NFL Week 1 (Sept. 5th-9th)

[ELCABALLO45]

No idea.

 

Or why when Colin Kaepernick comes into the game, you don't sell out on the run.

[Guest]

it's going to be fun to watch GB's secondary try to deal with our receivers.

[Cubswin11]

it's going to be fun to watch GB's secondary try to deal with our receivers.

Eh, Cutler won't get the time in the pocket Smith has gotten today. Not to say Cutler shouldn't have his way with their secondary. But I don't think the results will come as easy as they are for Smith today.

Edited September 9, 2012 by Cubswin11

[Guest]

it's going to be fun to watch GB's secondary try to deal with our receivers.

Eh, Cutler won't get the time in the pocket Smith has gotten today

 

He'll have enough.

[ELCABALLO45]

Packers need to score here. The 49ers might be the best team in the NFL. Never thought I would say that.

[Magnetic Curses]

i think the packers should consider replacing dom capers

[XZero771679666304]

it's going to be fun to watch GB's secondary try to deal with our receivers.

Eh, Cutler won't get the time in the pocket Smith has gotten today

 

He'll have enough.

 

The fact he's Jay Cutler and not Alex Smith will also help.

[Guest]

it's going to be fun to watch GB's secondary try to deal with our receivers.

Eh, Cutler won't get the time in the pocket Smith has gotten today

 

He'll have enough.

 

The fact he's Jay Cutler and not Alex Smith will also help.

 

Along with the rest of the skill players aside from the TE position.

[Smack]

Packers need to score here. The 49ers might be the best team in the NFL. Never thought I would say that.

 

Yeah, those 49ers never win anything.

[Smack]

#PackerFanArrogance

[XZero771679666304]

Packers need to score here. The 49ers might be the best team in the NFL. Never thought I would say that.

 

Yeah, those 49ers never win anything.

 

He's like 12 years old, he probably doesn't remember.

[ELCABALLO45]

Packers need to score here. The 49ers might be the best team in the NFL. Never thought I would say that.

 

Yeah, those 49ers never win anything.

 

He's like 12 years old, he probably doesn't remember.

 

Yup, 12 sounds about right.

[Smack]

Oh, 5 Super Bowls you say?

[ELCABALLO45]

Before last year, they hadn't made the playoffs since 2002. That's what I was implying.

 

Sorry.

[Guest]

All that mocking aside, the 49ers are not the best team in the NFL.

[XZero771679666304]

Oh, 5 Super Bowls you say?

 

Yeah, it wasn't long ago at all that the 49ers were the Patriots.

[XZero771679666304]

All that mocking aside, the 49ers are not the best team in the NFL.

 

But they have to be, they're beating up on the Packers. None other than the best team in the NFL could do that.

[Banedon]

Teams with Alex Smith as QB are disqualified from consideration as best team in the conference.

[ELCABALLO45]

I actually had them as the best team coming into this year.

 

Best defense in the NFL. Offense that doesn't turn it over, and now they have Randy Moss for red zone trips. Just my opinion.

[ELCABALLO45]

Teams with Alex Smith as QB are disqualified from consideration as best team in the conference.

 

You have not watched Alex Smith lately, have you?

[Guest]

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/2012/07/31/5-questions-with-football-outsiders/#storylink=cpy

 

Q: According to this year’s Almanac, the Seahawks’ mean win projection is 7.2 wins, which I believe is the same as San Francisco. First off, how did you arrive at the number? And secondly, how did a team that finished 13-3 last season in San Francisco end up with such a low number. And lastly, based on your projection what will it take for Seattle to surpass the seven-win mark and compete for a playoff spot this season?

 

Aaron Schatz: The mean win projections are based on a complicated process. It starts with an equation that projects each team’s quality for the season based on a number of different variables – experience, offseason roster changes, different splits and various specific stats from the past two seasons.

 

We then simulate a number of different possible results from this equation, and then use the resulting ratings to play the season over and over. In the end, what we have are one million sample seasons that give us an idea of what we can expect from each team this year – what’s likely, and what’s unlikely.

 

I’ve written a lot about the San Francisco projection this preseason, since that’s the most controversial one we’ve made. Let me see if I can run down the issues quickly.

 

– The Plexiglass Principle: Teams that make a dramatic improvement tend to decline in year three, while teams that make a dramatic fall tend to improve in year three. Since 1978, eleven teams have improved by seven or more wins from one season to the next. Not counting the 49ers, the ten other teams declined by an average of 4.7 wins the following year.

 

– Offense is more consistent than defense from season to season, and defense is more consistent than special teams. The 49ers’ success was primarily built on defense and special teams, which are more likely to regress towards the mean than a similarly strong offensive team (say, the Patriots).

 

– The 49ers were superbly healthy, especially on defense, and that’s unlikely to be the case this year; you have to assume that teams will generally have an average number of injuries each year.

 

– Alex Smith doesn’t have a track record of being an above-average quarterback. He’s been in the league seven seasons, and last year was the first time he was above average, so it is hard to believe he’ll be above average again. (Objectively, that is; subjectively, we’re big believers in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching skills.)

[XZero771679666304]

Teams with Alex Smith as QB are disqualified from consideration as best team in the conference.

 

You have not watched Alex Smith lately, have you?

 

He's become a competent game manager, but he's not striking fear into anyone's heart.

[ELCABALLO45]

Teams with Alex Smith as QB are disqualified from consideration as best team in the conference.

 

You have not watched Alex Smith lately, have you?

 

He's become a competent game manager, but he's not striking fear into anyone's heart.

 

He doesn't need to.

 

Ask the Saints.

[bcl412]

Green Bay doesn't really look like a good team. I'm not sure I'm confident of the playoffs. Then again, I always say stuff like this when it comes to football.

[Careless]

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/2012/07/31/5-questions-with-football-outsiders/#storylink=cpy

 

Q: According to this year’s Almanac, the Seahawks’ mean win projection is 7.2 wins, which I believe is the same as San Francisco. First off, how did you arrive at the number? And secondly, how did a team that finished 13-3 last season in San Francisco end up with such a low number. And lastly, based on your projection what will it take for Seattle to surpass the seven-win mark and compete for a playoff spot this season?

 

Aaron Schatz: The mean win projections are based on a complicated process. It starts with an equation that projects each team’s quality for the season based on a number of different variables – experience, offseason roster changes, different splits and various specific stats from the past two seasons.

 

We then simulate a number of different possible results from this equation, and then use the resulting ratings to play the season over and over. In the end, what we have are one million sample seasons that give us an idea of what we can expect from each team this year – what’s likely, and what’s unlikely.

 

I’ve written a lot about the San Francisco projection this preseason, since that’s the most controversial one we’ve made. Let me see if I can run down the issues quickly.

 

– The Plexiglass Principle: Teams that make a dramatic improvement tend to decline in year three, while teams that make a dramatic fall tend to improve in year three. Since 1978, eleven teams have improved by seven or more wins from one season to the next. Not counting the 49ers, the ten other teams declined by an average of 4.7 wins the following year.

 

– Offense is more consistent than defense from season to season, and defense is more consistent than special teams. The 49ers’ success was primarily built on defense and special teams, which are more likely to regress towards the mean than a similarly strong offensive team (say, the Patriots).

 

– The 49ers were superbly healthy, especially on defense, and that’s unlikely to be the case this year; you have to assume that teams will generally have an average number of injuries each year.

 

– Alex Smith doesn’t have a track record of being an above-average quarterback. He’s been in the league seven seasons, and last year was the first time he was above average, so it is hard to believe he’ll be above average again. (Objectively, that is; subjectively, we’re big believers in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching skills.)

Stat people are going to get really fouled up in football when a genuinely good coach takes over a badly coached team.