8/17 Other Games

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I don't really care about these head-to-head match-ups right now. They really do little to affect our current odds of winning the World Series. And we won't know if these games will actually affect us in the Wild Card or Division races until much later in the season. It might end up being a ten-game gap in either direction.

 

The Cardinals sweeping the Giants improves our World Series odds more right now. But, that could change very quickly if any of the competing teams goes on a run or falls off. And, it also hurts our chances of reaching our optimal World Series odds at the end of the regular season: winning the division and being a 10+% chance. It's not quite as simple as our World Series odds going up 5% by winning the division and down 5% by not making the playoffs, because these odds are fluid. What helps them now might actually suck when we look back on it.

 

So, I'm Team Happy to See the Giants Lose... but, also Team [expletive] the Cardinals; Let's Take the Division. But, I'll care more about these games when I look back at them a month from now.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

something worth mentioning is that we don't just want to just finish ahead of the giants, we want to finish far enough ahead of them that we can set the rotation up for the wild card game and beyond.

 

Yes, but maybe we finish with the first Wild Card and want the Giants to finish close enough to the Pirates, so that neither of those two teams could set their rotation up for the Wild Card Game.

[Guest]

i know this is LOSER TALK, but as a fan viewing for entertainment, a playoff appearance without a world series win still has value to me. i feel like the difference between blowing the second WC and losing in the WC game is a lot bigger than the difference between losing in the WC game and losing in the nlcs. even though missing the wild card by a small margin would have no impact on their success past this year (or my optimism past this year), it would still be a much bigger kick in the nuts than losing the wild card game would be.

 

also, i'm not convinced that the cardinals losing positively impacts our chances of getting to the nlds more than the giants losing. i think most of the NL is so bad that the giants stand out enough to root heavily against.

[Guest]

BUY A DOG

[JonJayCutler]

Bless your souls for thinking we can catch the Cardinals. We just went on a 16-3 stretch and gained like 2 [expletive] games on them. We're not catching them, because they simply won't lose enough to allow it. All 5 SPs with sub-3 ERAs guys. Has that even been done before?

 

If that's loser talk then so be it. Giants and Pirates both losing on an off day was huge.