2012 BA Prospect Hot Sheets

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Week 12 | June 29, 2012: Matt Szczur is #1 on BA's Hot Sheet AND Jeimer Candelario gets some love too:

 

No. 1 MATT SZCZUR, CF CUBS

Team: high Class A Daytona (Florida State)

Age: 22

Why He's Here: .478/.600/.696 (11-for-23), 2 2B, 1 HR, 7 R, 7 RBIs, 7 BB, 2 SO, 7-for-8 SB

The Scoop: Szczur entered the year as a breakout candidate after wearing down from his baseball/football grind in the second half of last season. He recently missed 19 games due to a knee injury that kept him from playing in the Florida State League all-star game, but he has made up for lost time this past week, splitting his time between center field and DH as a precaution. The injury didn't seem to affect Szczur's plus-plus speed, as he swiped seven bases in eight attempts.

 

Before the injury, Szczur led the FSL in runs, stolen bases and on-base percentage. On Wednesday, he came within a triple of hitting for the cycle, when he went 4-for-6 with a homer, a double, four RBIs and two runs scored. Perhaps the most refreshing development for Szczur this year has been has improved plate discipline, as his walk percentage has dramatically increased from 5.4 percent last year to 12.5 percent this year. An extraordinary athlete, Szczur looks like he's starting to combine his raw tools with performance and could see a promotion to Double-A Tennessee soon enough.

 

HELIUM WATCH

 

• Jeimer Candelario, 3b, Cubs. Chicago skipped the 18-year-old Candelario, a standout in last year's Dominican Summer League, past the Arizona League to short-season Boise, and they've had no regrets through the first two weeks. The switch-hitter homered in three straight games from June 20-22 and leads the Northwest League with four bombs. Candelario has batted .314/.364/.569 through 51 at-bats, showcasing plenty of bat speed to go with plus pitch-recognition skills.

[toonsterwu]

Crap ... it's hot sheet again? Meant to get in some questions.

 

Nice to see Szczur's nice run getting recognized. He really should be in AA and getting primed for a potential big league look in late 2013.

[toonsterwu]

Hmm ... interesting question in the Q&A with JJ Cooper.

 

Tommy (Virginia): Brett Jackson has above average tools. He has bat speed, a decent approach at the plate. He's not noted as a wild hacker. He's showing enough power that he should have enough power as a left fielder, but defensively, should be fine in CF for a few years. Bat speed is supposedly fine. So ... what exactly is his problem? Is it mechanics? There's reports of holes in his swing, but it doesn't sound major. Is it breaking balls? It's not like he can't recognize spin, though. Sveum noted recently that he had trouble with hard stuff earlier in the year, and was having problems with soft stuff. He's not a bad player, but it's just an ... odd package. Any ideas as to what his issues are?

 

 

J.J. Cooper: One of the things that I've heard is that he takes a whole lot of pitches, and he's yet to realize that he doesn't have the bat control and hand-eye to handle getting into two strike counts over and over while trying to work pitchers for the pitch he's looking for.

 

So ... Brett Jackson's too patient for his skillset? That's ... interesting.

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Other hot sheet questions:

 

Al (NYC): Just noticed that the BA Prospect Report that had Javier Baez 11 for 11 in SBs in his first 24 games this year. Speed has never been mentioned as a strength for him. Is this just a case of the league not being terribly good at holding/throwing out runners, or are the SBs something that we can expect out of his game in the future?

 

J.J. Cooper: A little of both. Clearly he has some aptitude for stealing bases, but at the same time, Midwest League pitchers are often just learning how to speed up their deliveries, so you'll see a number of 1.5-second and slower guys where the bag is just there for the taking.

 

Hunter (VA): Gerardo Concepcion - buy or sell the Cubs arguing that he'd dominate A ball if they simply let him go with his secondary stuff (reportedly, he's "working on his fastball").

 

J.J. Cooper: Sell...Sell...Sell...Actually if you read Ben Badler's reports here at Baseball America you probably never bought him to begin with.

 

Michael (NW IN): When will Josh Vitters get some recognition for what he's done this year? He's finally turning the page and made the AAA All-Star team. He's been raking the past month, but never even a mention on here?

 

J.J. Cooper: It was a good week, but not a blow you away must be on the Hot Sheet week. But we do have a feature on Vitters planned that will run in the near future.

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Week 14 | July 13, 2012: Javier Baez is #2, Arismendy Alcantara gets into the team photo:

 

No. 2 JAVIER BAEZ, SS CUBS

Team: low Class A Peoria (Midwest)

Age: 19

Why He's Here: .435/.435/.870 (10-for-23), 1 2B, 3 HR, 5 R, 3 RBIs, 0 BB, 3 SO, 2-2 SB

The Scoop: The Cubs passed over several college arms to draft Baez with the ninth overall pick in 2011, and he has not disappointed in his first full season as a pro. Batting .308/.374/.526 with seven homers through 37 games, the Puerto Rico-born shortstop has hit safely in each of his last eight games and has homered in two of his last three. Despite just average speed, he has also stolen 14 bags this season. With bat speed that has prompted comparisons with Gary Sheffield and Hanley Ramirez, Baez has tremendous upside and could move quickly through the minors, especially if he continues to produce like has at the plate

 

While Anthony Rizzo was bashing his way to Chicago, SS Arismendy Alcantara's excellent season for high Class A Daytona may be an even more promising development. After all, Rizzo's power surge isn't much of a surprise, but Alcantara's emergence as a rangy shortstop who can hit is a very pleasant surprise for the Cubs. The 20-year-old hit .400/.500/.850 this week and is slugging a very respectable .447 this season while swiping 25 bags in 29 tries in the Florida State League.

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Ensuing chat:

 

Ben (Leland Grove): Could you rank these Cubs prospects for us in terms of potential - Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, Albert Almora? Thanks.

 

Matthew Eddy: Cubs fans really must be excited by the hot start of Javier Baez in a difficult Midwest League setting, and while I hate to automatically side with the shiny new toy, I think I'd gamble on Almora as the best bet of the bunch. True up-the-middle profile as a CF with significant offensive upside. The separator might be the plus makeup to grind through a difficult five-month season and endure the inevitable failings.

 

Andrew (Chicago): I am really intrigued by Arsimendy Alcantara, he seems to have come out of nowhere. Does he project to stay at SS? and is he making a case for the Cubs top 10?

 

Matthew Eddy: Yes, Alcantara is a legit SS pop-up prospect. Coming into the season, scouts regarded his best tools as his speed, arm and fielding range/consistency, so adding any sort of offense to his credentials boosts his stock considerably. Now he looks like at worst a switch-hitting utility player.

 

Pat (Wisco): Who has the most legitimate shoot of prying Garza away from the Cubs and what prospects do you think they recieve in return?

 

Matthew Eddy: If the Cubs could stomach dealing Garza to a division rival, then the Cardinals make a fair amount of sense. St. Louis has a strong offense, an acute need for another starter following injuries to Carpenter and Jaime Garcia, and the type of pitcher-friendly ballpark where a flyballer like Garza could thrive. Plus the Cardinals have enough prospect depth at the upper levels to get a deal done.

 

Tim (Sarasota): Javier Baez or Alen Hanson?

 

Matthew Eddy: I would side with Baez's bat, but if Hanson can stick at shortstop he becomes very, very interesting.

[imb]

How much must he like Almora to rate him above Baez, who is just shredding the ball right now? god that's exciting

[Guest]

Week 15 | July 20, 2012: Javier Baez is #3:

 

No. 3 JAVIER BAEZ, SS CUBS

Team: Low Class A Peoria (Midwest)

Age: 19

Why He's Here: .500/.519/1.042 (12-for-24), 2 HR, 2 3B, 3 2B, 7 RBIs, 4 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3-for-5 SB

The Scoop: The Cubs held Baez back in extended spring training until Memorial Day weekend, in part because they didn't want to subject the ninth overall pick in last year's draft to the harsh early-season weather of the Midwest League. The approach has paid off so far. After crushing seven extra-base hits in six games this week, Baez is batting .338/.397/.605 with nine homers through 157 at-bats with Peoria, and his 1.002 OPS ranks second in the MWL since he joined the league on May 28.

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Ensuing chat:

 

Al (NYC): If you were running the Cubs, do you let Baez prove he cannot stay at SS before moving him off....or do you move him to 3B (or another position) now to get him as many reps there as possible? What are the reports on him defensively thus far in the MWL? Positive, negative or indifferent?

 

J.J. Cooper: Keep him at shortstop. It's not hard for a shortstop to learn how to play third base, in fact that's one of the easier transitions there is. If he eventually surprises everyone and sticks at shortstop, he's even more valuable. If not, you didn't lose anything by sticking him there til he proved you needed to move him.

 

Jason (Austin): Do you think Baez is a 30/30 type guy in the majors? Also what are the chances he sticks at SS? What is a realistic ETA for cubs fans late 2014 early 2015?

 

J.J. Cooper: No. He's not a 30 steal guy in the big leagues. You're getting way too excited about a non-speedy guy who is an aggressive runner stealing bases against low Class A pitchers and catchers. He's an average runner who knows how to swipe a bag when a pitcher is slow to the plate.

 

JF (Nocal): How fast can you see Baez moving with his premium bat? Will his defense be the thing holding him back for a few years?

 

J.J. Cooper: I don't think the glove will really hold him back. If he keeps hitting like he's hit, the Cubs are likely to move him up as his bat shows it's ready for the next level. If at some point that means he has to move to an easier position defensively, they'll likely make that move as well.

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Week 16 | July 27, 2012: Junior Lake is #11 and Josh Vitters makes the Team Photo:

 

JUNIOR LAKE, SS

CUBS

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Chicago)     

Age: 22

Why He's Here: .400/.438/.800 (12-for-30) 6 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBIs, 1 BB, 7 SO, 2-for-2 SB

The Scoop: Lake missed all of April recovering from a back injury and his power was slow to return. He hit four homers in his first two months, but he nearly matched that total this week by crushing three bombs. This hot week has pushed his season line to .290/.341/.430, an above-average line in the Southern League. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound Lake primarily played shortstop in the lower minors, but with one of the strongest arms in the minors he's played about a third of his games at third base this season.

 

IN THE TEAM PHOTO:

 

It's been a big year for Cubs 3B Josh Vitters. After seemingly being stuck in neutral for two years, the third overall pick in the 2007 draft has put together his best year since low Class A. The 22-year-old Vitters is walking more, hitting for more power and continuing to hit for average. This week he hit .379/.419/.759 (11-for-29) with two home runs and 11 RBIs. He may not be a star in the making, but he has a decent shot at being a productive big leaguer.

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Ensuing chat:

 

trok (North Side): What kind of tools does Dan Vogelbach possess? He's already been promoted, so he must be doing some good things. Is he a 1B/DH for sure?

 

Jim Shonerd: He's 6-foot, 250 pounds, and there's no doubt first base will be his defensive home. But, his bat can carry him. He's got tremendous raw power and enough feel for hitting to put up solid averages.

 

Bolita (Illinois): Javier Baez or Xander Bogaerts? Who is the better prospect?

 

Jim Shonerd: I'll take Baez. Better chance to stay at short and scouts see the bat being a bit louder.

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Week 19 | August 10, 2012: Starling Peralta and Dan Vogelbach:

 

STARLING PERALTA, RHP CUBS

Team: low Class A Peoria (Midwest)

Age: 21

Why He's Here: 1-0, 1.29, 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 14 SO

The Scoop: It took Peralta three years in the Dominican Summer League to show the Cubs enough to earn a visa to the States. It's taken him another two years to establish himself as a legitimate prospect, but these days Peralta has proven he's one to keep an eye on. He's still somewhat inconsistent, but what was once an 89-92 mph fastball is now a 92-94 heater that tops out near 96. His slider comes and goes, but on days like Tuesday it's a plus pitch. Clinton sure couldn't hit it, and Peralta put together one of the biggest strikeout nights (14) we've seen this year. His previous career high was eight.

 

DAN VOGELBACH, 1B CUBS

Team: short-season Boise (Northwest)

Age: 19

Why He's Here: .333/.429/1.000 (8-for-24), 6 R, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 7 SO

The Scoop: Scouts said Vogelbach's bat would have to carry him, and so far it has—and in a big way. The ultra-stout Vogelbach went deep in four straight games, including a pair of solo blasts last night against Everett to run his yearly total to 13 in just 39 games. (Note that he spent his first 24 games in the Rookie-level Arizona League.) He also has 32 extra-base hits in 161 at-bats this year, good for a rate of one every five at-bats. Possessing plus-plus raw power to all fields, Vogelbach has shred 30 pounds since high school and has proven he's ready to handle full-season ball next year. 

[ctcf]

Very exciting stuff from both pieces.

 

Isn't that report on Peralta's speed contrary to what KG said recently? It's certainly very encouraging if that's what he's throwing these days.

 

Nice to see the weight loss on Vogelbach's part.

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The ensuing chat:

 

Itto (PR): Will Don Vogelbach be a BA top 100 player at the end of the year?

 

J.J. Cooper: Probably not. He's a power-hitting first baseman who has yet to play full-season ball. The margin for error on those kind of guys is pretty small because of the lack of position versatility. I like Vogelbach as a prospect, but he's likely to have to do it at higher levels to crack the Top 100.

 

bk (Hong kong): I'm a bit confused on Vogelbach's weight. you mentioned in this week's hot prospects that he's lost 30lbs since high school. he's listed at 240lbs in the 2011 Draft profile. his BA player card has him at 250lbs. how much does he weigh?

 

J.J. Cooper: I haven't heard an exact weight on him recently, and do know that those weights comes from the official statistician, but often teams don't update them often (for example, Gregory Polanco is still listed at the same 170 he was when he came to the States, he's at least 195-200 and probably more than that now). The best way to put it is Vogelbach is, was and always will be a big man.

 

Drew (IL): It was a pleasent surprise to see Starling Peralta put together a nice game, especially with the cubs lack of pitching depth, I know he doesn't have Ace stuff, but could he be a mid rotation type guy? and how does he rank compared to other Cubs pitching prospects?

 

J.J. Cooper: He still has a long ways to go with consistency, but the stuff is there that when he has his slider, he can be a solid prospect. I think he's more of a 20-30 guy in the system right now, but he's taken some nice strides.

[toonsterwu]

You know ... why can't Starling Peralta have TOR potential (not ace mind you, just TOR). With a plus fastball, if he can harness the slider and have it be plus ... well ... that's potentially more than a mid-rotation arm.

 

Granted, there's a lot of work to do with the consistency of the slider, and the change has to get better ... but reading that last question, I'm not sure we should limit his ceiling to mid-rotation right now. It's certainly possible he goes the way of Alberto Cabrera, but speaking on potential, I think there's a chance that his ceiling could be higher.

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Week 20 | August 17, 2012: Albert Almora's turn:

 

No. 7 ALBERT ALMORA, CF CUBS

Team: Short-season Boise (Northwest) / Rookie-level Arizona League

Age: 18

Why He's Here: .536/.516/.786 (15-for-28), 8 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1-for-2 SB

The Scoop: Almora spent his first three weeks in the Arizona League, where the sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft came as advertised. Upon his promotion to the Northwest League, Almora homered in his first game with Boise on Wednesday. It's been an auspicious debut for Almora, who has hit .353/.367/.518 in 20 games between the two levels. If there is such thing as a stacked short-season lineup, it has to be Boise, where the Hawks now have Almora, first baseman Dan Vogelbach, third baseman Jeimer Candelario and second baseman Gioskar Amaya. The best of the group, though, is Almora, whose feel for hitting is beyond his years.

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Week 22 | August 31, 2012 - Final Hot Sheet of the year:

 

JAE-HOON HA, CF CUBS

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 21

Why He's Here: .423/.423/.731 (11-for-26), 3 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: While many players tend to fade down the stretch during a long, hot summer, Ha has steadily improved. He hit .300/.398/.429 in July and has been on fire so far in August, batting .316/.422/.500 for the month. A catcher as an amateur, Ha has turned himself into a fine defensive outfielder and did his damage this week while spending time at all three outfield positions.

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Ensuing chat:

 

Itto (Aguadilla PR): Do you think that Jorge Soler could start the 2013 in AA Tennessee with a Sept call up to the majors?

 

Ben Badler: A Florida State League assignment is more likely. The Cubs know they're probably not going to contend next year, so there's really no reason to rush him to Chicago.

 

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): With Rizzo the future at 1B in Chicago, what do the Cubbies do with Vogelbach? Can he play anywhere else? That's a big power bat to have to give up.

 

Ben Badler: He's in Boise, so they don't have to worry about that for at least a few years. Vogelbach is getting great reviews this year, but that's not a body you want anywhere other than first base or the batter's box.