We hit the luxury tax.....

[davell]

 

Kind of cool, in a way. Looks like we have a decent shot at going over in 2017 too, based on where we are currently and what it looks like counts against it. The key is to be well under and able to reset for the post-2018 FA class. The Yankees look like they'll be able to and I think the Dodgers will find a way too, as well. Its a necessity, based on the much stricter penalties that appear to be in the new CBA.....

 

What does this mean for us currently? Well, our payroll looks to be sitting at 132.952 at this moment, per Cots....This does NOT include Arrieta(16.8 arb projection from MLBTR), Strop(5.5), Rondon(5.7), and Grimm(1.8). That's an additional 29.8 mill, which won't be exact, but good enough to use for this. That takes us to 162.752. Then, we've got to add all the pre-arb guys, based on their salaries, minus any days they're NOT in the majors. So, my guess is that puts us around 170. The luxury tax moves to 195 next year, which seems to give us some room, right?

 

Not really. First, any minor leaguer on the 40 man that happens to miss the season counts against this. Last year, Villanueva, Rosscup, Aaron Brooks, and Dallas Beeler all counted against it, at over 500,000 apiece. Granted, we don't have any of them yet, but odds are, we will.

 

Any in-season acquisitions obviously count. Chapman, Coghlan, and Joe Smith added over 9 mill last year and that doesn't account for the Joe Nathans or Joel Peraltas of the world, that we'll inevitably add.

 

The kicker though, is it appears to me that ALL top 10 round draft pick signing bonuses AND other 100,000+ signing bonuses count towards this figure too. Which shocked me. I don't have a true sense of what our draft pool will be this year, but I suspect it will be 8-9 million. So, add that to our current 170ish number and let's just call it 180, to be safe.

 

That leaves us 15 million for in-season moves AND to finish off this offseason. So yeah, I suspect we'll likely go over in 2017. A Tyson Ross signing alone, with normal trade deadline activity.....We're over. Doesn't even account for any other reliever signings, which could happen. Or a different FA starter signing.....10 mill as an over/under for the rest of the offseason? I think I'd bet on slightly over that personally. And I'm sure we'll be over 5 on in-season moves.

 

But, this DOES tell me, that unless its for a very cheap guy, or a pre-arb guy.....We won't be adding any more multi-year FA contracts this winter. Blevins? Unfortunately, I don't see it. At least not if we sign Ross to a one year, plus option type of deal.....

 

Why is that? Because we're going to try and get lean for NEXT year AND for post 2018 too. The good news, is we're in excellent shape to be under for next year.....

 

Our commitments total 79.453 for next year. But that only includes Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, and Rizzo lol. Still, its not bad, with these arb commitments......Rondon and Grimm in arb-3, with Seal Boy, Szczur, KB, Addy, and Hendricks hitting arb for the 1st time....

 

Arrieta, Montero, Lackey, Strop, Uehara, Jay, Duensing, and Wade Davis will be FA next year. That's 78.3 mill of projected salary coming off the books, which is awesome. If I throw a number out of my ass on arb guesstimates on the above group, I'll say 12 on KB, 6 on Addy, and 6 on Kyle. Who knows if any of the rest are even around? I'm hoping to be a bit high on those 3 too, but if they perform at, near, or above their current work rate, I think those are fair guesses.....

 

Still, you're looking at this squad for a tad over a 100 mill.....

 

Contreras, Rizzo, Javy, Addy, KB, Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, with Lester, Hendricks, and Monty in the rotation. No pen guys accounted for, but Carl. I'd bet we've got more than that already accounted for, but whether its Rob Z, Pena, or Grimm and Rondon, I've got no idea.....

 

At any rate, it SHOULD leave plenty of room to replace Jake and Lackey, and still add to the pen. With nominal position player additions too. Definitely see why trading for a really good, cheap SP is a HUGE deal though. Just leaves us THAT MUCH MORE to spend on a Harper, CK, Otani, Darvish, or whoever else we want to throw money at.....

 

Which kind of tells me that we could take advantage on NEXT years FA class and stay under the LT, with the Yankees and Dodgers both basically sitting out, while resetting their tax situation. Red Sox too, for that matter. We look to be in great shape to have the ability to participate in BOTH classes(and reset next year too), with the other big market guys sitting on their hands next offseason in FA.

 

A bit of a ramble here, but I got to looking thru things and thought it was worth going thru. In the end, I doubt I'm saying anything we didn't already know about the rest of this offseason. One year contracts or trades for cost controlled guys. But, I doubt we spend more than 10-15 mill in total payroll, even doing that. Because I doubt we'll want to needlessly go way over the threshold when we don't have to. But reset after next year, still be able to be real players in FA in the post 2017 class, and ALSO be able to for 2018 too, which not many of the big spenders will be able to say.

 

If I'm looking at the LT wrong, its definitely possible. Just figured I'd throw this out there and if anyone has additional info, I'd love to hear it.

[mul21]

Are you trying to tell me that you think KB, Russell, and Schwarber are going to get 12, 6, and 6 million respectively in arbitration their first year? No way that happens.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Are you trying to tell me that you think KB, Russell, and Schwarber are going to get 12, 6, and 6 million respectively in arbitration their first year? No way that happens.

 

Just for some additional context, Ryan Howard's $10 million is the record for first year arbitration.

 

I could see Boras asking for at least that and probably more if Bryant continues his level of play. If the Cubs go too low like the Phillies did when they offered $7, anything is possible. Maybe.

[davell]

With inflation, and an MVP to his credit, I DO think 12 is plausible. I'm not doing anything but guessing though, and looking at Howards 10 mill 1st time thru arb. I THINK you're conceivably supposed to get 40, 60, and 80 percent of your value in your 3 years of arb. No idea how that breaks down over 4 years.

[davell]

By Kyle, I actually meant Hendricks. Could be off, but the high finish in the Cy race will help, as would another really good season.