The lineup/Clutch Hitting

[CubColtPacer]

Has this offense been as bad as it has looked so far? Here are some of their NL ranks:

 

runs scored: 12th

HR: 13th

BA: 2nd

OBP: 5th

SLG: 6th

OPS: 6th

K's: 2nd (fewest)

BB: 14th

 

So this team hasn't walked much or hit many home runs, but they have hit for average so well that their OBP, SLG, and OPS are all well above league average. Part of that is how little they strike out which allows them to carry a large average without having too crazy of a BABIP overall (.320). So why are they still 12th in runs? They haven't hit well in the clutch so far-at all:

 

Total (NL rank 6th): .273/.326/.409

Nobody on (NL rank 2nd): .305/.346/.451

Runners on (NL rank 15th): .236/.304/.346

Scoring position (NL rank 15th): .214/.302/.311

Scoring Position 2 out (NL rank 12th): .224/.333/.328

Bases Loaded (NL rank 12th): .211/.227/.368

 

Is there anything that could be causing this? Lineup construction/streaky players/any other reason or is it just random variation? And if it is random variation, should we be expecting the Cubs offense to be actually good going forward? I think most people would expect their average to go down but their number of home runs to go slightly up. Their walks should stay well below average and I have no idea what their strikeouts will do by the end of the year.

[Sammy Sofa]

Gotta think the 3-5 spots are the big reason for this given how many times you've had Byrd and Pena manning either end and Aramis hitting but mostly seeing-eye singles.

[MWV]

Gotta think the 3-5 spots are the big reason for this given how many times you've had Byrd and Pena manning either end and Aramis hitting but mostly seeing-eye singles.

Cub's 3 hole is OPSing .567. Only the 9 spot is hitting worse.

[Sammy Sofa]

Gotta think the 3-5 spots are the big reason for this given how many times you've had Byrd and Pena manning either end and Aramis hitting but mostly seeing-eye singles.

Cub's 3 hole is OPSing .567. Only the 9 spot is hitting worse.

 

Barrrrrrrrrrrrrrrfffff.

[Soul]

Having the heart of the order stinking it up also makes the team a chore to watch.

[Guest]

Having the heart of the order stinking it up also makes the team a chore to watch.

 

Yeah, my level of enthusiasm took a punch to the gut in this first month of the season.

[MWV]

2010 Batting order splits, sorted by OPS:

Split          BA   OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 6th   .277 .341 .491 .832 .330   129   122
Batting 8th   .276 .355 .428 .783 .343   118   129
Batting 7th   .259 .328 .427 .755 .302   109   116
Batting 4th   .251 .313 .440 .753 .274   108    86
Batting 5th   .268 .326 .417 .743 .308   106    92
Batting 2nd   .286 .329 .403 .731 .321   103   100
Batting 3rd   .256 .331 .390 .721 .307   101    77
Batting 1st   .251 .316 .363 .679 .287    89    91
Batting 9th   .172 .224 .241 .465 .255    30    68

2011 so far, sorted by OPS:

Split            BA  OBP  SLG   OPS  BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 1st    .421 .470 .554 1.023  .476   184   186
Batting 6th    .269 .316 .491  .807  .288   120   126
Batting 8th    .263 .342 .424  .767  .288   112   115
Batting 4th    .297 .358 .396  .754  .333   110    92
Batting 2nd    .306 .336 .413  .749  .330   107   114
Batting 5th    .255 .356 .382  .738  .324   106   103
Batting 7th    .212 .252 .394  .646  .208    76    90
Batting 3rd    .238 .262 .303  .565  .287    57    44
Batting 9th    .153 .176 .224  .401  .233    10    46

 

I compare this year to last only because it seems like last year (at least the beginning of last year) a complete lack of middle-order production torpedoed the season. I know the bullpen sucked as well (this year the starting pitching), but the 3 hole is again among the worst spots in the lineup. Meanwhile, the 6 and 7 spots are the only ones consistently above league average. The fact that the 1 spot and 2 spots look better this year is due to Starlin, Barney and Fukudome having hot starts (i.e. a .476 BAbip in the leadoff slot).

So how much of this problem is lineup construction, how much is personnel related, and how much is bad luck? Several new players, a new manager, and similarly frustrating results.

I realize this isn't a very well constructed post, but whatever. The beginnings of the last two seasons have been pretty tough to watch. Thoughts?