Hot Streaks in Baseball

[LeonDurham]

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/jeffrey-zwiebel-why-hot-hand-may-be-real-after-all

 

 

To test their ideas, Zwiebel and Green amassed data on 2 million Major League Baseball at-bats over 12 years. They looked at 10 categories of performance, from batting averages and home-run percentages to strike-out rates. For pitchers, they looked at data such as the average number of hits allowed. They also controlled for the fundamental ability of both pitchers and hitters, in order to isolate the actual "streakiness" of a player's performance.

The result: A player's most recent 25 times at bat was a significant predictor of how that player would do at his next time up — good enough to justify an adaptive reaction by coaches. When a player is "hot," the researchers calculated, his expected on-base percentage will be 25 to 30 points higher than it would be if he just has been "cold." Similarly, a player on a hot streak will be 30% more likely to hit a home run than if he has been on a cold streak.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Imagine the insane lineup concoctions if Joe got his hands on this and bought in