2015 lineup or no?

[Guest]

It's interesting that you cut the entirety of the rest of that paragraph.

 

After talking to the young man about his craft, though, and assessing his skillset and the values of his major league team, it seemed obvious to me that he’ll be a shortstop when he’s announced into the lineup for the first time in the big leagues.

There are also a slew of scouting references out there to how he will stick there.

[Guest]

Not the best way to measure field, for certain, but in 28 games at SS in Tennessee he has made all of one error.

 

He will stick at SS.

[seanimal]

no tim, it's not interesting that i cut out the rest of the paragraph. the point was to show that the idea of him moving off of 3B based on his body doesn't have anything to do with how fat he was in 2010. which was the point of including that quote, as he speaks of those opinions in the present tense

[Guest]

BA from this spring:

 

Russell tried bulking up in high school to become more of a power hitter, but the extra muscle did little more than relegate him to third base with Team USA. As a result, he refocused his efforts on making sure he could stay at shortstop, and few question his defensive future now. Russell has solid fundamentals and takes good angles to balls. His lower half works well, and he has the range and athleticism to make plenty of highlight-quality plays. He doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, but it’s strong enough for the position and plays up thanks to his quick transfer and accuracy.

[seanimal]

errors. in 28 AA games. ok

 

anyway, lets just pretend like the context of the team he will be playing for will have no impact upon what position he ends up playing at the major league level

[seanimal]

BA from this spring:

 

Russell tried bulking up in high school to become more of a power hitter, but the extra muscle did little more than relegate him to third base with Team USA. As a result, he refocused his efforts on making sure he could stay at shortstop, and few question his defensive future now. Russell has solid fundamentals and takes good angles to balls. His lower half works well, and he has the range and athleticism to make plenty of highlight-quality plays. He doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, but it’s strong enough for the position and plays up thanks to his quick transfer and accuracy.

 

lol right, what i said was that i'm interested in how scouts react to this year's defensive performance. and also that some question his long-term position. i'm still waiting for you to actually prove why either of these are unreasonable statements to make

[Guest]

errors. in 28 AA games. ok

 

anyway, lets just pretend like the context of the team he will be playing for will have no impact upon what position he ends up playing at the major league level

You're actually quite good at eliminating context from what you quote / paraphrase.

[seanimal]

lmao come the [expletive] on. i wasn't divorcing context from anything. i was pointing out that people still think this thing. what the author does after doing so has NOTHING to do with what I was illuminating by quoting it. the conclusions of the article don't change the fact that some still think he won't stick at SS for reasons related to his physique. how is this a thing i have to continue to point out?

[Guest]

BA from this spring:

 

Russell tried bulking up in high school to become more of a power hitter, but the extra muscle did little more than relegate him to third base with Team USA. As a result, he refocused his efforts on making sure he could stay at shortstop, and few question his defensive future now. Russell has solid fundamentals and takes good angles to balls. His lower half works well, and he has the range and athleticism to make plenty of highlight-quality plays. He doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, but it’s strong enough for the position and plays up thanks to his quick transfer and accuracy.

 

lol right, what i said was that i'm interested in how scouts react to this year's defensive performance. and also that some question his long-term position. i'm still waiting for you to actually prove why either of these are unreasonable statements to make

Well, that's one of the things you said.

 

Unfortunately, they don't publish UZR ratings for AA. We won't get the "official" scouting reports until after the year. What we do know so far this year is that he has been exceptionally steady at SS and will have no concerns about errors driving him off the position, which we did have with Alcantara and Baez (the point of posting error rates for SS prospects, in case you just don't get it).

 

FWIW, I have not heard any negative reports at all about his defense so far, but have seen positive comments here and there.

 

The overwhelming consensus of scouting opinion over the past 12 months is that he will stick at SS for a long time.

[Guest]

lmao come the [expletive] on. i wasn't divorcing context from anything. i was pointing out that people still think this thing. what the author does after doing so has NOTHING to do with what I was illuminating by quoting it. the conclusions of the article don't change the fact that some still think he won't stick at SS for reasons related to his physique. how is this a thing i have to continue to point out?

The very author you are quoting comes to the conclusion that he has no doubts about Russell sticking at SS. You are totally ignoring context.

 

In my post, you're ignoring the context that I specifically called out the limitations of measuring defense with errors. What I didn't spell out -- because I didn't think I needed to -- is that while a lack of errors does not necessarily mean he will be able to stick at SS, a preponderance of errors DOES mean that a guy will have to be moved. Russell has no such risk, which brings it all down to range as opposed to consistency.

[Guest]

no tim, it's not interesting that i cut out the rest of the paragraph. the point was to show that the idea of him moving off of 3B based on his body doesn't have anything to do with how fat he was in 2010. which was the point of including that quote, as he speaks of those opinions in the present tense

 

or maybe it does. how the hell do you know it doesn't? how do you know that that's not the origin of any such concerns, especially considering he has handled the position just fine (understatement) by almost all accounts?

[Guest]

lmao come the [expletive] on. i wasn't divorcing context from anything. i was pointing out that people still think this thing. what the author does after doing so has NOTHING to do with what I was illuminating by quoting it. the conclusions of the article don't change the fact that some still think he won't stick at SS for reasons related to his physique. how is this a thing i have to continue to point out?

 

your frenzied response to being questioned on this is really bizarre.

[seanimal]

BA from this spring:

 

Russell tried bulking up in high school to become more of a power hitter, but the extra muscle did little more than relegate him to third base with Team USA. As a result, he refocused his efforts on making sure he could stay at shortstop, and few question his defensive future now. Russell has solid fundamentals and takes good angles to balls. His lower half works well, and he has the range and athleticism to make plenty of highlight-quality plays. He doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, but it’s strong enough for the position and plays up thanks to his quick transfer and accuracy.

 

lol right, what i said was that i'm interested in how scouts react to this year's defensive performance. and also that some question his long-term position. i'm still waiting for you to actually prove why either of these are unreasonable statements to make

Well, that's one of the things you said.

 

no, there are two things that i said there:

 

1) some question his long term position

2) i'm interested in how scouts react to this year's defensive performance

 

Unfortunately, they don't publish UZR ratings for AA. We won't get the "official" scouting reports until after the year.

 

interesting. it's almost as if I was saying "hey, i wonder what those will say." if i had to do it all over again, i would say that. lesson learned

 

What we do know so far this year is that he has been exceptionally steady at SS and will have no concerns about errors driving him off the position, which we did have with Alcantara and Baez (the point of posting error rates for SS prospects, in case you just don't get it).

 

yes, you can extrapolate from my dismissive attitude towards your 28-game sample size that i don't get why error rates would matter for SS prospects. totally reasonable

 

FWIW, I have not heard any negative reports at all about his defense so far, but have seen positive comments here and there.

 

The overwhelming consensus of scouting opinion over the past 12 months is that he will stick at SS for a long time.

 

no negative reports heard + positive comments seen + not fat since junior year = overwhelming consensus

 

good talk

[seanimal]

lmao come the [expletive] on. i wasn't divorcing context from anything. i was pointing out that people still think this thing. what the author does after doing so has NOTHING to do with what I was illuminating by quoting it. the conclusions of the article don't change the fact that some still think he won't stick at SS for reasons related to his physique. how is this a thing i have to continue to point out?

 

your frenzied response to being questioned on this is really bizarre.

 

well when you put it that way

[Guest]

The BA quote I posted from the offseason specifically says that the majority of scouts feel his future is firmly at SS.

 

Here's a blurb from August:

Addison Russell, ss, Tennessee (Cubs): Before he fights Javier Baez to play shortstop in Chicago, Russell has some work to do with the Smokies. He missed a good chunk of the first half with a torn hamstring (hello, second straight year in the Arizona Fall League), then was dealt from the Athletics to the Cubs on the Fourth of July as part of the package that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Bay Area. He clubbed two homers in three games this weekend has thrived overall with his new club. In 18 games with Tennessee, he’s hitting .293/.333/.566 with eight homers and 18 RBIs. Oh, and he plays pretty fantastic defense, too.

 

There have also been a slew of media reports that while Baez and Alcantara won't move Castro, it is very likely that Russell will if/when he reaches MLB because he is a plus defender at SS.

 

You have one quote that makes vague reference to "some scouts" where we have no idea how current that source is or even if the author is just saying that to set up the rest of his paragraph conclusion that he's convinced he'll stay at SS.

[Guest]

BA from this spring:

 

Russell tried bulking up in high school to become more of a power hitter, but the extra muscle did little more than relegate him to third base with Team USA. As a result, he refocused his efforts on making sure he could stay at shortstop, and few question his defensive future now. Russell has solid fundamentals and takes good angles to balls. His lower half works well, and he has the range and athleticism to make plenty of highlight-quality plays. He doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, but it’s strong enough for the position and plays up thanks to his quick transfer and accuracy.

 

lol right, what i said was that i'm interested in how scouts react to this year's defensive performance. and also that some question his long-term position. i'm still waiting for you to actually prove why either of these are unreasonable statements to make

Well, that's one of the things you said.

 

no, there are two things that i said there:

 

1) some question his long term position

2) i'm interested in how scouts react to this year's defensive performance

 

Unfortunately, they don't publish UZR ratings for AA. We won't get the "official" scouting reports until after the year.

 

interesting. it's almost as if I was saying "hey, i wonder what those will say." if i had to do it all over again, i would say that. lesson learned

 

What we do know so far this year is that he has been exceptionally steady at SS and will have no concerns about errors driving him off the position, which we did have with Alcantara and Baez (the point of posting error rates for SS prospects, in case you just don't get it).

 

yes, you can extrapolate from my dismissive attitude towards your 28-game sample size that i don't get why error rates would matter for SS prospects. totally reasonable

 

FWIW, I have not heard any negative reports at all about his defense so far, but have seen positive comments here and there.

 

The overwhelming consensus of scouting opinion over the past 12 months is that he will stick at SS for a long time.

 

no negative reports heard + positive comments seen + not fat since junior year = overwhelming consensus

 

good talk

btw - the BA quote at the top of this quote (you know, the guys who talk to scouts throughout MLB) specifically say that few question his defense any longer.

 

oh, that's right, you dismissed it because it isn't current.

 

but you place great emphasis on an article that was written longer ago than that. By a much less well place source than BA.

[Guest]

From a BP article in April:

 

The overall, no-weakness package of Russell edges out Lindor here for me. There's nothing flashy to his game (no elite tool)—Baez could hit 40 bombs, Lindor is a defensive wizard—so he gets underrated a little bit because of that, but sometimes not having a weakness is just as good. I'll have a luxury with Addison Russell when he's in the field and at the plate, without selling myself short (pun only slightly intended).

 

Russell might not be the plus-plus defender Lindor is, but he is a shortstop. At the plate, I love the hands; plus bat speed; uses all fields. Needs to shrink the zone a bit, and might always have a little swing-and-miss because he's an aggressive hitter, but it's a 6/6 future for me. He's got (at least) plus makeup as well. I don't know who in the world has played more baseball since signing than this guy. He got out to the minor leagues after signing, aggressive assignment with High-A in his first full season out of high school, AFL ball. But the best part about it is he is making such loud improvements and keeps getting better.” –Ron Shah

I'd link the article, but it's behind a paywall.

[Guest]

Sneaky, Raisin (or anyone else): Anything to add?

[seanimal]

this is officially the worst argument ever

 

tim, i'm not arguing whether or not a significant/majority/overwhelming landslide dominating proportion of scouts are convinced of his ability to stick at SS. your fixation on this seems misplaced to me. furthermore, just because that is true does not also mean that the opinion a) is held by everyone and b) cannot change over time. hence, my statement about wanting to see what people say about his performance this year. it's a fluid thing. what exactly is objectionable about expressing a desire to pay attention to something?

[Guest]

this is officially the worst argument ever

 

tim, i'm not arguing whether or not a significant/majority/overwhelming landslide dominating proportion of scouts are convinced of his ability to stick at SS. your fixation on this seems misplaced to me. furthermore, just because that is true does not also mean that the opinion a) is held by everyone and b) cannot change over time. hence, my statement about wanting to see what people say about his performance this year. it's a fluid thing. what exactly is objectionable about expressing a desire to pay attention to something?

Here is your original statement:

 

the older scouting pieces on russell suggest a "frame" or "build" that isn't suited to SS long-term. i'm interested to see the revised outlook on his positional future after this season. my guess is that if castro is still around when russell's time is here, he'll stay at SS

1) The old scouting reports you mentioned had already been superceded by pretty much glowing reports about his defense that have been referenced here already

2) Literally nothing has come out bad about his defense since then

3) What reports have come out during the year (I've quoted some) have been even more glowing

4) What little data we do have points to success in at least one part of the job

 

What additional scouting reports are you looking for? Ones that support your position while you ignore all others? You have ignored every piece of supporting evidence I've posted and keep repeating that I haven't put forward anything to support my position.

 

It makes sense to follow these things. Many of us here follow extremely closely (including me). Russell is a plus defensive SS. The only reason Castro would play SS over Russell is if the team values not upsetting the veteran more than putting the best defensive alignment possible on the field.

[seanimal]

this is officially the worst argument ever

 

tim, i'm not arguing whether or not a significant/majority/overwhelming landslide dominating proportion of scouts are convinced of his ability to stick at SS. your fixation on this seems misplaced to me. furthermore, just because that is true does not also mean that the opinion a) is held by everyone and b) cannot change over time. hence, my statement about wanting to see what people say about his performance this year. it's a fluid thing. what exactly is objectionable about expressing a desire to pay attention to something?

Here is your original statement:

 

the older scouting pieces on russell suggest a "frame" or "build" that isn't suited to SS long-term. i'm interested to see the revised outlook on his positional future after this season. my guess is that if castro is still around when russell's time is here, he'll stay at SS

1) The old scouting reports you mentioned had already been superceded by pretty much glowing reports about his defense that have been referenced here already

2) Literally nothing has come out bad about his defense since then

3) What reports have come out during the year (I've quoted some) have been even more glowing

4) What little data we do have points to success in at least one part of the job

 

What additional scouting reports are you looking for? Ones that support your position while you ignore all others? You have ignored every piece of supporting evidence I've posted and keep repeating that I haven't put forward anything to support my position.

 

It makes sense to follow these things. Many of us here follow extremely closely (including me). Russell is a plus defensive SS. The only reason Castro would play SS over Russell is if the team values not upsetting the veteran more than putting the best defensive alignment possible on the field.

 

my comment about who would stick at SS was just a throwaway guess that i just tacked on to the end of a statement expressing my excitement at seeing what conclusions the experts draw from this year. i literally have no stake in this, no position to support. i wasn't looking for evidence to support some idea that i have about him being destined for 3rd base, nor was i disregarding evidence to the contrary. that's not the conversation i was trying to have. but let's not let that get in the way

[Guest]

So you're saying that the ONLY thing you were attempting to convey was a desire to see what the scouts say about his defense at the end of the season?

 

What a weird way to put it.

[jumbo]

Here I was worried that the "Castro to 3rd" argument was going to restart. I accepted that Russell can play MLB shortstop based on Law's comments, which were rather glowing.

[sneakypower]

Sneaky, Raisin (or anyone else): Anything to add?

eh, not really

 

i posted this immediately following the Russell trade, and my thoughts haven't really changed very much

Alcantara CF, Russell 3B, Rizzo 1B, Bryant RF, Castro SS, Soler LF, Baez 2B, Castillo C

 

also,

Russell is a plus defensive SS.

if i accept this to be true, then he's definitively the best prospect in baseball*, and i'd be happy to see 3B & SS switched on my above lineup (Soler can be pushed ahead of Bryant, too, but that's like, whatever)

 

 

*not named Jorge Soler

[Guest]

Sneaky, Raisin (or anyone else): Anything to add?

eh, not really

 

i posted this immediately following the Russell trade, and my thoughts haven't really changed very much

Alcantara CF, Russell 3B, Rizzo 1B, Bryant RF, Castro SS, Soler LF, Baez 2B, Castillo C

 

also,

Russell is a plus defensive SS.

if i accept this to be true, then he's definitively the best prospect in baseball*, and i'd be happy to see 3B & SS switched on my above lineup (Soler can be pushed ahead of Bryant, too, but that's like, whatever)

 

 

*not named Jorge Soler

wow, I thought you were calling him the #1 prospect in baseball because you were factoring in positional value vs Bryant and Soler. Having him at #1 above Bryant as a 3B must assign a whole bunch of defensive value difference at 3B between the two (well, baserunning, as well).