Why is the Offense Struggling?

[Tim]

Answer: It isn't.

 

I broke down the results by month, then over the past couple weeks to take a look. Then I dove down into the player stats by month to see who has been driving the results at different times.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

God stuff, Tim!

[Tim]

God stuff, Tim!

I didn't really think it was THAT good.

[Sammy Sofa]

Probably missing their old glasses.

[Tim]

Answer: It isn't.

Yeah. This.

[Tim]

I'd be interested in a rebuttal from anyone who thinks the offense is struggling.

[bukie]

Looking forward to the sister article, Why is the Pitching Struggling?

[Tim]

Looking forward to the sister article, Why is the Pitching Struggling?

I"ll leave that one for Duke or TT. :)

[raw]

There are some differences between May and June. Zobrist struggling. Montero being terrible. Fowler and a lot of good Soler's PAs going to Almora and Coghlan. The combination of Almora, Baez, and even Fowler and Heyward not walking as much. Not putting the ball in play as much. And basically, a lot of luck. Seems like everybody is hitting or nobody is, all at the same time. RISP not going as well.

[Tim]

There are some differences between May and June. Zobrist struggling. Montero being terrible. Fowler and a lot of good Soler's PAs going to Almora and Coghlan. The combination of Almora, Baez, and even Fowler and Heyward not walking as much. Not putting the ball in play as much. And basically, a lot of luck. Seems like everybody is hitting or nobody is, all at the same time. RISP not going as well.

Except, if you read the article, that isn't true at all.

The first thing I noticed about June was how many different players there were getting AB's. Part of that has been extra inning games and a short bench driving relievers to get PA's. But the Cubs have also introduced several players to MLB during this month because of injuries to Fowler, Montero, La Stella and Soler. The player performance this month has been much more of a mixed bag. They've gotten superstar level performance from Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras and Soler (for his limited at bats). Javy was also really good this month. Almora, Russell and Heyward were all...adequate. Zobrist was okay, but well below what is expected of him. There were also some below average, but at least mediocre performances in limited at bats from Coghlan, La Stella and Ross. But Fowler, Szczur and Montero were all dreadful in June.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Looking forward to the sister article, Why is the Pitching Struggling?

I"ll leave that one for Duke or TT. :)

 

Sounds like a good idea. :-)

[Tim]

Looking forward to the sister article, Why is the Pitching Struggling?

I"ll leave that one for Duke or TT. :)

 

Sounds like a good idea. :-)

:good:

 

The first question is whether the pitching is really struggling outside of the last turn through the rotation.

[stitchface]

I thought a 100 wRC was by definition league average?

 

On the pitching side, observation suggests BABIP regression, walks and home runs.

[Tim]

I thought a 100 wRC was by definition league average?

 

On the pitching side, observation suggests BABIP regression, walks and home runs.

Yes, a 100 wRC+ is league average, by definition. That doesn't mean it is league median, though.

 

The pitching was pretty good until the last turn through the rotation. For example, the staff had an ERA of 3.12 in the month of June, which was good for third in MLB. The starters were even better with a 2.76 ERA for the month (second behind Cleveland). It was really just the last turn through the rotation and recency bias making things feel worse that that.

 

------------------------- eta

 

Actually league average wRC+ is 96 this year for some reason.

[raw]

There are some differences between May and June. Zobrist struggling. Montero being terrible. Fowler and a lot of good Soler's PAs going to Almora and Coghlan. The combination of Almora, Baez, and even Fowler and Heyward not walking as much. Not putting the ball in play as much. And basically, a lot of luck. Seems like everybody is hitting or nobody is, all at the same time. RISP not going as well.

Except, if you read the article, that isn't true at all.

The first thing I noticed about June was how many different players there were getting AB's. Part of that has been extra inning games and a short bench driving relievers to get PA's. But the Cubs have also introduced several players to MLB during this month because of injuries to Fowler, Montero, La Stella and Soler. The player performance this month has been much more of a mixed bag. They've gotten superstar level performance from Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras and Soler (for his limited at bats). Javy was also really good this month. Almora, Russell and Heyward were all...adequate. Zobrist was okay, but well below what is expected of him. There were also some below average, but at least mediocre performances in limited at bats from Coghlan, La Stella and Ross. But Fowler, Szczur and Montero were all dreadful in June.

 

I read the article. And what you said doesn't prove what I said is wrong. By "everbody is hiting or nobody is at the same time", I meant that the offense seemed to be really feast or famine. In June, the Cubs scored 3 or fewer 11 times in 28 games. But they also scored 7 or more 8 times, and scored 6 another 4 times.

[Tim]

There are some differences between May and June. Zobrist struggling. Montero being terrible. Fowler and a lot of good Soler's PAs going to Almora and Coghlan. The combination of Almora, Baez, and even Fowler and Heyward not walking as much. Not putting the ball in play as much. And basically, a lot of luck. Seems like everybody is hitting or nobody is, all at the same time. RISP not going as well.

Except, if you read the article, that isn't true at all.

The first thing I noticed about June was how many different players there were getting AB's. Part of that has been extra inning games and a short bench driving relievers to get PA's. But the Cubs have also introduced several players to MLB during this month because of injuries to Fowler, Montero, La Stella and Soler. The player performance this month has been much more of a mixed bag. They've gotten superstar level performance from Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras and Soler (for his limited at bats). Javy was also really good this month. Almora, Russell and Heyward were all...adequate. Zobrist was okay, but well below what is expected of him. There were also some below average, but at least mediocre performances in limited at bats from Coghlan, La Stella and Ross. But Fowler, Szczur and Montero were all dreadful in June.

 

I read the article. And what you said doesn't prove what I said is wrong. By "everbody is hiting or nobody is at the same time", I meant that the offense seemed to be really feast or famine. In June, the Cubs scored 3 or fewer 11 times in 28 games. But they also scored 7 or more 8 times, and scored 6 another 4 times.

Ahhhh...reading problem on my part. I thought you meant for long stretches at a time instead of individual games.

 

All offenses are like that. I'll see if I can find a way to analyze this for the Cubs compared to the other teams, though.

[Tim]

okay...this took a ridiculous amount of time, but it is leading to some cool new features for the site.

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/images/2016-07-05_21-54-31.png

Here's an image comparing the Cubs runs per game histogram with the Red Sox (best scoring team in baseball) with a background of all the other mlb teams. The Cubs line at the tail is behind other teams, but they've got games out there to the right, as well.

 

Basically, the Cubs have fewer clunkers than the vast majority of teams and a lot more good games than other teams. They are no more Jekyll and Hyde than any other team except for the fact that they actually have more good games than the other schmucks.

[Tim]

Here's the runs per game for the Cubs:

 

Runs in Game	Count
0   4
1   5
2  12
3   9
4   8
5   7
6   9
7   7
8   9
9   6
10  2
11  1
12  1
13  1
14  1
16  1

[Tim]

For example, the Cards have scored 0 or 1 runs 15 times so far this year. The Cubs have scored that few only 9 times.

[Tim]

Does anyone see this as an interesting enough tool for me to put in the time to do the same thing on the pitching side? I notice fewer than 10 people have actually checked the page I created for looking at this. Here's that link again: http://www.northsidebaseball.com/tools/run-distribution