The Cubs in April

[bukie]

Now that a whole month is in the book for the team, let's see how they've done in comparison to the league, both good and bad (there may be more bad).

 

Offense

Strengths:

1. #1 in NL in Baserunning
   
2. #5 in NL in Line Drive %
   
3. #5 in NL in Infield Hits
   

 

Weaknesses:

1. #14 in NL in Walk Rate
   
2. #15 in NL in Isolated Power
   
3. #16 in NL in Overall Batting Value
   
4. #16 in NL in O-Swing according to Pitch F/X (swinging at pitches out of the strike zone)
   

 

So they swing at bad pitches, don't hit for power, and don't take walks, which combines to give them the worst batting value in the NL. But they are excellent at hitting line drives and getting infield hits, and then add value on the basepaths.

 

Pitching

Strengths:

1. #3 in NL in Starters WAR
   
2. #5 in NL Overall Starting Value
   
3. #6 in NL in Starters xFIP
   
4. #5 in NL in Starters K/9
   
5. #1 in NL in Starters O-Swing% (getting opposing hitters to chase pitches)
   

 

Weaknesses:

1. #15 in NL in Relievers WAR
   
2. #15 in NL in Relievers K/9
   
3. #16 in NL in Relievers BB/9
   
4. #16 in NL in Relievers xFIP
   
5. #16 in NL in Relievers O-Swing% (getting opposing hitters to chase pitches)
   
6. #16 in NL in Relievers Contact% (percentage of contact when opposing hitters swing)
   
7. #16 in NL in Overall Reliever Value
   

 

So, starters good, relievers bad, mostly. The entire staff is issuing too many walks overall, and they aren't striking enough players out to make up for it. Relievers simply aren't missing bats and are missing the zone far too often. The scary thing is that it's been better the past week, and they're still dead last.

 

EDIT: I suppose I should mention defense as well. I'm not sure I trust defensive metrics as far as I can throw them, but the Cubs currently rate about average defensively overall, with excellent range rating but well below average arm and double play rate. Take it for what it's worth.

[Clem Fandango]

Those bullpen numbers make me wanna vomit

[bukie]

There have only been two relievers on the Cubs that have missed bats at an above average rate in the first month: Kerry Wood and Scott Maine. Russell is the other reliever with a decent K rate. The worst Cub relievers by peripheral stats to this point have been Marmol and Dolis (Dolis has a K/BB of about 0.25).

 

Dolis's problem is similar to Samardzija's a couple years back in that he's just not missing any bats. When players swing, they make contact against him. Marmol's problem is a complete inability to command the strike zone.

 

EDIT: Interestingly, the least valuable pitch of any Cub reliever to this point (excepting Lopez who's not on the team now)? Marmol's slider.

[Backtobanks]

Those bullpen numbers make me wanna vomit

 

Thank God their offensive power numbers can counteract the bullpen numbers. :lol:

[Clem Fandango]

Those bullpen numbers make me wanna vomit

 

Thank God their offensive power numbers can counteract the bullpen numbers. :lol:

 

Anyone who expected this Cubs team to be an offensive juggernaut is foolish. Those numbers are not a disappointment/surprise. The bullpen has been worse than expected, IMO. It was never considered great, but I didn't think it would've been this bad.

[champaignchris]

I think it's a good sign that the Cubs' baserunning has improved so dramatically. I think that's a reflection on the coaching because I don't think we're a markedly faster team. It was so gawdawful last year. It wasn't just the (lack of) stolen bases and boneheaded plays. There was a BP article from last year that showed how the Cubs were the worst in the league at scoring from second on a base hit.

 

What's amazing about the Cubs' offense this year is that they are just below league average in runs scored while essentially getting no production at all out of Soriano, Soto, and Stewart (and Byrd before he was shipped) and only Lahair is hitting above expectations. I'm not sure how to account for that. They seem to be scoring more runs than the peripherals would seem to indicate. It can't all be the better baserunning. That said, Lahair eventually regressing back to the mean should be more than made up for by Soriano, Soto, and Stewart eventually producing more like what their career norms would indicate (or being replaced by someone who can at least give replacement value numbers).

 

The OP didn't post any fielding stats, but to my eyes it seems better than last year. I don't have any stats to back that up though.

[bcl412]

I'm not so sure Stewart will produce much more than he has. He's improved over last year as it is, and I could see Soriano being pretty much done (though I'm not willing to declare it after a month.). Soto should improve though.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not so sure Stewart will produce much more than he has. He's improved over last year as it is, and I could see Soriano being pretty much done (though I'm not willing to declare it after a month.). Soto should improve though.

 

Stewart's LD% is higher than his BABIP

[bukie]

I'm not so sure Stewart will produce much more than he has. He's improved over last year as it is, and I could see Soriano being pretty much done (though I'm not willing to declare it after a month.). Soto should improve though.

Of the three, actually, given peripheral stats, Stewart is the most likely candidate to improve.

[Backtobanks]

Those bullpen numbers make me wanna vomit

 

Thank God their offensive power numbers can counteract the bullpen numbers. :lol:

 

Anyone who expected this Cubs team to be an offensive juggernaut is foolish. Those numbers are not a disappointment/surprise. The bullpen has been worse than expected, IMO. It was never considered great, but I didn't think it would've been this bad.

 

Nobody expected an "offensive juggernaut", but 9 HRs in April is a joke. As for the bullpen, how could anybody be surprised when the 3 best relievers were traded, in the rotation, and on the DL. Marmol is what he is - unhittable one outing and horrible the next.

[champaignchris]

The Cubs' first 28 games can be neatly divided in half...

 

First fourteen games:

3-11

50 runs scored

76 runs given up

 

Last fourteen games:

8-6

48 runs scored

44 runs given up