BA's Cubs 2015-16 Top 10 Prospects

[craig]

I think Manuel has Happ too high. I included Edwards in my top ten; Happ, Candelario, and DelaRosa were three who I didn't include. Why is Happ too high?

1. So many K's. He's got the nice stroke that appeals to scouts. But, he's consistently been a high-K guy in college, and he's been a high-K guy in his first pro summer, even against short-season and A- pitching. K-issues are a concern to me for a guy who's gotten quite a few post-HS AB's. There might be some good underlying reasons why he so frequently swings-and-misses. And swing-and-miss issues usually get worse up the ladder, particularly in the majors.

2. Overrated Defense. I think Manuel seems too favorable about Happ's defense. Manuel casts his 2B defense in a favorable light, and made Zobrist allusions, and hopefully for good reason. But I'm pretty guarded/skeptical there. I know he played 2B in instrux, and he played center in minors, but I'm somewhat doubtful that he'll really be big-league average at either 2B or CF, or anything like Zobrist who's a super fluid/coordinated/instinctive guy everywhere. Az Phil is of course no scout; but his comment on 2B Happ in instrux was "looks stiff". I'm guessing that perhaps Happ will blossom defensively and perhaps be able to give LaStella-caliber 2B, or Denorfia-caliber CF. But I'm guessing that really LF/RF are the only two positions where he's got much chance to ever be a big-league asset defensively.

[craig]

3 thoughts:

1. Manuel suggested 7-12 for Cubs placement. That seems pretty reasonable to me, although perhaps a little high. I think often the guys who write up a particular organization tend to fall in love with their guys a little bit. Some of the other BA guys might not value the Cubs as much, so wouldn't be surprised if they ended somewhere more around 15, but whatever. Doesn't matter much either way.

 

2. Much of Manuel's info comes from other scouts, but also talking to internal Cubs people. That's especially true for low-exposure guys like DelaRosa, Jiminez, Cease, and instrux-level Happ. Not tons of premier scouts flocking to Northwest-League games. I suspect Cubs sources probably pump their guys pretty much, even if not necessarily as flagrantly as Hendry and Fleita did. When you look at Manuel's info, several key evals hinge on Cub sources:

*Torres: "Some club officials give Torres plus future power"

*Happ: "He focused solely on playing second base in instructional league and impressed club officials with his athleticism, making throws from all angles and improving his footwork."

*De La Cruz: "His fastball sits in the 92-93 mph range but bumps 97 regularly when his delivery is in sync" (seems like Cubs info....) "Club officials try to rein in their enthusiasm with regard to de la Cruz, but they clearly have high hopes for him."

 

Cubs know more and give more thought to their guys than anybody else. So, honest internal eval is probably more valuable than any other source we have access to. And given the recent success the Cubs have had with their evaluations and development, plus how articular Cubs guys tend to be, I can see how Manuel would tend to respect their input. Still, it does make me wonder if what Manuel hears and what influences his rankings, whether all of that really is honest or not? Call me guarded.... :)

 

3. Pretty impressive/encouraging to have a system with so many impact graduations, and then still have possible impact guys like Cease/DelaRosa/Jiminez still hanging out in the 5-9 range, and still have many possible perfectly-solid-regulars prospects like Contreras/Almora/McKinney/Candelario still included, and to have a possible impact-reliever like Edwards not even make it. And to have a guy like Eddy Julio Martinez who may be JAG but perhaps will be a special athlete who perhaps will also hit besides waiting behind, and a nice prospect like Steele waiting to perhaps earn solid top-10 future. Good place to be.

[toonsterwu]

I wonder if the Happ ranking is sort of by default. That is, it's somewhat hard figuring out who to put up there, and with a respected college pedigree, you are sort of hoping on it.

 

The Zobrist comps - don't like. Zobrist was a shortstop coming up (even in the Astros farm coming up, IIRC). A lot more fluid than Happ seems to be. Happ, at the same age, seems to have much more offensive potential. Just an odd comp, IMO (other than 2nd/possible corner OF ...).

 

The beauty of this list, if anything, is in it's identification of upside, which, in some respects, gives us a better grasp of how Manuel's sources are feeling on other guys as well. I mean, in noting de la Cruz and Cease's pitching upside, and Underwood as a possible 3, it sort of gives us an identification on the potential ceiling of other arms.

 

As for de la Cruz, even I tend to think that report was a bit gushing (now, he did have such a season that perhaps all the scouts that saw him were that gushing), and I've been fascinated with de la Cruz. On profile, this is an exciting kid. Frame, stuff, velo, mechanics - I mean, on paper, other than a good 3rd option, which is fine at his age, he's a fascinating arm. Profiles only matter when it comes to rankings, though. I do think de la Cruz sounds far more intriguing than any Latin American arm we've had come through the pipeline in a LONG time.

 

As for the system rank, I did a quick scan when this came up in another thread, and while systems across the board are down, I still have, on a quick glance, around 10 teams ahead of the Cubs myself.