicks as well.

 

I still can't believe we played the worst pass D in the league (by yardage allowed) and Fields threw 7 passes in the first half. Yes there were at least 3 RPO's called (all runs) and yes he got sacked 1-2 more times on drop backs but still way too many called run plays, particularly on 1st down. I think every first down except 1 in the first half was a run.

 

I don't mean just getting him the ball in the run game. You had 1 1/2 capable WRs, throw the ball to the backs out of the backfield. Do something to get the ball in playmakers hands. Not just yesterday, but in general.

Oh like throw a RB screen? Sorry, they're still working that into the playbook I think.

 

That comes in Year 5. They aren't ready for that just yet

[WrigleyField 22]

I see. I agree losing the TO was terrible, and as others had stated no having (or sticking to) a predetermination on going for 1 or 2 prior to even scoring the TD was a mistake on Nagy's part, regardless of the penalty. I would have kicked the PA, it would be more likely to make and puts the onus on Baltimore to 1) score a TD and 2) decide for themselves whether or not to kick the PA or 2pt. If they had scored quickly, and gon after the 2 pt, the Bears would JUST need a FG to win, and that scenario with 22 seconds left, while not ideal, is certainly more believably with a TO then w/o the TO

Well if the Bears kick for one and Balt scores and goes 2, a subsequent FG unfortunately only ties it. But that's where revising odds on personnel comes in. If it was Lamar Jackson, you're prob giving them pretty good odds on a potential go for 2. With Huntley, it'd presumably be a lot lower. So there may be a perfect storm of two bad offenses (without Jackson), but still two leaky/vulnerable secondaries and two good to great kickers that I could at least entertain the 1 instead of 2 argument. Higher quick score odds, really strong PAT kick odds, weak 2 pt odds on both sides, etc.

 

Or just keep the rule application simple. And the simple application is go for 2. You maybe don't have time to Calc a half a dozen different forks on a preset call sheet. Don't burn a TO for it.

 

you're right on the 17-14 score, a FG ties it at the end. But I think its clear his first inclination was to kick the PA, didn't he run the PA group out there before calling the TO? Just keep the plan as is and kick it. And your point of a dozen different forks on the call sheet, I realize Lamar was a late scratch, but Nagy should have had Huntley factored into that equation at that point. The D was battering him all game, you have to bet against him getting the 2 pt even it Vildor looks like Grabby Mcgrabberpants all 2nd half

Well the 2 is only partially consequential as you still need time to run a play if/when Balt scores.

 

But all decisions should at least work on concert. For example, I might as well play super agressive and dare them to burn me on a broken coverage or whatever. If they're gonna score, might as well preserve time with a quick score.

The main goal is still stopping any score . Not sure what coverage they ended up doing, and they did leave themselves some time, but they had very little hand in that as Harbaugh actually called TO after the big completion (correctly, I would add). They didn't leave any of their own destiny in possibly controlling a last possession.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Well if the Bears kick for one and Balt scores and goes 2, a subsequent FG unfortunately only ties it. But that's where revising odds on personnel comes in. If it was Lamar Jackson, you're prob giving them pretty good odds on a potential go for 2. With Huntley, it'd presumably be a lot lower. So there may be a perfect storm of two bad offenses (without Jackson), but still two leaky/vulnerable secondaries and two good to great kickers that I could at least entertain the 1 instead of 2 argument. Higher quick score odds, really strong PAT kick odds, weak 2 pt odds on both sides, etc.

 

Or just keep the rule application simple. And the simple application is go for 2. You maybe don't have time to Calc a half a dozen different forks on a preset call sheet. Don't burn a TO for it.

 

you're right on the 17-14 score, a FG ties it at the end. But I think its clear his first inclination was to kick the PA, didn't he run the PA group out there before calling the TO? Just keep the plan as is and kick it. And your point of a dozen different forks on the call sheet, I realize Lamar was a late scratch, but Nagy should have had Huntley factored into that equation at that point. The D was battering him all game, you have to bet against him getting the 2 pt even it Vildor looks like Grabby Mcgrabberpants all 2nd half

Well the 2 is only partially consequential as you still need time to run a play if/when Balt scores.

 

But all decisions should at least work on concert. For example, I might as well play super agressive and dare them to burn me on a broken coverage or whatever. If they're gonna score, might as well preserve time with a quick score.

The main goal is still stopping any score . Not sure what coverage they ended up doing, and they did leave themselves some time, but they had very little hand in that as Harbaugh actually called TO after the big completion (correctly, I would add). They didn't leave any of their own destiny in possibly controlling a last possession.

 

 

oh, i agree

[WrigleyField 22]

Playing around with the odds generators again, and Ben Baldwin's model is quite a bit more bullish on the Ravens wins odds at -5 and -6 compared to the pro football reference model. They're both roughly in agreement on the -4 win probability model. But that difference for 5 and 6 is enough to flip it where pfr model would very slightly favor going for 1.

 

HOWEVER, Ben's model requires inputs specific team/year, so I assume that means it uses in season Dvoa or similar metric to create a relative spread between the teams. Pro football references model just asks for a simple Vegas spread. When you put back the pre-Lamar illness spread @ - 6, its net odds agree more closely with Ben's model and favors going for 2.

 

The question remains, does Nagy even prepare for anything like this?

[WrigleyField 22]

 

oh, i agree

So does Harbaugh!

[UMFan83]

Can't remember if we discussed this but how transparent was Pace's attempt to have Romo speak publicly on his behalf yesterday? Romo was saying stuff about building a talented offensive core despite it's struggles. Seems like Pace is trying to distance himself from Nagy at this point for self-preservation.

[WrigleyField 22]

Can't remember if we discussed this but how transparent was Pace's attempt to have Romo speak publicly on his behalf yesterday? Romo was saying stuff about building a talented offensive core despite it's struggles. Seems like Pace is trying to distance himself from Nagy at this point for self-preservation.

Hitting up the deep network of EIU alum (they did cross over one year too).

 

I saw DaBearsBlog guy speculating that on Twitter too. Not sure I buy it, but maybe!

[WrigleyField 22]

LFG THEN

 

Edit

The source hosts a podcast with ARob.

Edited November 22, 2021 by WrigleyField 22

[UMFan83]

Since the Bears suck and all, the most enjoyable thing to do is hate read Nagy press conferences

 

Near the end of a rambling non-answer about how he planned to steer the Bears out of their five-game losing streak, he pointed out that they were so close to getting out of this rut if not for their late collapses against the Steelers and Ravens.

 

Then, Nagy said, they’d be 5-5 and, “that’s a big difference right now,” given the state of the NFC playoff race.

 

I get that coaches are trained to spin, but "we'd be much better if we didn't lose the 2 games we almost won" is on another level

[Old Style]

Since the Bears suck and all, the most enjoyable thing to do is hate read Nagy press conferences

 

Near the end of a rambling non-answer about how he planned to steer the Bears out of their five-game losing streak, he pointed out that they were so close to getting out of this rut if not for their late collapses against the Steelers and Ravens.

 

Then, Nagy said, they’d be 5-5 and, “that’s a big difference right now,” given the state of the NFC playoff race.

 

I get that coaches are trained to spin, but "we'd be much better if we didn't lose the 2 games we almost won" is on another level

Half the teams in the league lost yesterday.

[UMFan83]

 

 

Damning

[jersey cubs fan]

I think the fake headset malfunction probably pissed off a lot of guys. But the injury report and Mack's decision to go under the knife kind of told us what the vets thought of Nagy. No point in playing in a wasted season for this guy. It's done.

[WrigleyField 22]

Jaylon Johnson for new leader of the defense. Out with the old dudes.