Minor League Discussion & Boxes 9-11-11

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Score

 

Daytona won 4-2 Box Score, capping off a 3 game sweep for the FSL Championship

 

3B M. Cerda 1/5, R, K

DH G. Rohan 3/5, 2B (1), RBI, K

1B J. Bour 2/5, 2B (1), RBI, K

CF M. Szczur 1/2, R, 2 BB

SS E. Soto 2/4

2B L. Watkins 2/3, RBI

SP DE Rhee 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, WP, 5-7 GO-FO

RP A. Kurcz 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 1-1 GO-FO

RP F. Batista 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, 3-0 GO-FO

[Little Slide Rooter]

D Cubs up 4-2 going into the bottom of the 7th. Kurcz just relieved Rhee who went 6 giving up 2 ER on 4 H with 3/5 BB/K.

[sandbergcubs]

CUBS WIN!!! Now to get Tennessee a championship and then promote them all to Chicago!!

[CubsWin]

Congrats D-Cubs on winning the 2011 FSL Championship in decisive fashion.

[toonsterwu]

I'm going to be mildly curious how Greg Rohan does next year. Considering his age, performance this year, and versatility, I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be given a chance to start in AA. If Vitters is up in AAA, Rohan can split time at 3rd with Matt Cerda, get time a first with Justin Bour (who I'm assuming will go to AA), and get some corner OF time. Still feels likely that his best case is versatile corner backup, but he probably deserves a chance to prove folks wrong.

 

I really want to love Frank Batista. I've seen him when he had a slider working, and the K's were coming. He can get ground balls. Still ... something feels missing in terms of him having late inning potential. Nothing wrong with a possible middle reliever. Just feel like he has the potential for more.

 

Kurcz was more the setup man to Batista (probably more due to the fact that Kurcz started the year as a starter, and Bailey probably was comfortable with Frank), but there should be little doubt who has the higher ceiling, and I still believe Kurcz is the best pen prospect in the system.

[Guest]

I'd say Carpenter is still the best pen prospect in the system, but he's got to get the control issues worked out. Zych is in that discussion, as well, though we'll have to see what he can do as he moves up the chain.

[sandbergcubs]

I'd say Carpenter is still the best pen prospect in the system, but he's got to get the control issues worked out. Zych is in that discussion, as well, though we'll have to see what he can do as he moves up the chain.

 

I will agree with carpenter as best pen arm in the system, although i definetely rate both Believeiu and Rhoderick above them

[toonsterwu]

Curious why you'd have Carpenter ahead of Kurcz, or is this an issue of level they are at (doesn't sound like it from the way you are phrasing it)? With Kurcz, there's two plus pitches. Carpenter's consistency on his breaking ball isn't there to call it a consistently plus pitch, IMO. Carpenter's fastball is flattening out a lot more out of the pen, probably because he goes to a 4-seamer more (although I haven't checked the numbers are asked about it). Kurcz might not get into the upper 90's like Carpenter can, but he can get it to the mid-90's and has good movement to it. Add in his significant control advantage, and I think better stuff, better control.

 

This isn't to downplay Carpenter on in anyway. I was awfully high on him last year, and probably over-rated him a tad based on viewer bias, and he could still be a good pen arm. I was fascinated with him as a starter due to the sink he'd get with his 2-seamer. I see him more as a power setup guy unless his slider becomes as good as Kurcz's, and his control takes major steps forward. Due to velo, he'll be able to reach back and blow it by some people.

 

I don't really think Zych is anywhere near Kurcz right now. We'll have to wait and see how his stuff plays in pro ball, but at Louisville, it was flat, average, tick above average fastball that had velo, and a below average slider. I'd tak Rhoderick over him, even accounting for the velo difference.

[jumbo]

Kurcz was more the setup man to Batista (probably more due to the fact that Kurcz started the year as a starter, and Bailey probably was comfortable with Frank), but there should be little doubt who has the higher ceiling, and I still believe Kurlz is the best pen prospect in the system.

 

 

Do you think there's ANY chance that Kurcz sticks as a starter? Does he have a decent third pitch to go along with his two plus pitches? Stamina? Thanks

[toonsterwu]

No, I really don't see him as a starter. I don't expect them to use him as a starter again, although I've been wrong plenty of times before. I think they just wanted him to work on his pitches, and they moved him to the pen in June.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Curious why you'd have Carpenter ahead of Kurcz, or is this an issue of level they are at (doesn't sound like it from the way you are phrasing it)? With Kurcz, there's two plus pitches. Carpenter's consistency on his breaking ball isn't there to call it a consistently plus pitch, IMO. Carpenter's fastball is flattening out a lot more out of the pen, probably because he goes to a 4-seamer more (although I haven't checked the numbers are asked about it). Kurcz might not get into the upper 90's like Carpenter can, but he can get it to the mid-90's and has good movement to it. Add in his significant control advantage, and I think better stuff, better control.

 

This isn't to downplay Carpenter on in anyway. I was awfully high on him last year, and probably over-rated him a tad based on viewer bias, and he could still be a good pen arm. I was fascinated with him as a starter due to the sink he'd get with his 2-seamer. I see him more as a power setup guy unless his slider becomes as good as Kurcz's, and his control takes major steps forward. Due to velo, he'll be able to reach back and blow it by some people.

 

I don't really think Zych is anywhere near Kurcz right now. We'll have to wait and see how his stuff plays in pro ball, but at Louisville, it was flat, average, tick above average fastball that had velo, and a below average slider. I'd tak Rhoderick over him, even accounting for the velo difference.

 

I'm in the Carpenter is the best pen arm in the system camp. I think his raw velocity is better than Kurcz by a tick, and that his breaking ball when on is arguably the best out pitch of any of the relief arms in the organization. It's not consistent yet, but it's nasty when it's there.

 

I do think Kurcz needs to be talked about more...Really good arm and he's better mechanically than most of these guys.

[toonsterwu]

Leaving aside the breaking ball for a moment, I'll get back to one of my issues with Carpenter in the pen. He was a much more dangerous pitcher, IMO, when he was throwing the 2-seamer a lot more, as he'd get whiffs and induce ground balls off of that pitch. I don't love him rearing back and going for velo. Sure, it'll blow by most people, particularly since there's limited "viewings" out of the pen, but I think he was tougher with the 2-seamer. Short of it is, I see more Kyle Farnsworth right now, effective-solid pen arm if things go well, relies on velocity and not movement (and based on his twitter comments, perhaps some maturity issues), than I do a dominant late inning arm.

 

Only time will tell.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

If the two seamer is his best fastball then it's highly unlikely any abandonment is permanent.

 

He maybe the type of arm who takes a while to click, but Carpenter IMO has legit closer upside.

[toonsterwu]

Certainly, speaking to pure upside, he has closer upside. He also had solid 2/3 rotation upside, but that never panned out. For all the excuses I made on his control problems as a starter, I think failing to recognize that the control issues have been a critical issue throughout his career, and hoping it would turn around, led to my flawed ranking last year. Stuff is good.

 

Anyhow, only time will tell. I'm far more confident in the package Kurcz offers right now (2 plus pitches, good movement on fastball, better breaking ball, and better command).

[Wrigley Rat]

Interesting debate you guys - thanks for the insight on Carpenter and Kurcz! A good read.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Certainly, speaking to pure upside, he has closer upside. He also had solid 2/3 rotation upside, but that never panned out. For all the excuses I made on his control problems as a starter, I think failing to recognize that the control issues have been a critical issue throughout his career, and hoping it would turn around, led to my flawed ranking last year. Stuff is good.

 

Anyhow, only time will tell. I'm far more confident in the package Kurcz offers right now (2 plus pitches, good movement on fastball, better breaking ball, and better command).

 

I thought the ceiling was lower due to being a little older than alot of guys in the minors and more injured history than most arms that have that kind of perceived upside. That upside only existed and was talked about because of the kind of arm he has. I like him way more as a reliever, where his ample stuff is concentrated in doses, rather than as a starter, where he's further off from the big leagues despite being 26 and it's much harder to break in and last. The stuff is more than good, it's high end. Personally, I think you underrate the breaking pitch a whole lot.

 

From what you're describing it sounds like you're letting the year by year minor league result variations cause your opinion to sway to extremes pretty easily. Also, the description of Kurcz at the bottom sounds alot like Carpenter...who also has two plus pitches and a fastball that moves very well. He (Kurcz) has the disadvantage/advantage of being less tested (lower level, nowhere near as many innings), younger, and making a smoother transition earlier...I buy that he's potentially a good, even very good pen arm, but I don't buy that he's a better prospect than Carpenter right now. That's probably just a difference in philosophy when it comes to ranking prospects...I do see some David Robertson-esque qualities in Kurcz as a young arm in the way he pitches and repeats his mechanics, but he's at least two years away and therefore just further from thought.

[Guest]

I rate relievers almost purely on upside. I see Carp as having the higher one with the extra ticks on his fastball, as well as the greater variety of fastball. I'd like to see him use both to change the eye level of the hitters more often, though, as well as refining the repeatability of the breaking ball.

 

Kurcz is right there, but I think he doesn't have quite the same ceiling.

[Guest]

I rate relievers almost purely on upside. I see Carp as having the higher one with the extra ticks on his fastball, as well as the greater variety of fastball. I'd like to see him use both to change the eye level of the hitters more often, though, as well as refining the repeatability of the breaking ball.

 

Kurcz is right there, but I think he doesn't have quite the same ceiling.

 

While Kurcz certainly doesn't have Carpenter's ceiling, he's definitely a safer bet (and still, he has a ceiling of a late inning reliever/closer).

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I rate relievers almost purely on upside. I see Carp as having the higher one with the extra ticks on his fastball, as well as the greater variety of fastball. I'd like to see him use both to change the eye level of the hitters more often, though, as well as refining the repeatability of the breaking ball.

 

Kurcz is right there, but I think he doesn't have quite the same ceiling.

 

While Kurcz certainly doesn't have Carpenter's ceiling, he's definitely a safer bet (and still, he has a ceiling of a late inning reliever/closer).

 

Disagree. It's more like his statistical profile in his short time as a minor leaguer is better than Carpenter's short time as a reliever. Carpenter has reached the big leagues as it is, which Kurcz pitched very well 2 full levels below it.

[Guest]

http://www.news-journalonline.com/sports/images/2011/09/12/cubs10912.jpg

Rhee

 

 

 

 

[TruffleShuffle]

rhee is a skinny dude

[Guest]

Wining is so awesome! Good for them.

[toonsterwu]

Certainly, speaking to pure upside, he has closer upside. He also had solid 2/3 rotation upside, but that never panned out. For all the excuses I made on his control problems as a starter, I think failing to recognize that the control issues have been a critical issue throughout his career, and hoping it would turn around, led to my flawed ranking last year. Stuff is good.

 

Anyhow, only time will tell. I'm far more confident in the package Kurcz offers right now (2 plus pitches, good movement on fastball, better breaking ball, and better command).

 

I thought the ceiling was lower due to being a little older than alot of guys in the minors and more injured history than most arms that have that kind of perceived upside. That upside only existed and was talked about because of the kind of arm he has. I like him way more as a reliever, where his ample stuff is concentrated in doses, rather than as a starter, where he's further off from the big leagues despite being 26 and it's much harder to break in and last. The stuff is more than good, it's high end. Personally, I think you underrate the breaking pitch a whole lot.

 

From what you're describing it sounds like you're letting the year by year minor league result variations cause your opinion to sway to extremes pretty easily. Also, the description of Kurcz at the bottom sounds alot like Carpenter...who also has two plus pitches and a fastball that moves very well. He (Kurcz) has the disadvantage/advantage of being less tested (lower level, nowhere near as many innings), younger, and making a smoother transition earlier...I buy that he's potentially a good, even very good pen arm, but I don't buy that he's a better prospect than Carpenter right now. That's probably just a difference in philosophy when it comes to ranking prospects...I do see some David Robertson-esque qualities in Kurcz as a young arm in the way he pitches and repeats his mechanics, but he's at least two years away and therefore just further from thought.

 

I don't feel like I'm underrating his breaking ball and I don't feel like I'm letting year to year results impact my opinion in my comments.

 

1) I said his breaking ball was good ... when on, but it's too inconsistent. I've seen both breaking balls, and my gut feeling is that Kurcz's has better movement and he's more consistent, hence why I prefer his slider to Carpenter.

 

2) I think it's fair to say that Carpenter had control issues before this year. Last year, those comments are probably around here somewhere, I kept thinking that he could eventually right the ship enough that the control issues wouldn't be as big. Even if he righted the ship from this year, and I think he will, he'd still have control problems. They just wouldn't be gigantic, but they would still exist.

 

To put it another way, and I'm doing this without actual pitch f/x data so it's visual based, which has the potential for viewer bias, but I think Kurcz's fastball has more movement than Carpenter's 4 seamer, and I think Kurcz's slider is a good notch above Carpenter's, based on what I saw this year. It's certainly possible that the same viewer bias that led me to over-rate Carpenter last year a bit is at play here, and I may be over-rating Kurcz a tad. But Kurcz's fastball this year, and I'm pretty sure he has 2 as I saw nasty vertical movement, and then he had a pitch that was almost like a cutter that darted a ton, for lack of a better word.

 

Finally, I'm not sure why people think Kurcz is so far away. If he continues his strong season next year in AA (and that's a big if, as pen arms have volatility in performance, even in the inors), he could be ready for the bigs at some point in 2012. As a side note, I don't have either guy in my top 15 for my Cubs prospects, and am only debating Kurcz in the end of my top 20, so we're really talking about marginal differences in terms of ranking/rating for me.

[toonsterwu]

rhee is a skinny dude

 

Yes he is, and hence why I was worried for a long time about his ability to work a heavy workload. But his strong run this year has assuaged some of my concerns about that.

[toonsterwu]

Okay, raisin probably phrased it much better than I did on this Carpenter/Kurcz thing. I accidentally skipped over the comment above. I can agree that if Carpenter's breaking ball was steadier and more consistent, then his ceiling is a tad higher than Kurcz. I just feel like right now, Kurcz's ceiling is close enough and his pitches are more consistent, that I would take him as the best pen arm in the system. But on upside alone, I can agree that Carpenter has slightly bigger upside (although as noted above, I think you guys are under-rating Kurcz's slider. I may be letting viewer bias impact me, but I feel like Kurcz's slider was better than Carpenter's in terms of "stuff/movement", but if Carpenter steadies his slider, then the ability to ramp it up into the upper 90's and having a 2seamer in his pocket would give him the notch in ceiling).

 

And I'll add one last thing on this, as I feel like we're all going in circles about the same issues now - If Carpenter went to his 2-seamer, and his control settled down a bit to say, a level somewhat similar to last year, then I think this would be a far different debate for me. I am just not a big fan of Carpenter rearing back and going with a 4-seamer more often. His 2-seamer was nasty when on, and I've consistently felt that way (that he was better off going with his sinking action) since reports came out from AFL last year that he was rearing back and going more with the 4-seamer out of the pen.

Edited September 14, 2011 by toonsterwu