Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-30-18

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (All Times Central):

 

Iowa won 8-1 Box Score

 

Tennessee lost 3-0 Box Score

 

Myrtle Beach had the day off

 

South Bend lost 3-0 Box Score

 

Eugene in progress Box Score

 

AZL Cubs 2 Suspended - Wind

 

DSL Cubs 1 won 9-2 Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 2 won 14-2 Box Score

[Regular Show]

Duncan Robinson really needs to be promoted to AAA. He has nothing left to prove at AA, and the Cubs aren't one of those teams that promotes prospects straight out of AA.

[Cubswin11]

Duncan Robinson really needs to be promoted to AAA. He has nothing left to prove at AA, and the Cubs aren't one of those teams that promotes prospects straight out of AA.

He has some pretty good numbers there, what kind of stuff does he have/throw?

[CubsWin]

Okay, what the horsefeathers?

 

On the evening of July 22nd, Cole Roederer had just completed his 3rd multi-hit effort in 4 games and was batting .404/.509/.702 with 10 walks and just 7 Ks. Andy Weber mercifully had the night off because he had completed his 3rd 0-for-4 night in 6 games the evening before. He was hitting .087/.125/.087 with 1 BB and 13 Ks in just 24 plate appearances.

 

We were all marveling at how hot Roederer was and scratching our heads at why Weber was so bad. We assumed neither performance was sustainable, but we didn't think they were connected in any way. But clearly, someone, perhaps Weber himself, snuck into Roederer's room, stole his mojo and injected it into Weber because since then:

 

Roederer is hitting .080 (2-for-25) with no XBHs, 0 walks and 10 Ks. He lowered his slash line by -.112/-.131/-.216.

 

Weber is hitting .333 (7-for-21) with 2 doubles, 2 HRs, 3 walks and 5 Ks. He raised his slash line by +.118/+.161/+.199.

 

I've heard of taking the good with the bad, but this is ridiculous...

[CubsWin]

Craig Brooks has a pattern of struggling with his control after a promotion. It's likely a mental thing, thinking that you have to be extra precise because the hitters are better at this level so you start nibbling instead of continuing to do what got you there and trusting your stuff.

 

In 2016, his first full season in pro ball, Brooks was still refining his command. He was dominating Low-A with a 1.39 ERA while striking out 30.7% but walking 14.6%. After his promotion, he posted a 8.25 ERA with a 22.1% K-rate and a 16.4% BB-rate. His BAA jumped 100 points from .196 to .296.

 

In 2017, he once again starts off dominating, this time in Myrtle Beach (where had finished the year prior) with a 0.44 ERA, a 39.5% K-rate, 7.9% BB-rate and a .134 BAA. After another mid-season promotion to AA, he had an ERA of 4.46, a 31.7% K-rate and a 15.9% BB-rate. His BAA, while still good, jumped to .201.

 

This year, starting off in AA, he posted a 3.00 ERA, a 35.0% K-rate, a 7.7% BB-rate and a .181 BAA. After his promotion to AAA Iowa, his ERA ballooned to 4.73 (it was 7.36 2 weeks ago) with a K-rate of just 18.6% and a BB-rate of 27.1%. His BAA has actually remained good at .174.

 

Assuming the pattern continues and Brooks starts 2019 dominating AAA (or at least markedly improving), the Cubs would have 4 intriguing, home grown relief arms ready to ride the shuttle or break with the team in Norwood (25), Maples (26), Mekkes (24) and Brooks (26). (Ages are as of opening day 2019). That would be a 1st during the Theo & Jed era and a sign of the Cubs improving pitching depth.

 

The only pitcher from that group not currently on the 40-man roster is Mekkes. Mekkes isn't eligible for the rule 5 draft this winter so they can afford to keep him off the 40-man roster this off season which may be the reason why he hasn't been added already. It will be interesting to see if he is among the September call ups. He's certainly deserving, but that's not always the only consideration.

 

Add in this year's successful acquisitions of Justin Hancock (Szczur trade), Randy Rosario (waivers) and Luke Farrell (waivers), all of whom will have options next season, and the relief depth looks even stronger. If none of them break with the team, that's a nice 7-man AAA bullpen right there (though Farrell would likely be in the rotation), albeit with just one lefty in the group.

Edited July 30, 2018 by CubsWin

[CubsWin]

One possible lefty I should mention is Kyle Ryan. If I've done my research right, he should have at least one option left (maybe more if he isn't added to the 40-man and called up this year). Ryan has been a semi-useful major league reliever for Detroit in the past but has suffered from injuries in the past (he's been placed on the DL once this season but only the 7-day variety). He doesn't blow you away with velocity, but is getting ground balls at an elite rate this year (62.9%) in Iowa and has posted effective numbers as a reliever (2.88 ERA, .237 BAA, 23 Ks, 5 BBs in 25 IP).

 

Rob Zastryzny will have an option left next season, but he's been fairly ineffective. I can see the Cubs moving on from him if they need to open up a spot on the 40-man.

[Hrubes20]

Okay, what the horsefeathers?

 

On the evening of July 22nd, Cole Roederer had just completed his 3rd multi-hit effort in 4 games and was batting .404/.509/.702 with 10 walks and just 7 Ks. Andy Weber mercifully had the night off because he had completed his 3rd 0-for-4 night in 6 games the evening before. He was hitting .087/.125/.087 with 1 BB and 13 Ks in just 24 plate appearances.

 

We were all marveling at how hot Roederer was and scratching our heads at why Weber was so bad. We assumed neither performance was sustainable, but we didn't think they were connected in any way. But clearly, someone, perhaps Weber himself, snuck into Roederer's room, stole his mojo and injected it into Weber because since then:

 

Roederer is hitting .080 (2-for-25) with no XBHs, 0 walks and 10 Ks. He lowered his slash line by -.112/-.131/-.216.

 

Weber is hitting .333 (7-for-21) with 2 doubles, 2 HRs, 3 walks and 5 Ks. He raised his slash line by +.118/+.161/+.199.

 

I've heard of taking the good with the bad, but this is ridiculous...

 

Yeah, I need Babe Roederer to come back. The current version isn't as fun.

[Regular Show]

Duncan Robinson really needs to be promoted to AAA. He has nothing left to prove at AA, and the Cubs aren't one of those teams that promotes prospects straight out of AA.

He has some pretty good numbers there, what kind of stuff does he have/throw?

 

So I believe he has no true "plus" pitch. His fastball is in the low-90's and his best pitch is probably his curveball. Throws strikes and has 4 or 5 pitches. I read he was working on a cutter. Not sure how good or effective it is. I think he learned that pitch from pitching coach (and former MLB pitcher) Brian Lawrence while he was in South Bend.

 

His profile is that of a BOR starter. His stuff isn't great and that's probably why he hasn't been listed on national prospect lists for the Cubs' system. I think he could end up being similar to Luke Farrell as a guy we call up next year as a spot starter. I know that isn't exciting, but there is value in having someone like that.

[Hrubes20]

Duncan Robinson really needs to be promoted to AAA. He has nothing left to prove at AA, and the Cubs aren't one of those teams that promotes prospects straight out of AA.

He has some pretty good numbers there, what kind of stuff does he have/throw?

 

So I believe he has no true "plus" pitch. His fastball is in the low-90's and his best pitch is probably his curveball. Throws strikes and has 4 or 5 pitches. I read he was working on a cutter. Not sure how good or effective it is. I think he learned that pitch from pitching coach (and former MLB pitcher) Brian Lawrence while he was in South Bend.

 

His profile is that of a BOR starter. His stuff isn't great and that's probably why he hasn't been listed on national prospect lists for the Cubs' system. I think he could end up being similar to Luke Farrell as a guy we call up next year as a spot starter. I know that isn't exciting, but there is value in having someone like that.

 

This is my understanding as well. You're probably looking at a Trevor Cahill-esque career if things bounce right. That's pretty fantastic for a 9th round pick who came over 100K underslot as a senior sign.

[CubsWin]

Duncan Robinson really needs to be promoted to AAA. He has nothing left to prove at AA, and the Cubs aren't one of those teams that promotes prospects straight out of AA.

He has some pretty good numbers there, what kind of stuff does he have/throw?

 

So I believe he has no true "plus" pitch. His fastball is in the low-90's and his best pitch is probably his curveball. Throws strikes and has 4 or 5 pitches. I read he was working on a cutter. Not sure how good or effective it is. I think he learned that pitch from pitching coach (and former MLB pitcher) Brian Lawrence while he was in South Bend.

 

His profile is that of a BOR starter. His stuff isn't great and that's probably why he hasn't been listed on national prospect lists for the Cubs' system. I think he could end up being similar to Luke Farrell as a guy we call up next year as a spot starter. I know that isn't exciting, but there is value in having someone like that.

I see Robinson a little differently. It's probably semantics, but I would say Robinson absolute ceiling is that of a BOR instead of his profile, but you may mean the same thing.

 

The numbers show Luke Farrell is a better pitcher right now than Robinson which is to be expected given that he's 2.5 years older. But Farrell has a mid-90s FB plus decent secondaries. AAA hitters are batting .213 against him and he's held major leaguers to a .244 BAA. AA hitters are batting .286 against Robinson not including today's game in which he gave up 7 hits in 5 innings. I just don't see a successful future for a guy getting hit that hard in AA even if he limits his walks. There's little use being in the zone if your stuff/command isn't good enough to not give up hits at such a high rate. I would compare him to Tseng without an above average change up. When Tseng is commanding his fastball and has his change working, he can shut down a team. If he's even a little off with his command, he's very hittable.

 

With the Cubs AAA projected depth of starters next season (Alzolay, Farrell, Clifton and Underwood), I doubt Robinson is getting a call to spot start any time soon.

[CubsWin]

He has some pretty good numbers there, what kind of stuff does he have/throw?

 

So I believe he has no true "plus" pitch. His fastball is in the low-90's and his best pitch is probably his curveball. Throws strikes and has 4 or 5 pitches. I read he was working on a cutter. Not sure how good or effective it is. I think he learned that pitch from pitching coach (and former MLB pitcher) Brian Lawrence while he was in South Bend.

 

His profile is that of a BOR starter. His stuff isn't great and that's probably why he hasn't been listed on national prospect lists for the Cubs' system. I think he could end up being similar to Luke Farrell as a guy we call up next year as a spot starter. I know that isn't exciting, but there is value in having someone like that.

 

This is my understanding as well. You're probably looking at a Trevor Cahill-esque career if things bounce right. That's pretty fantastic for a 9th round pick who came over 100K underslot as a senior sign.

IMO, they'd have to bounce perfectly every day for that to happen. Cahill held AA batters to a .190 AVG at the age of 20 and has held major leaguers to a .254 BAA with much better ground ball numbers. Robinson has allowed a roughly .290 BAA to date in AA at the age of 24. Cahill's stuff prior to injury and after is better than Robinson's. I don't see a comparison.

[CubsWin]

Man, Underwood has been a tease this season. His last 3 starts:

 

15 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, 1.07 WHIP, 1.80 ERA.

 

His previous 4 starts:

 

21.1 IP, 31 H, 15 ER, 11 BB, 16 K, 1.97 WHIP, 6.33 ERA.

 

Consistency is key, and he ain't got it yet.

[CubsWin]

Ha! The AZL Cubs2 game is delayed because of wind. Haboob warning?

[Cubswin11]

Man, Underwood has been a tease this season. His last 3 starts:

 

15 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, 1.07 WHIP, 1.80 ERA.

 

His previous 4 starts:

 

21.1 IP, 31 H, 15 ER, 11 BB, 16 K, 1.97 WHIP, 6.33 ERA.

 

Consistency is key, and he ain't got it yet.

It’s a good thing we gave Farrell that start last week

[Hrubes20]

IMO, they'd have to bounce perfectly every day for that to happen. Cahill held AA batters to a .190 AVG at the age of 20 and has held major leaguers to a .254 BAA with much better ground ball numbers. Robinson has allowed a roughly .290 BAA to date in AA at the age of 24. Cahill's stuff prior to injury and after is better than Robinson's. I don't see a comparison.

 

 

Yeah, I haven't gotten the Robinson hype all year. Cahill was a way better prospect so he's probably not that, and I don't see how potential future optionable AAAA arm sets him apart from most of the arms between A ball and AAA for the Cubs. He's got a nice K:BB this year and keeps himself healthy, but what other skills are there? Is he like way better than a Matt Swarmer.

 

You guys realize I said Trevor Cahill-esque CAREER, right? They aren't anywhere near the same type of pitcher and I would never compare the two in those terms. You could substitute Trevor Cahill for Clayton Richard, Dustin McGowan, Jeff Locke, Chad Gaudin, etc. Basically any pitcher that got some big league innings making some starts at the back end of a rotation and also in middle relief. Cahill is probably on the highest end of that though, as he threw 200 innings for the Dbacks in 2012. That's probably not happening for Robinson.

[CubsWin]

IMO, they'd have to bounce perfectly every day for that to happen. Cahill held AA batters to a .190 AVG at the age of 20 and has held major leaguers to a .254 BAA with much better ground ball numbers. Robinson has allowed a roughly .290 BAA to date in AA at the age of 24. Cahill's stuff prior to injury and after is better than Robinson's. I don't see a comparison.

 

 

Yeah, I haven't gotten the Robinson hype all year. Cahill was a way better prospect so he's probably not that, and I don't see how potential future optionable AAAA arm sets him apart from most of the arms between A ball and AAA for the Cubs. He's got a nice K:BB this year and keeps himself healthy, but what other skills are there? Is he like way better than a Matt Swarmer.

 

You guys realize I said Trevor Cahill-esque CAREER, right? They aren't anywhere near the same type of pitcher and I would never compare the two in those terms. You could substitute Trevor Cahill for Clayton Richard, Dustin McGowan, Jeff Locke, Chad Gaudin, etc. Basically any pitcher that got some big league innings making some starts at the back end of a rotation and also in middle relief. Cahill is probably on the highest end of that though, as he threw 200 innings for the Dbacks in 2012. That's probably not happening for Robinson.

Okay. I see what you meant. I could be wrong, but my thing is I don't even see Robinson making the majors. At least not without some steps forward in avoiding giving up such solid contact.

 

He had a good year last year in a pitcher's league. AA is the proving ground for pitchers and he's getting hit at .289 clip. Maybe it's just a bad month. Maybe the league is catching up to him, but in 6 July starts he's been bad.

 

31.2 IP, 41 H, 17 ER, 3 HR, 8 BB, 20 K, .323 BAA, 1.55 WHIP, 4.83 ERA.

 

For me, he's going to have to figure things out and show some development to not get knocked around in a hitter's league like the PCL next year. That's still possible. Pitchers continue to learn and improve past the age of 24, but time isn't on his side and neither are his current numbers. Without any kind of out pitch that I'm aware of, his margin for error (much like Tseng) is very slim.