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2019 Draft Thread

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Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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Dude, seriously just look up pitcher injuries before you start spouting off on prospects and injuries and stuff...

 

Cole Hamels didn't suffer a shoulder injury -- he broke his humerus in his left arm. It's a well-known story. It required surgery and pitchers don't normally suffer this kind of injury (which spooked some scouts).

 

In the summer between his sophomore and junior years at Rancho Bernardo High School, Hamels broke his left arm, but it was no simple break.

 

Hamels uncorked a pitch in a summer-league game, and the only thing stranger than the pitch that sailed to the top of the backstop was the sound heard by those on the field, in the dugouts and in the stands.

 

"It was like a board snapped," said Mark Furtak, the pitching coach at Rancho Bernardo who guided Hamels before the injury and ultimately got his young charge back on track.

 

Hamels fractured his humerus, the bone that runs from the shoulder to the elbow, in two places. Initially taken to a local emergency room, Hamels sat and waited for about two hours before he was seen by a physician. Furtak said the attending physician at first hesitated about how to proceed.

 

"You don't understand," Furtak recalled saying at the moment. "This kid has a million dollar arm."

 

Fortunately, the future ace hooked up with Padres orthopedist Dr. Jan Fronek, who repaired the spiral fracture with two metal rods that were roughly the width of coat hangers.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/postseason/traces.jsp?loc=traces_hamels

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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I don't think I've mentioned him here, but RHP Evan McKendry has a sick changeup and maybe the best one in the draft. He could be a poor man's Kyle Hendricks if the command improves.

 

Hmm, I don't think LHP Graeme Stinson has the best slider among college pitchers... That's wrong and I think scouts would list many power sliders over his now. RHP Alek Manoah has a really good one.

 

I also disagree with Hunter Bishop being the best athlete among the college players. I mean he's a very good athlete for someone his size, but I'm pretty sure Greg Jones is the better athlete.

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Edith Cox College Ball

Edith Cox

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I don't think I've mentioned him here, but RHP Evan McKendry has a sick changeup and maybe the best one in the draft. He could be a poor man's Kyle Hendricks if the command improves.

 

I don't think LHP Graeme Stinson has the best slider among college pitchers... That's wrong and I think scouts would list many power sliders over his now. RHP Alek Manoah has a really good one.

 

I didn't even realize Brady McConnell was eligible for this draft, I would like to have a shot at him sometime after the first round.

Hrubes20 Draft Eligible

Hrubes20

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I don't think I've mentioned him here, but RHP Evan McKendry has a sick changeup and maybe the best one in the draft. He could be a poor man's Kyle Hendricks if the command improves.

 

Hmm, I don't think LHP Graeme Stinson has the best slider among college pitchers... That's wrong and I think scouts would list many power sliders over his now. RHP Alek Manoah has a really good one.

 

I also disagree with Hunter Bishop being the best athlete among the college players. I mean he's a very good athlete for someone his size, but I'm pretty sure Greg Jones is the better athlete.

 

Fully agreed. Jones is the fastest player in the draft, and he posted videos on his Instagram with him having a vertical over 40 inches and a huge standing broad jump (couldn't make out the distance).

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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Outstanding,but what about his baseball skills I know nothing about.

Who are you?

 

26-things-jon-snow-knows-nothing-about-1-22465-1366902846-5_big.jpg

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=draft

 

You'll find a scouting report on Greg Jones in the link. He's a solid draft prospect who probably has to move off SS to play CF. Some questions about how good he'll be with the bat and how much game power he'll develop. Probably won't be drafted in the 1st round.

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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The conventional wisdom at this moment is that the consensus six best position players in the Draft will go in the first six picks, and a run on the top tier of four college and junior college pitchers will ensue immediately afterward. (We'll break all that down in detail when we release another first-round projection tonight).

 

After that happens, teams aren't sure exactly what to expect in the middle of the first round. But it appears that a pair of high school shortstops are moving up Draft boards and suddenly could factor in the teens.

 

Gunnar Henderson (Morgan Academy, Selma, Ala.) has drawn a lot of interest from the Phillies, who pick at 14, and also has been mentioned with the Angels (No. 15), D-backs (No. 16, the first of their four first-rounders), Pirates (No. 18) and Cardinals (No. 19). Kyren Paris (Freedom High, Oakley, Calif.) isn't as much of a lock for the first round and doesn't have as many suitors as Henderson, though he has been mentioned as high as the Twins (No. 13) and Angels (No. 15).

 

One of the top hitters in the 2019 prep class, Henderson has shown more strength and quickness as a senior and has a better chance to stay at shortstop than previously thought. Paris has a line-drive bat with solid to plus speed, arm strength and defensive ability.

 

Several teams are emphasizing age when they evaluate high schoolers, and Henderson and Paris are attractive to those clubs because they'll be 17 on Draft Day. Henderson won't turn 18 until June 29 and Paris, one of the youngest players in the Draft, won't until Nov. 11. -- Jim Callis

 

McConnell stock rising

 

While it's a relatively down year for Draft prospects in Florida (there were just four from the state in MLB Pipeline’s most recent mock draft compared to nine players from the Sunshine State taken in the top 34 picks a year ago), there’s obviously still talent to consider in the top few rounds. It’s typical for college hitters who perform well to move up boards, and no one in Florida is personifying that more right now than shortstop Brady McConnell.

 

The University of Florida infielder didn’t make our initial Top 100 list, as he was a player termed by many as a “bubble guy.” But expect to see him there when the Top 200 is unveiled, as all he’s done is continue to hit as the spring has gone on in an otherwise disappointing year for the Gators (a prime example of baseball in the state being down is there’s a chance not a single NCAA Regional will be hosted there, something that does not happen often). McConnell, who was a solid prospect whose uneven senior season of high school and strong commitment to Florida saw him slide on boards two years ago, is hitting .365/.416/.640 with 15 homers and 45 RBIs in 52 games as a Draft-eligible sophomore after a 6-for-14 weekend (with three home runs) against Tennessee.

 

The jury is still out over his ability to stay at shortstop, but the good news is many think he’s athletic enough to play center field or could handle second, and that bat looks like it’s going to play. He’s put himself into top-two-round consideration and his name even came up as work was being done on that last first-round mock. -- Jonathan Mayo

CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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Draft season triple slash and K rates of Cubs’ previous first pick college bats under Theo:

 

Bryant: .329/.493/.820 and 14.6%

Schwarber: .358/.464/.659 and 10.7%

Happ: .369/.492/.672 and 19.4%

Hoerner: .349/.394/.502 and 8.6%

 

Current lines of college bats that have come up for 27:

 

Busch: .285/.447/.543 and 13.9%

Shewmake : .307/.360/.462 and 9.6%

Davidson: .300/.415/.595 and 20.3%

Strumpf: .313/.458/.511 and 18.5%

Wilson: .337/.420/.674 and 17.8%

Toglia: .303/.374/.585 and 23.3%

Jones: .341/.487/.525 and 13.8%

Quintana: .330/.464/.605 and 20.5%

Hoese: .406/.498/.831 and 9.1%

Misner: .290/.444/.497 and 22%

Wyatt: .304/.472/.508 and 14.6%

 

I’m not un-interested in Jones’ fit with the org. He was a well regarded HS recruit, a switch hitting SS probably a little less regarded than Xavier Edwards last year, and is having a breakout year as a draft eligible sophomore. Not sure if he can stick at SS, there was some 2B and CF speculation, but any works if he can bring all these offensive skills he has shown this year (hit, patience, some power, speed) to pro ball. Unlike alot of these guys, he played in the Cape and did alright with a .374 OBP and 20 steals albeit with lots of Ks

 

I really want the high level scouts to be convinced that Greg Jones will hit, so he can be the pick. That speed would be really fun.

 

Just saw this and have to say I probably agree with this. He seems to fit the mold more than most on paper with the outstanding draft season plus CCL. If the top guys buy into the breakout even if he falls to 27, he may even be the ideal pick

 

My goodness, KB's line at one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in college baseball. Still can't believe an analytically driven team like the Astros passed on him.

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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It sounds like Priester has a ton of helium and is moving up. He could potentially be the first HS pitcher taken in the first round now. That's crazy to me, but I guess his stuff/command has improved and the other top HS pitchers have taken a hit or moved down.

 

This doesn't concern the Cubs, but I really hope the Orioles don't try to get too cute here with the #1 pick. I feel like they're trying to execute the same strategy Houston pulled off by cutting deals with Mark Appel and Carlos Correa to save pool money for later picks. Just take the best player (Rutschman).

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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Not sure how serious of a prospect this guy is, but hitting 4 HRs in one game is damn impressive! Those launch angles are ridiculous. You can't swing like that in the minors/MLB and be successful unless you have incredible batspeed and amazing hand-eye coordination. I've seen clips of his swing in slow motion and it's not great -- he seems like a dead-pull hitter to me. He has good power (might be his best tool) and his overall stats are pretty good:

 

He's hitting .314/.397/.646 with 15 HRs. The strikeout rate is too high at almost 21% and he doesn't draw a ton of walks. He probably won't hit for a good average and will have to learn to tone down the swing and make more contact. I have no clue how his defense rates. The Cubs must have seen him while they were scouting Nico Hoerner last year.

 

Daschbach also might get the attention of Cubs' scouts because of his solid performance in the Cape Cod League: .306/.424/.515 (.939 OPS).

 

On Fangraphs' draft board he's listed way down the list as COL-H-10 with an FV of 35+ (which isn't bad). Probably rates as a draft prospect worth taking in rounds 5-10.

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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Interesting names in those tweets. I'm assuming they have no shot at Brennan Milone and Quinn Priester from the early draft buzz.

 

SS Yordys Valdez is a very intriguing player and I'm glad they invited him for workouts. He should go somewhere in the 2nd/3rd round area.

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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That's a bold move for both Carter Stewart and the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. I guess I could see him dominating in NPB and then coming back and signing for even more than he would've gotten in the late 1st round/2nd round area. He would have to be posted and sign as a IFA for that to happen though.

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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That is possible if Carter Stewart decides to spend the next 6 years playing in Japan before coming over. I doubt that happens and he'll probably want to come over sooner (probably has an agreement to be posted after X number of years).

Hrubes20 Draft Eligible

Hrubes20

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——

 

PG put out their third mock and had Will Wilson to the Cubs:

 

27. Chicago Cubs | Will Wilson, ss, North Carolina State

 

This could be a spot for Espino, who we have going one pick later, as well as Hoese, who goes one pick before. Chicago seems to be in a wait-and-see mode with no real preference set, but they always seem ready to grab a college bat who can hit

 

I’m really intrigued the Cubs taking a HS arm at 27, especially if it’s one of Espino or Allan, and I might like Espino a little more today. Espino’s got the velocity but I think just as impressive is the two distinct breaking balls, a changeup that may become more of a weapon in pro ball because of the velocity difference and movement, a pro ready and prototypical starting pitcher’s frame, and the lower body power, flexibility, and athleticism...

 

Today probably Espino, Allan, maybe Malone, and Goss are the only HS pitchers I’d like the Cubs to consider for 27. Malone lacks deception ane I wonder if he’ll be hittable in the pros

 

No thanks to Espino. He has hit 100 multiple times as a prepster, which has been damn near the equivalent of a death sentence for a pitcher's health going forward. I agree about Allan, but I think he goes way before the Cubs have a chance at him.

 

And no thanks to Wilson, although he would be much preferable to fellow ACC SS Logan Davidson.

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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I've seen a bunch of mock drafts and so many have Braden Shewmake falling out of the first round. Questions persist about the power and which position he settles down at or if he can stick at SS.

 

It seems with the way the ball is "juiced" in the big leagues (and at AAA now) you wouldn't worry about that as much. You figure a great contact hitter like him will hit for more power than expected. On defense, with shifting and the increasing number of strikeouts and the smaller number of plays in the infield you can optimally play a better bat at SS without sacrificing too much.

 

I'm still really high on Shewmake.

 

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For the HS bats that might be available at #27 I'm leaning towards MIF prospects Matthew Lugo and Nasim Nunez. Lugo is the better hitter, but Nunez is the better defender. I think Nunez might be the best defensive SS prospect in the draft, and if the bat never develops enough you could always convert him to pitcher. He has a cannon for an arm.

Edith Cox College Ball

Edith Cox

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That PG mock had Misner slipping to 36th. Clearly I'm biased being a believer in his tools, but if he's there I have a hard time seeing the Cubs passing on him with the level of the offense in the system. All I can see is raw Cody Bellinger when I watch him play, I hate to get my hopes up think there is a chance because one of the other 26 picks before us will have someone who sees it as well.
Hrubes20 Draft Eligible

Hrubes20

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There’s been like 2-3 prep arms that hit 100 ever. How is that a thing?

 

This isn’t 2000. There have been guys hitting 100 seemingly every year. Off the top of my head you have Tyler Kolek, Hunter Greene, Dylan Buddy, Dylan Cease, Riley Pint, Lucas Giolito, etc. So many arm surgeries in that group already, and those are just the ones I could think of without researching.

Regular Show ACL Cubs

Regular Show

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There’s been like 2-3 prep arms that hit 100 ever. How is that a thing?

 

This isn’t 2000. There have been guys hitting 100 seemingly every year. Off the top of my head you have Tyler Kolek, Hunter Greene, Dylan Buddy, Dylan Cease, Riley Pint, Lucas Giolito, etc. So many arm surgeries in that group already, and those are just the ones I could think of without researching.

 

You're right -- throwing or rather hitting 100 is becoming more common among prep arms. Last year Kumar Rocker almost reached it (hit 99 mph) and I believe Ethan Hankins also almost got there when he was healthy and at peak performance. I remember way back that Stetson Allie (Pirates 2nd round pick/2010) hit 100 in HS. It's definitely started to become a regular occurrence...

 

The track record is very mixed (for this group of flamethrowing HS arms) and I don't know where you arbitarily cut it off either. Is it 95+ or upper 90's or hitting 100? Again, I really don't know, but I agree that that kind of velocity at such a young age is NOT a good thing. I want velocity gains to come gradually as a pitcher matures.

 

Also, HS pitchers rarely have smooth mechanics or land on their plant foot ideally and stay on line with home plate. They usually just rely on pure arm strength/upper body strength. Espino is doing it with a long arm-action and really whips his arm to achieve those velocities. His mechanics aren't terrible, but some things need to be cleaned up. My best guess is that he'll probably require TJS at some point.

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