2019 Draft Thread

[Hrubes20]

This isn’t 2000. There have been guys hitting 100 seemingly every year. Off the top of my head you have Tyler Kolek, Hunter Greene, Dylan Buddy, Dylan Cease, Riley Pint, Lucas Giolito, etc. So many arm surgeries in that group already, and those are just the ones I could think of without researching.

 

Granted 6 guys is better than 2-3, but it’s still 6 guys with varying degrees of bust/success (there’s two outright busts in that group) to draw a broad conclusion from. Is 100 the difference between injury and no injury?

 

Espino is the best prospect in that bunch on his draft day (if it were today) too, not even close. Two were already hurt, three didn’t have a breaking ball, and he’s way more physically talented than Bundy

 

There are more than 6. That was off the top of my head, as I was on my phone and didn't want to research. Here are a few more after a very cursory google search:

 

Stetson Allie

Mike Nikorak

Jameson Taillon

Lance McCullers Jr.

Michael Main

Nick Travieso

 

There are probably several more if I cared enough to dig deep. Let's check the collective health of these players, as my original statement was that, and I quote, "He has hit 100 multiple times as a prepster, which has been damn near the equivalent of a death sentence for a pitcher's health going forward."

 

Kolek - TJS

Greene - TJS

Bundy - TJS

Pint - Torn UCL, opted for rest and rehab but missed all of 2018 and has been predicably terrible this year

Giolito - TJS

Cease - TJS

Allie - Didn't last long enough as a pitcher to need TJS

Nikorak - TJS

Taillon - TJS

McCullers Jr - TJS

Main - Avoided any surgeries that I can see

Travieso - Shoulder surgery

 

So, that's 10 of 12 of these highly drafted prep players that hit 100 mph and had a major arm injury, with the other 2 non-injured players busting spectacularly. TJS is certainly not uncommon, but it's nowhere close to this prevalent in the rest of the pitching community. SSS of course, but until we start seeing some high velocity prep guys stay healthy, it's an overwhelmingly good bet that a guy like Espino will suffer a major arm injury in the near future. As such, no thank you.

[Hrubes20]

 

You're right -- throwing or rather hitting 100 is becoming more common among prep arms. Last year Kumar Rocker almost reached it (hit 99 mph) and I believe Ethan Hankins also almost got there when he was healthy and at peak performance. I remember way back that Stetson Allie (Pirates 2nd round pick/2010) hit 100 in HS. It's definitely started to become a regular occurrence...

 

The track record is very mixed (for this group of flamethrowing HS arms) and I don't know where you arbitarily cut it off either. Is it 95+ or upper 90's or hitting 100? Again, I really don't know, but I agree that that kind of velocity at such a young age is NOT a good thing. I want velocity gains to come gradually as a pitcher matures.

 

Also, HS pitchers rarely have smooth mechanics or land on their plant foot ideally and stay on line with home plate. They usually just rely on pure arm strength/upper body strength. Espino is doing it with a long arm-action and really whips his arm to achieve those velocities. His mechanics aren't terrible, but some things need to be cleaned up. My best guess is that he'll probably require TJS at some point.

 

Yeah, I'm sure you could do the research and find that even hitting 97 or 98 as a prep is a harbinger of future injury. I'll let someone else do that research and then I'll read it. For now, I will just continue to use 100 as any easy benchmark for a guaranteed major arm injury in the future.

[Bertz]

Mayo has us taking Hoese in his newest mock. I don't know if it's a good or bad idea, but I think he's the most interesting guy I've seen us associated with.

[Hrubes20]

Mayo has us taking Hoese in his newest mock. I don't know if it's a good or bad idea, but I think he's the most interesting guy I've seen us associated with.

 

I am quite intrigued with both Hoese and Greg Jones at 27.

[Hrubes20]

 

Couple things:

 

- I’m not sure half these guys hit 100 in HS. Taillon? Nikorak? McCullers? Travieso? Main? Yeah they all threw hard coming out but I have the same search engines everyone else has. I’m not finding Cease hitting 100 in HS either. Allie’s HS 100 got him drafted as a hitter

 

- Correlation =/= causation. Pitchers who top out below 100 have TJ surgery and get hurt all the time, there just happens to be more than twelve (tops) names in the pool. Is 100 specifically to blame for any arm injuries once reached but 99 and lower could be anything? Not sure how it works

 

- Even then this pool is a Cease callup away from four ML SPs to debut within this half decade

 

Obviously Espino carries plenty of risk but I have no hard reason to believe it’s any unusual risk for a HS pitcher.

 

I'm not going to go back for them again, but they are there. And Allie was most definitely drafted as a pitcher. Picked in the 2010 draft. Pitched in 2011. Didn't even get hitting stats until 2012. Cease famously hit 100 mph his senior year right before hurting his elbow.

 

I already discussed it with Regular Show that 100 isn't some magical number. It's high velocity in general. I personally just use 100 because there literally hasn't been one case that I have seen where a prep pitcher has avoided a major arm injury AND been productive at the big league level. Small sample size or not, that's ugly, and shouldn't be ignored. Someone will do (or maybe already has and I haven't seen it yet?) a research about the future health of prep pitchers that regularly hit in the high 90's. I fully expect that class of players to have a substantially higher rate of serious arm injury than the rest of pitchers.

 

With the bolded, are you actually arguing that higher velocity doesn't increase the odds of a major arm injury? Because science clearly disagrees with you. Numerous studies have already shown this.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mayo has us taking Hoese in his newest mock. I don't know if it's a good or bad idea, but I think he's the most interesting guy I've seen us associated with.

 

BA too. Would like to get that type of power in the system

 

27

 

Kody Hoese

Tulane

3B

Notes:

The Cubs might covet a number of the hitters who are already off the board, but Hoese is among the nation’s leaders in home runs and sounds like a lock to go somewhere in the back of the first or the supplemental first round. Campbell righthander Seth Johnson’s name begins to get mentioned around here.

[Regular Show]

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[Named After Maddux]

Mayo has us taking Hoese in his newest mock. I don't know if it's a good or bad idea, but I think he's the most interesting guy I've seen us associated with.

 

BA too. Would like to get that type of power in the system

 

27

 

Kody Hoese

Tulane

3B

Notes:

The Cubs might covet a number of the hitters who are already off the board, but Hoese is among the nation’s leaders in home runs and sounds like a lock to go somewhere in the back of the first or the supplemental first round. Campbell righthander Seth Johnson’s name begins to get mentioned around here.

 

With the track record of this front office on college hitters, I’d be very excited if they felt like they should draft Hoese. It’ll be very interesting next weekend when the mocks firm up a bit and guys like Callis and Kiley can give a better idea of who is connected to whom.

[Regular Show]

From the latest K. McDaniel chat on Fangraphs:

 

Darren: On the draft version of the Board, is Adley really the only top 100 prospect in the draft? How close are Witt/Vaughn to being a 55?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Nope all the 50’s are on the top 135 or whatever it is now, we just shuffled them and didn’t re-slot them yet. The top 5-6 would be in a top 100

 

Dan: What did Jonathan India have that Brady McConnell doesn’t? Seems like they are both high performing SEC bats who are unlikely to stick at SS. However India went top 5 and McConnell may not even go 1st round

 

Kiley McDaniel: McConnell probably goes 2nd round, but I’m still lukewarm. He struck out a lot more than India and the eye test on his swing and approach isn’t close to the same. He’s faster and a bit better defender than India, but India is a superior hitter with more game power and probably a tick more raw.

 

Robert: What’s the difference between Xavier Edwards and CJ Abrams as prospects? Obv CJ is much more the prototype height wise, but is the speed/hit/d/power/arm profile pretty much the same except for CJ maybe projecting for avg pop? Would Edwards be drafted higher in hindsight?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned this a few weeks ago. There’s a lot of cross-year comps you can make. I’ve stumped a few guys this week on Kody Hoese vs. Jonathan India. They aren’t that different but one went 5th and one will go in the 20’s. Edwards/Abrams is another one, though Abrams is taller, has more raw power and a better chance to play SS, so he is a superior prospect.

 

Taylor: I see that Quinn Priester is now the top high school arm on THE BOARD. Could you please explain what he has done to be ranked over Matthew Allen? Thank you!

 

Kiley McDaniel: It’s two different types: in terms of future/potential grades, Allan has two 65-grade pitches and 45 command, Priester has 55-60’s across the board with 50 or better command. Most teams/we lean to the Priester type

[Bertz]

Mayo has us taking Hoese in his newest mock. I don't know if it's a good or bad idea, but I think he's the most interesting guy I've seen us associated with.

 

BA too. Would like to get that type of power in the system

 

27

 

Kody Hoese

Tulane

3B

Notes:

The Cubs might covet a number of the hitters who are already off the board, but Hoese is among the nation’s leaders in home runs and sounds like a lock to go somewhere in the back of the first or the supplemental first round. Campbell righthander Seth Johnson’s name begins to get mentioned around here.

 

With the track record of this front office on college hitters, I’d be very excited if they felt like they should draft Hoese. It’ll be very interesting next weekend when the mocks firm up a bit and guys like Callis and Kiley can give a better idea of who is connected to whom.

 

Yeah that's the thing for me too. Hoese's age and lack of production prior to this year are pretty big red flags. *But* he's producing like a top 5 pick this year and has the raw power to back it up. If this FO takes him I'm a hell of a lot more likely to think he's a late bloomer rather than someone destined to be a AAAA player.

 

Also, to Raisin's point, we NEED power in the system in the worst way. Even our vaguely interesting corner bats like Jared Young aren't really big time power guys.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-draft-prospects-who-just-missed-the-top-200-list

 

John McMillon from Texas Tech and HS SS Michael Curialle seem interesting among this bunch

 

I'd be shocked if Curialle isn't at UCLA next year.

[Regular Show]

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No. 27: Chicago Cubs

Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington

The Cubs are always looking to add pitchers to their system, but they also have a knack for identifying quality college bats in the first round. Jones isn’t the prototypical polished bat they’ve usually focused on, but he’s an elite athlete with great speed and the ability to play an up-the-middle defensive position. This organization loves the latter, and it could probably use an injection of the former. — Sahadev Sharma

 

In the first mock draft on The Athletic they have their beat writers select for each team so it's Sahadev Sharma for the Cubs. This should make Hrubes20 happy lol.

 

Will Wilson is selected right before this pick to the Diamondbacks at #26 and Kameron Misner goes at #17 to the Nationals. I don't think we're taking Greg Jones because it doesn't fit what we've seen this FO do with their top pick. They're willing to take players with great athleticism that lack polish and are still raw in that 2nd/3rd round area (Jacob Hannemann and Brennan Davis). I don't think they would take that kind of player in the 1st round and Greg Jones has some doubters in regards to his swing/hit tool and how much power he'll develop. He's definitely an amazing athlete and would be the most athletic player in our system.

[Hrubes20]

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No. 27: Chicago Cubs

Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington

The Cubs are always looking to add pitchers to their system, but they also have a knack for identifying quality college bats in the first round. Jones isn’t the prototypical polished bat they’ve usually focused on, but he’s an elite athlete with great speed and the ability to play an up-the-middle defensive position. This organization loves the latter, and it could probably use an injection of the former. — Sahadev Sharma

 

In the first mock draft on The Athletic they have their beat writers select for each team so it's Sahadev Sharma for the Cubs. This should make Hrubes20 happy lol.

 

Will Wilson is selected right before this pick to the Diamondbacks at #26 and Kameron Misner goes at #17 to the Nationals. I don't think we're taking Greg Jones because it doesn't fit what we've seen this FO do with their top pick. They're willing to take players with great athleticism that lack polish and are still raw in that 2nd/3rd round area (Jacob Hannemann and Brennan Davis). I don't think they would take that kind of player in the 1st round and Greg Jones has some doubters in regards to his swing/hit tool and how much power he'll develop. He's definitely an amazing athlete and would be the most athletic player in our system.

 

Agree on all of that. It's highly unlikely that the top Cubs scouts see Jones as significantly more polished than what the accessible scouting reports are telling us at this point. It's fun to dream on, but I know it's not likely at all.

 

Also, Jones had a rough last week or two and bumped his season K rate to over 15%. That's a dealbreaker for me in the 1st round.

[Regular Show]

On ESPN in the latest mock draft by Keith Law he has the Cubs taking 1B Logan Wyatt, which is pretty disappointing if true. He's super patient and draws a ton of walks, but he doesn't hit for enough power and the swing isn't geared for power. I think he'll get exposed and this super patient approach won't work in MLB. Also, he's not great defensively.

 

If the Cubs are taking a 1B prospect the only one I really like in this draft is Michael Busch. Okay, yeah I also like Andrew Vaughn, but that's not happening...

[Hrubes20]

On ESPN in the latest mock draft by Keith Law he has the Cubs taking 1B Logan Wyatt, which is pretty disappointing if true. He's super patient and draws a ton of walks, but he doesn't hit for enough power and the swing isn't geared for power. I think he'll get exposed and this super patient approach won't work in MLB. Also, he's not great defensively.

 

If the Cubs are taking a 1B prospect the only one I really like in this draft is Michael Busch. Okay, yeah I also like Andrew Vaughn, but that's not happening...

 

Gross

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On ESPN in the latest mock draft by Keith Law he has the Cubs taking 1B Logan Wyatt, which is pretty disappointing if true. He's super patient and draws a ton of walks, but he doesn't hit for enough power and the swing isn't geared for power. I think he'll get exposed and this super patient approach won't work in MLB. Also, he's not great defensively.

 

If the Cubs are taking a 1B prospect the only one I really like in this draft is Michael Busch. Okay, yeah I also like Andrew Vaughn, but that's not happening...

 

I think most of the folks in the media know the Cubs' reputation of drafting advanced college bats and are just picking one of the best remaining ones around there. I doubt many of the media guys are working too hard on the phone lines for rumors on a team picking in the 20s unless they're like the Diamondbacks with multiple picks or they're a team that drafts interestingly like the A's or Rays.

[Regular Show]

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“From my lens, no, (it doesn’t change),” amateur scouting director Matt Dorey said Sunday while sitting in the Wrigley Field grandstand. “I’m sure there’s conversations, as there should be, because we’re always looking at windows and how guys’ contracts effect our ability to add around them. I’ve been challenged to stay disciplined (and focus on) the player pool dominating our process. (It’s) worrying about the controllables. I don’t let that added layer of noise affect how we line up our boards.

 

“If there’s a conversation that maybe talks about Player A vs. Player B, or how he potentially could impact this current window, or how he could backfill, then that’s a conversation that could be had. But it wouldn’t happen before we lined everything up, because you’re really trying to limit the noise and any other outside factors.”

 

Sunday marked the beginning of the final round of the team’s draft preparations. Dorey planned to gather on the fourth floor of the Wrigley Field office tower with national crosscheckers Sam Hughes and Ron Tostenson and regional crosscheckers Tim Adkins, Daniel Carte, Shane Farrell and Bobby Filotei. The research and development department will also be in the room presenting information on this year’s draft class. Picture 12 rolling boards filled with magnets representing around 1,150 players, divided into “demographics” like college hitters, college pitchers, high school hitters and high school pitchers.

 

The previous Sunday, the Cubs hosted an elite group of high school players and their parents for an information session and a behind-the-scenes tour of Wrigley Field. On that same day (May 19), the Cubs also ran regional workouts in Arizona, Florida and Texas that gave their scouts another close-up look at a wide range of prospects.

 

“So every year now, you’re seeing like, ‘Man, why are the college pitchers lighter and lighter?’” Dorey said. “It’s because the Mike Sorokas are in the big leagues (with Atlanta). There’s a void of high-end college pitching. Quite frankly, it’s because our industry has been able to acquire those guys (already) in the amateur draft. Not necessarily us, because we haven’t had a ton of pool money to play with. But the years that we did, that was our approach.

 

“Our theme is just literally allowing the player pool to talk to us. Let’s not force anything. We’re in a position where we can just process the very best player available. I think there’s just a lot of volatility after like the top 10 picks in this draft. You’re going to see names that a lot of the mock (drafts) don’t have go high. It’s going to be one of the most unpredictable drafts that way.”

 

Though injuries cut short last season and interrupted this year, Hoerner excelled in the Arizona Fall League, became viewed as a top-100 prospect and began this season with Double-A Tennessee. The Cubs picking another polished college hitter with up-the-middle defensive skills would be a good first-round guess for June 3.

 

“We’ve been typecast,” Dorey said. “With Nico, we had a lot of internal discussions. We do talk about the industry and how others are potentially evaluating a player we’re talking about in the first round. It did seem that – from the outside looking in – that was aggressive. But we stayed really committed to our process, meaning really letting our scouting looks and evaluations drive where he ended up on our board.

 

“We really let the full R&D process drive where he ended up on our board. We could have easily said, ‘Ah, you know what, I think he’s going to be there in the second round. We can wait.’ We let the information guide us and I think we’ll do the same thing this year.

 

“It’s one of those things we can really lean on and rely on: There’s so much trust that’s been built in that room – from scouts, from R&D, from the front office – that nobody’s second-guessing before, during or after that pick because we know we did so much work to get to that point.”

 

So there is a lot of interesting info in the article. The Cubs are finalizing their draft big board and getting some final looks at players in private workouts. The quote about being "typecast" is interesting and funny. I also think this draft is going to be pretty unpredictable, but fully expect the Cubs to take a pretty polished college bat in the 1st round. Probably one HS arm in the later rounds (maybe in the sixth round again).

[UK]

The reaction here to the Cubs 1st pick draft will be....

 

Initial - "Meh"

 

After some processing -"Eh maybe? Hopefully they're saving money for after the 1st 10."

 

More processing -" I can see why"

 

Final conclusion - "good pick."

 

Then he becomes Almora.

 

Rinse and repeat.

[Regular Show]

The reaction here to the Cubs 1st pick draft will be....

 

Initial - "Meh"

 

After some processing -"Eh maybe? Hopefully they're saving money for after the 1st 10."

 

More processing -" I can see why"

 

Final conclusion - "good pick."

 

 

Lol. This was exactly my thought process last year with the Nico Hoerner selection. I was not happy at the time (and thought they should go for someone with a higher upside), but that pick has worked out pretty well so far.

 

I'm praying Hoerner doesn't turn into Almora 2.0

[Hrubes20]

The reaction here to the Cubs 1st pick draft will be....

 

Initial - "Meh"

 

After some processing -"Eh maybe? Hopefully they're saving money for after the 1st 10."

 

More processing -" I can see why"

 

Final conclusion - "good pick."

 

 

Lol. This was exactly my thought process last year with the Nico Hoerner selection. I was not happy at the time (and thought they should go for someone with a higher upside), but that pick has worked out pretty well so far.

 

I'm praying Hoerner doesn't turn into Almora 2.0

 

Mine as well, except the initial reaction was the "they must be saving money" line.

[Regular Show]

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The Lodolo one is pretty good lol.

[Bertz]

On ESPN in the latest mock draft by Keith Law he has the Cubs taking 1B Logan Wyatt, which is pretty disappointing if true. He's super patient and draws a ton of walks, but he doesn't hit for enough power and the swing isn't geared for power. I think he'll get exposed and this super patient approach won't work in MLB. Also, he's not great defensively.

 

If the Cubs are taking a 1B prospect the only one I really like in this draft is Michael Busch. Okay, yeah I also like Andrew Vaughn, but that's not happening...

 

I think most of the folks in the media know the Cubs' reputation of drafting advanced college bats and are just picking one of the best remaining ones around there. I doubt many of the media guys are working too hard on the phone lines for rumors on a team picking in the 20s unless they're like the Diamondbacks with multiple picks or they're a team that drafts interestingly like the A's or Rays.

 

I think this is definitely the case.

 

Law did have an interesting note in his mock though:

 

I've heard them with a number of high school arms too, such as Espino or Malone, none of whom will be available at this pick in this scenario.

 

That would be an interesting departure from past years. I wonder if with like 3/4s of the entire league seeming likely to go college position player this year the pendulum has swung too far away from high school arms and the Cubs are going to zig while everyone else zags.

[Bertz]

I really want Espino the closer we get. Where did Law have him going in that scenario?

 

Espino was at 15, Malone at 21, and Priester at 26

[Bertz]

I really want Espino the closer we get. Where did Law have him going in that scenario?

 

Espino was at 15, Malone at 21, and Priester at 26

 

Thanks, did he have JT Ginn in the first? He’s my next favorite after Espino, came down on Matt Allan

 

No Ginn, in fact I don't even see him on Law's top 100.

Allan went 17 to Washington and it sounded like there's a real buzz there

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Espino was at 15, Malone at 21, and Priester at 26

 

Thanks, did he have JT Ginn in the first? He’s my next favorite after Espino, came down on Matt Allan

 

No Ginn, in fact I don't even see him on Law's top 100.

Allan went 17 to Washington and it sounded like there's a real buzz there

 

Ginn isn’t draft eligible till next year.