2019 Draft Thread

[Named After Maddux]

Fangraphs wrote: 27. Cubs – J.J. Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (TX)

Hoese probably doesn’t get here but they seem to like him. Theo Epstein and a national crosschecker went to see him at the conference tournament.

 

64. Cubs – T.J. Sikkema, LHP, Missouri

 

Tom will be pumped with the latest Fangraphs mock. Very interesting that now it’s been a couple draft pundits connect them with HS arms. Wonder if the new Pitch lab has changed the way they view pitching development structure of HS arms.

[Hrubes20]

I really want Espino the closer we get. Where did Law have him going in that scenario?

 

Espino was at 15, Malone at 21, and Priester at 26

 

Thanks, no Goss or Thompson in the first? They might be my favorite HS arms behind Espino these days...I’m also pretty into Barco as the second round pick if that can happen/makes sense with the nonsense cap and rules

 

It will all come down to medicals with Barco. Have to imagine one of the teams with a huge bonus pool like the Dbacks takes a chance on him.

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I'd rather have RHP Brennan Malone, who goes at the very next pick to Milwaukee at #28 in this mock draft on Fangraphs.

 

Again, I don't want the Cubs to target a pitcher with so many good hitters still available. I'm still a little upset over the pitcher heavy draft class of 2017. There is a chance both 1st round picks (Brendon Little and Alex Lange) end up being busts from that draft...

 

Among the hitters still available I like Nasim Nunez, Matthew Lugo, Braden Shewmake and Gunnar Henderson. I say just take a hitter with the first pick and a pitcher in the 2nd round (if the Cubs are intent on taking some pitching).

 

EDIT: So Kameron Misner is also still available in this mock draft when the Cubs are picking, but I think his profile is too risky for their liking. I doubt they take him now if he's available.

 

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There is talk of the Cubs changing things up and doing things differently, but they understand risk and which demographic pools are the most likely to yield a big league player. Taking a HS pitcher is one of the most dangerous demographics to tap with your 1st round pick (and why I doubt they do it). I understand if the right pitcher falls it's worth taking a shot, but it can blow up very quickly.

 

I also don't trust them when it comes to pitching, but the Cubs claim they've changed their process for evaluating pitchers. We'll see...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1133844373358047233?s=21

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I find it hard to believe Bobby Witt ranks second on that prestigious list. I feel like in my lifetime that both Manny Machado and Justin Upton (everyone assumed Upton was moving off SS though) were rated higher. I'd personally take Carlos Correa over him if they were both in the same draft too.

 

Over at Fangraphs a few months back it seemed like they had C.J. Abrams and Bobby Witt basically tied in their draft rankings.

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[NonProfitCow]

I find it hard to believe Bobby Witt ranks second on that prestigious list. I feel like in my lifetime that both Manny Machado and Justin Upton (everyone assumed Upton was moving off SS though) were rated higher. I'd personally take Carlos Correa over him if they were both in the same draft too.

 

Over at Fangraphs a few months back it seemed like they had C.J. Abrams and Bobby Witt basically tied in their draft rankings.

ARod was in MLB at the same age Witt is going to be drafted.

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Please don't fight... two of my favorite experts (Rany Jazayerli and Jim Callis) covering baseball got into a little tiff on twitter while discussing Bobby Witt Jr. and how his age (19) affects his draft stock. I think age is one issue when covering a draft prospect, but I agree more with Jim Callis. He's still very young relative to most minor leaguers and prospects progress at different rates; it isn't linear progress for most players/prospects. If Bobby Witt Jr. starts at low-A next year I see no problem with his age relative to level.

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From the latest Klaw chat:

 

alex: Callis said that Witt is the best SS draft prospect since ARod. Other folks have said Adley R. is the best prospect since Harper. Which is more offbase? I know you would pick Adley R. #1 (and I hope the Os do the same since going underslot may not work with the D-Backs and all their picks).

Keith Law: I don’t agree with either assessment – too many questions about Witt’s hit tool, definitely would put a few guys between Adley and Harper (Cole comes to mind, Buxton had absolutely elite tools). I have no issue with the O’s taking Vaughn, which I’ve heard a few times they are seriously considering, to go over slot at 42/71. There are enough good, tough-sign high school arms in this draft to make that work – especially since teams have a decent idea who other teams are on (e.g., we keep hearing that Arizona is on certain HS arms like Priester and Goss).

anfromman: It seems that teams put quite a bit of importance on recent performance when evaluating their potential draft picks. Is this not a risk for SSS bias.

Keith Law: Maybe, but the flip side is that players that young tend to change rather significantly even year to year, and underweighting recent performance (and looks) risks missing players who’ve reached a new level of physical or emotional maturity or just learned something new.

Chuck: Mr. Klaw, your thoughts on the Carter Stewart news? Is MLB going to have to wake up and pay prospects what they’re worth?

Keith Law: I don’t think this moves the needle at all.

CD: Based on your mock and Top 100, it appears Oakland would be reaching a bit on Greg Jones. Are you hearing them on any other guys closer to your draft rankings?

Keith Law: Yes – some will be gone, like Will Wilson or Busch, and some would be good value but higher-risk like Goss. They’re on all of them and Logan Davidson too. I just think Jones has a real hit tool question and can’t stay at short.

Will R.: Keith, per your recent mock draft it looks like you have Chicago kid Quinn Preister slipping a bit. His draft stock take a hit lately due to performance?

Keith Law: Not at all. Just that the industry doesn’t love HS RHP.

Jonathan: Cameron Cannon has hit very well in college in this year. Thoughts on where he might go in the draft and is the knock on him his defense?

Keith Law: Specifically that he has no position, but he can hit.

Steve: It feels like Anthony Volpe is destined to be a great player that is drafted too low, doesn’t it?

Keith Law: I do not get that feeling, no. I think he’s a fine prospect who’ll be a great college player, but his tools are limited. You have to absolutely believe he’s going to hit to feel as you do.

Andrew: Difference between Nate Pearson his draft year and Jackson Rutledge this year?

Keith Law: Pearson was (is) a better athlete with a better delivery, I think. Rutledge is fortunate to come out in a way weaker draft and probably benefits from how good Pearson’s been.

Andrew: Is there precedent/comp to J.J. Bleday’s swing? You mentioned he looks like he’s swinging an axe in your top 100 big board which scares me and that was enough for me to put Hunter Bishop ahead of him.

Keith Law: Hunter Pence’s hitch was worse, as I recall it from when he first came up.

Keith Law: He worked out OK.

Joshua: How quick do you think Shea Langeliers could move up and play in the majors? Thanks Keith

Keith Law: I think his defense would be ready quickly, but his bat may be 2-3 years away.

Sam: What’s the highest spot you see Keoni Cavaco going?

Keith Law: I could see him going in the 25-35 range. Maybe the Dodgers or Cubs.

Adam D.: This is a bit of a crazy idea, but given how loaded the 2020 class is, would it make any sense at all for a team picking in the top-10 or so to pick one of the likely un-signable kids safe in the knowledge that not signing them means multiple first round picks next year?

Keith Law: No. People suggest that frequently in drafts that seem down, but 1) next year’s draft could always turn out to be worse than we think 2) a player today is worth a lot more than a player a year from now and 3) the GM/director in question could always lose their job before they get that extra pick.

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Lots of good info in here. Kiley repeats some stuff we've already heard or read for draftniks.

 

It's a good primer for those not as familiar with the 2019 MLB draft class. Highly recommend checking out THE BOARD to see the draft rankings:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&sort=-1,1&pagenum=0&pageitems=10000000000000

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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Lots of good info in here. Kiley repeats some stuff we've already heard or read for draftniks.

 

It's a good primer for those not as familiar with the 2019 MLB draft class. Highly recommend checking out THE BOARD to see the draft rankings:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&sort=-1,1&pagenum=0&pageitems=10000000000000

 

This is a great read. I’m gonna post a few of the most interesting things.

 

Prospect Tiers/Groups

One recurring issue we see with readers’ interpretations of the draft is thinking of a prospect ranked 40th as clearly better than the one ranked 50th. Once you get that low, it’s not always clear who is better, and we also have a less efficient market for information than we do with minor league prospects due to the inherent secrecy of a draft and the privatization of elements of the process (TrackMan data that’s harder to come across, private workouts, etc.). Here are some groups of similar players who we have ranked near each other, but the exact order of which may end up flipping many times over the next few years. We’d suggest you think of them more as part of a group than as having a specific ranking.

 

The Kohl Franklin, Nelson Velázquez types:

 

Six-Figure High Schoolers

 

One area where area scouts make the biggest impact is with the $200-500K high school player. In order for teams to pick up players like this, the area scout will have typically had to identify a lesser known player, built a relationship with him and his advisor in order to properly assess signability, and also have brought their crosschecker in to see that player, sometimes in a way that is strategically timed so other teams don’t know how much they like that player. This year there seem to be more players like this than usual. Information regarding this tier of player is the most sensitive, so we won’t share the names of players who we think fit, but pay attention to bonus amounts of signed late round high schoolers in the weeks to come.

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The kid does have some amazing tools, but that still seems way too high to me.

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Players like Lindor and Baez moved to Florida for high school to improve their options, but the rise of private baseball high school academies, like the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy and High School, where Correa played, and the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, which Lugo attended, are increasingly providing opportunities for potential draftees who want to stay home. Puerto Rican teens now have the option to try out for those schools along with other programs at the International Baseball Academy, Leadership Christian Academy, Christian Military Academy and El Shaddai Christian Academy to increase their chances of getting drafted or earning a college scholarship. Other options include the National Baseball Academy, Escuela Especializada en Baseball Manuel Cruz Maceira, Pro Baseball Academy and B-You Academy.

 

The academies play against each other in league games during the week, which allows MLB scouts to see the players and return stateside to watch college prospects play on the weekends.

 

Lugo’s school was defeated by Leadership Christian Academy in the finals in April.

 

“Before I was drafted, the mentality over there was you had to go to the high school in the States in order to get exposed and for scouts to see you and that way you will get drafted high,” Correa said. “I had the option to play high school in the States, but I wanted to prove to everybody that it could be done from Puerto Rico, and being the first pick overall opened everybody’s eyes. They saw it could be done.”

 

How the evolving landscape of baseball in Puerto Rico will impact the Draft in the next decade is still to be determined. What’s certain is that there is reason for optimism. There have been 131 players drafted out of Puerto Rico since Correa was picked seven years ago.

 

“The future is going to be even better, and we have some proof with players that have come from Puerto Rico’s different academies and programs,” Beltran said. “There is still work to be done. We want to keep helping players, get the most out of them and give them opportunities through college and professional ball. But it’s about having a long-term impact, not just short-term, and changing lives, developing good players and good citizens.”

 

When his name gets called, Lugo will be the latest example.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Most recent BA draft:

 

27

Will Wilson

NC State

SS

Notes:

We keep hearing a college bat to the Cubs, so Wilson, Missouri’s Kameron Misner and UCLA’s Michael Toglia—who is gaining a lot of draft helium late—could fit here.

[Edith Cox]

Most recent BA draft:

 

27

Will Wilson

NC State

SS

Notes:

We keep hearing a college bat to the Cubs, so Wilson, Missouri’s Kameron Misner and UCLA’s Michael Toglia—who is gaining a lot of draft helium late—could fit here.

 

 

Good to head they are expected to take a college bat. Its no secret I want Misner, but I hope whoever they take has had more sucess with wood bats than some of the other names they've been linked to. I would love to know what kind of money these guys would settle to save some money to throw at a arm later.

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So Jim Callis has us taking SS Logan Davidson (which I seriously doubt). I like his mock drafts, but I think they're useful only at the top of the draft. It's really hard to predict who teams will take that deep into the draft unless you have a really good source(s).

 

So far across various mock drafts the Cubs take one of these players:

 

• College bats:
  SS Braden Shewmake
  SS Will Wilson
  SS Logan Davidson
  SS Greg Jones
  3B Kody Hoese
  OF Kam Misner
  1B/LF Michael Busch
  1B Logan Wyatt
   
  HS arms:
  RHP Daniel Espino
  RHP Jack Leiter
  RHP Quinn Priester
  RHP JJ Goss

 

Last year we had no clue the Cubs were in on Nico Hoerner and those who follow the draft thought he was going in the 30's or the second round. I don't anticipate that kind of surprise happening again, but I think the Cubs taking a HS arm in the first round would be pretty shocking. I also liked the elite group of HS arms from last year way more than this year's group even with some of the best arms not being signable last year (Kumar Rocker, Cole Wilcox and Mike Vasil). Again, I can't stress enough how dangerous it is taking a prep arm without the benefit of having multiple high draft picks.

 

Everyone has stated how weak college pitching is this year so I believe the Cubs are taking an advanced polished bat or a kinda raw athletic up-the-middle upside bat. I wouldn't mind them surprising me by taking a good HS bat if the right one falls to #27.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Regular Show

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA did a staff mock too - what the staff member would personally do with the pick, not a prediction of the draft: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-america-2019-mlb-staff-draft/

 

27. Cubs

Player: Quinn Priester, RHP, RHP Cary-Grove HS, Cary, Ill.

Writer: J.J. Cooper

 

Rationale: The Cubs should do backflips if this happens. Taking a high school pitcher in the top 10 picks is quite risky. Taking one of the best prep arms in the class—who is also from Illinois—at the end of the first round is an easier pick to make.

 

64. Cubs

Player: Brandon Williamson, LHP, Texas Christian

Writer: J.J. Cooper

 

Rationale: He's not Lodolo, but there were a few weekends this year where Williamson looked every bit as good as his TCU teammate. I'm not counting on that, but I do think he can start.

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That first rounders have gotten taller is maybe not the biggest feat, especially since we’re talking about a half inch or so. The country, and the world, has gotten taller recently, either by some process of selection or improving diet or both. What is remarkable about baseball’s first round is that the players are getting taller … and lighter. That is not a feat we’ve managed as a country.

“Country strong” is out, “lithe and lengthy” is in. First-round pitchers, in the last five years, are a whopping eight pounds lighter and a quarter inch taller than they were from 1985-1990. First-round hitters are only about a pound lighter on average than they once were, but they’re also nearly a half inch taller, and so their Body Mass Index has improved over time.

 

This effect is more muted than the maximum velocity one, and BMI is generally not a prime directive when it comes to what teams are thinking about on draft day. Brett Baty is over 6-foot-3 and probably at least 220 pounds, and both numbers are above average, but he’s powerful and power always plays; that’s how he ended up 18th in our mock draft.

 

But when you look at how baseball has trended toward position-less play —fewer balls in play, more shifts, and smaller benches have led to more utility players and position-switching than we’ve ever seen before — it does make sense to draft athletes in the first round. Athletes are more likely to take their skill set to many positions rather than gravitate toward first base, where the bar for excellence is so high that even decent hitters can bust.

[OleMissCub]

Wow. Ballsy move in the playoff.

 

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Wow. Ballsy move in the playoff.

 

He really is THAT good. Baltimore would be stupid to take anyone else at #1 IMO.

 

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I haven't listened to all of it yet. The next mock draft (4.0) should be up Monday morning.

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I'm not exactly sure if this performance moved Langeliers up the draft boards. He's ranked #10 on MLB.com's list already. It's pretty late in the scouting process so I doubt this moves the needle much.

 

The Cubs definitely have no shot at him.

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[Edith Cox]

Mayo showing me some love on his last mock....

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-on-june-2

 

27. Cubs: Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri

 

So many tools, so little performance, especially in SEC play this year. It’s possible Misner could slide out of the first round as a result, but there’s some serious upside to tap into if a team feels they can straighten him out.