BA's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

[davell]

I'd still put Antigua in the "possible" list for somewhere in their top 30 personally. He didn't have a BAD year and was definitely young for his level.

 

The comments on Szczur were phenomenal. Definitely lends some credence to the Crawford comps anyway. It's really going to sting if he chooses NFL over the Cubs. If he's a mid-round NFL pick, he's going to likely get a 3 year deal(depending on labor issues being resolved) and he'll make over a mill in that time frame. Maybe he has a great start in Peoria and we up the ante for him, if it appears he's going to give the NFL a shot?

[craig]

I'd still put Antigua in the "possible" list for somewhere in their top 30 personally. He didn't have a BAD year and was definitely young for his level.

...

 

In chat, Callis said "I had trouble squeezing lefties onto the Top 30. I got Brooks Raley on there but left Rusin and Kirk off. They'll all close, as are Jeffry Antigua and Cameron Greathouse." Elsewhere he also mentioned liking but not being able to include Belivieu. 



 

If I was sure Antigua's arm was healthy, I'd personally have him in my top 30. But when he had a couple of DL's with arm trouble (I think shoulder) this summer, that's an added concern. His other red flag this summer was the high HR's, although perhaps pitching with a sore arm might have contributed and if he's healthy perhaps that won't be a persistent problem.

 

But if I was sure he's healthy, I'd take him pretty seriously and definitely have him in top 30.

[davell]

Yeah, the Cubs have a bunch of solid lefties and it kind of makes them hard to differentiate, I suppose. I think I'm on my own island though, when it comes to putting Rusin in my top 10. :D

[toonsterwu]

For every young hitter, the question of future HR power is central. Other than the negative comment on Ha's power (15-HR max), I very much liked some of the comments on other guys:

 

Lemahieu: Cubs think Lemahieu could adjust and hit 15 per, that's terrific. Very encouraging. If he did that, and played 2B, with his contact/average skills, you'd have a great value. Likely, maybe not, but nice to think there's at least a chance. And with his contact skills, I think 15-HR power could support 3B too.

 

Szczur: Talk about hitting 400-foot bombs and having average-to-better power with great hitting/contact skills, that's WOW encouraging. HR's need power and contact. If the power is average or better and the contact is really good, look out.

 

Lee: "has the bat speed and strength in his hands to hit for some power once he develops". That's really encouraging too. He doesn't need to hit 15, but if he could hit 8-12 and keep the OFers honest, that's really encouraging.

 

Cerda: "I think he fits best at third base, and he may not have enough power for the position." If it's even in question that he might almost remotely have some power to keep 3B in consideration, that would suggest that he's not Theriot light. Maybe 8-15 HR potential? A good contact hitter with 8-15 HR potential could be a very good utility or 2B bat. (Wasn't

 

Golden: "I've had multiple scouts compare him to a young Kevin Mitchell. He has plus-plus raw power." That is awfully encouraging, too. Kevin Mitchell hit 47 and 35 HR's at ages 27 and 28 for the Giants, so we're talking serious corner OF/middle-lineup power potential. Very encouraging.

 

Intriguing comments. I still have my doubts on LeMahieu and power ... but if he can hit 15 AND maintain his contact ability, then he could stick at 3rd.

 

I did not know Szczur had that level of power. I really hope the Cubs up their offer to him a bit. I get the feeling, from everything I understand, that he's headed for the NFL.

 

Nate was rather positive on Cerda's ability to play 2nd. I really, really hope that Cerda can play 2nd.

 

Interesting that Golden's power is plus-plus, but Brett get best power. Goes to show that they are talking about "playing power".

[Guest]

I'd still put Antigua in the "possible" list for somewhere in their top 30 personally. He didn't have a BAD year and was definitely young for his level.

...

 

In chat, Callis said "I had trouble squeezing lefties onto the Top 30. I got Brooks Raley on there but left Rusin and Kirk off. They'll all close, as are Jeffry Antigua and Cameron Greathouse." Elsewhere he also mentioned liking but not being able to include Belivieu. 



 

If I was sure Antigua's arm was healthy, I'd personally have him in my top 30. But when he had a couple of DL's with arm trouble (I think shoulder) this summer, that's an added concern. His other red flag this summer was the high HR's, although perhaps pitching with a sore arm might have contributed and if he's healthy perhaps that won't be a persistent problem.

 

But if I was sure he's healthy, I'd take him pretty seriously and definitely have him in top 30.

 

Sorry, I knew I forgot someone on my list of guys who didn't make the cut. So no Antigua or Greathouse in the top 30 either.

[toonsterwu]

Excellent question, interesting reply:

 

Bob (Mundelein, IL): Do you think that guys like Ben Wells, Austin Reed, Aaron Kurcz, or Cam Greathouse will start in Peoria next year? Who is the top pitcher (besides Simpson) to keep an eye on in the lower levels of the organization?

 

 

Jim Callis: Wells hasn't faced the competition the other guys have, so it's possible he could make his pro debut at short-season Boise, but I think the other three will open the year in Peoria. Actually, Kurcz is advanced enough that he might skip a level and head to high Class A Daytona. All of those guys are very interesting, but the best young pitcher to watch may be Robinson Lopez, who was part of the Derrek Lee trade with the Braves. The Cubs do a great job extracting value when dealing veterans, and Lopez touched 97 mph at times last year.

 

The one thing that this system has is solid pitching depth. We're going to have very intriguing rotations at almost every level of the system, including XST/shortseason (where I expect Hartman and Richardson to be).

 

I do hope Wells gets to full season ball next year.

[toonsterwu]

Holy crap. In the chat, Callis said the Cubs will have the 8th best farm system when BA publishes their rankings.

 

This is the most surprising thing I've taken away from the BA stuff. I'm surprised by Szczur and Dolis, but there are cases for both. 8th? I know the farm systems are rather bunched this year, but there's enough upper tier guys to garner 8th? Surprised me, that's for sure (and the idea that we would be competing for the 2nd best system behind the Royals had Cashner and Castro qualified ... ). This feels like they are saying that Archer and/or B. Jackson are elite prospects, because I don't know how a system ranks that high without one or two elite prospects. To be fair, their writeup on Archer makes him sound elite.

[Guest]

None of Kirk, Beliveau, or Rusin made the top THIRTY? That almost seems impossible.

[toonsterwu]

Interesting:

 

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Of last years top 30 prospect group, who has jumped up the most notches and who has dropped the most spots down in this years group?

 

 

Jim Callis: Archer moved up 14 spots from No. 15 to No. 1, while McNutt rose 13 spots from No. 16 to No. 3. Chirinos and Castillo both improved 10 spots from Nos. 26 and 27 to Nos. 16 and 17. (Guyer came from off the 2010 list to No. 10 this year.) In the other direction, Kyler Burke (was No. 11) and John Gaub (was No. 14) fell totally off the list. Watkins went from No. 7 to No. 21 and Flaherty went from No. 9 to No. 22. Remember, our list ultimately reflects Baseball America's opinion and not necessarily that of the Cubs.

 

I'm just not sure how Logan Watkins is still in the top 30. I thought the same way last year when many had Junior Lake still up there, so here's hoping Logan proves me wrong. For a guy with minimal power, he strikes out a lot. He seems like a useful IF/OF type backup that offers some speed.

[toonsterwu]

For those like me who aren't BA subscribers, any tidbits from the chat would be much appreciated.

 

For example, what did they say about Dallas Beeler? Will he be on the top-30?

 

I know Az Phil liked him, too.

 

Dan (Lansing): What can you tell me about Dallas Beeler?

 

 

Jim Callis: Another good sleeper from the 2010 draft. Had Tommy John surgery at Oral Roberts, throwing 92-95 again and also showing a promising slider.

 

If Beeler is really throwing in the mid-90's already (I thought he was more low 90's, occasionally touching mid-90's) ... then I'll be very curious next year. Heard the changeup was fairly solid, IIRC, and he has a good feel to pitching. If that's the case ... did they mine another late round sleeper?

 

Granted, at some point, I'd like positional depth ... but it's nice to talk about a deep pitching system. This is the best our system's pitching has been since 03 probably (here's hoping more of these guys pan out, though).

[toonsterwu]

bubblesdachimp (DC): Do the Cubs have the best farm system in the NL central right now?

 

 

Jim Callis: Neck and neck with the Reds.

 

I'm guessing that the Pirates top heavy system just lacks the depth, because otherwise, in terms of elite talent, I doubt anyone has a trio that can really match up with Taillon, Allie, and Heredia. Of course, all three are so far away and so raw, that certainly factors in.

 

I can't say I really love the Reds system right now. Aroldis is great ... but I feel like he's a pen arm. I feel like the hype on Billy Hamilton is a bit ridiculous. Don't love Mesoraco just yet (I saw Devin a few times early in 2010 ... it sounded like he had a strong summer so maybe he's improved a lot).

[toonsterwu]

A few from the chat:

 

Don (Rosemont, IL): What are your thoughts on Jae-Hoon Ha? I was impressed with his hitting ability last year, though I wasn't sure about what type of power he could realistically have or which outfield position he would fit best at.

 

Jim Callis: Another guy I want to see more of. I got mixed reviews on him when I was working on our Midwest League coverage, but he did hit .317/.334/.468 in a tough hitter's league, playing in low Class A as a 19-year-old. He's more of a high-average, gap-power, 15-homer-max type of guy than a slugger. One club official told me he had the most competitive at-bats of any Cubs farmhand last year. He's a good corner outfielder who can fill in in center as needed.

 

They make Ha's best case sound like Brandon Guyer, which isn't bad, but it felt like some folks loved him a lot more than that.

[craig]

Intriguing comments. I still have my doubts on LeMahieu and power ... but if he can hit 15 AND maintain his contact ability, then he could stick at 3rd.

 

"Everyone agrees that he can hit, and he's the best pure hitter in the system. But while the Cubs think he has a chance to play second base and make some adjustments to hit 15 homers per year, scouts outside the organization don't think he has the quickness to play second or the power for third." Jim Callis

 

Your doubts are well taken, toonster. If he's a 3-HR guy, he's not going to be a good 3B. But if swinging for a modest 10-15 HR's turns him into a .250 hitter, that's bad too. Or if he needs to bulk up to become a 10-15 HR guy, and ends up with 1B/LF mobility. Pretty much for him to turn into a quality starting infielder, he'll need to turn into 10+ HR power AND maintain the .300-type batting average. Likely no, but I'm encouraged that at least the Cubs still think it's possible. Even if an extra dozen HR's did cost him some K's, the batting average won't suffer if an extra 30 K's is offset by an extra dozen HR hits. So I'm modestly hopeful that developing modest HR-production may not kill his batting average, which at present is the only thing he's notably good at. Chancy enough to keep him in top 20.

 

I did not know Szczur had that level of power. I really hope the Cubs up their offer to him a bit. I get the feeling, from everything I understand, that he's headed for the NFL.

 

"it's his hitting skills that could make him a special player. Chicago marvels at his knack for barreling balls, and combined with his top-of-the-scale speed he should hit for high averages. He hits 400-foot bombs in batting practice, and once he gets more coaching and learns to finish through the ball better, he could have average or better power."

 

Nate was rather positive on Cerda's ability to play 2nd. I really, really hope that Cerda can play 2nd.

 

Interesting that Golden's power is plus-plus, but Brett get best power. Goes to show that they are talking about "playing power".

 

"

Jim Callis: That would be most usable power. Vitters and Golden might have more raw power, but as of now, I'd bet that Jackson will hit the most homers in the big leagues. Jackson's raw power is nothing to scoff at either."

[Guest]

Interesting:

 

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Of last years top 30 prospect group, who has jumped up the most notches and who has dropped the most spots down in this years group?

 

 

Jim Callis: Archer moved up 14 spots from No. 15 to No. 1, while McNutt rose 13 spots from No. 16 to No. 3. Chirinos and Castillo both improved 10 spots from Nos. 26 and 27 to Nos. 16 and 17. (Guyer came from off the 2010 list to No. 10 this year.) In the other direction, Kyler Burke (was No. 11) and John Gaub (was No. 14) fell totally off the list. Watkins went from No. 7 to No. 21 and Flaherty went from No. 9 to No. 22. Remember, our list ultimately reflects Baseball America's opinion and not necessarily that of the Cubs.

 

I'm just not sure how Logan Watkins is still in the top 30. I thought the same way last year when many had Junior Lake still up there, so here's hoping Logan proves me wrong. For a guy with minimal power, he strikes out a lot. He seems like a useful IF/OF type backup that offers some speed.

 

I agree. I also thought BA overrated Watkins last year.

[toonsterwu]

Which guys outside of the top ten have been basically numbered, from the chat?

 

A post said they had Chirinos and Castillo at 16-17, and Watkins/Flaherty at 21-22. (I'm shocked that Watkins is still that high. Whatever for, I wonder?)

 

Who else kind of got pegged, whether with exact number of in ballpark area?

 

On Bruce Miles's blog, http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/5035#comments

 

a poster copied in basically all of the top ten writeups. The Szczur writeup is really Wow.

 

If he's really all that, I think they're going to be willing to offer more than the standing $0.5 to keep him.

 

Alberto Cabrera - 11

Robinson Chirinos - 16

Welington Castillo - 17

Logan Watkins - 21

Ryan Flaherty - 22

Matt Cerda - 31

 

Not in top 30:

 

Jeff Beliveau (just missed)

Micah Gibbs

Chris Rusin (close to the top 30)

Austin Kirk (close to the top 30)

Evan Crawford

 

The one that really surprises me is Chris Rusin missing. He was so polished and so productive, I thought he would make it. Speaks to his low ceiling, I guess, but ... Logan Watkins over Rusin? Don't see it right now, unless they feel Rusin is more JR Mathes, but I hadn't heard anyone suggest that Rusin was a system arm.

 

Out of curiosity, did they specifically mention Evan Crawford for some reason?

[toonsterwu]

None of Kirk, Beliveau, or Rusin made the top THIRTY? That almost seems impossible.

 

Not really surprised with Beliveau and Kirk, the former because he's a pen arm, the latter because I think we're all sort of waiting to see how his stuff shows in full-season. I don't think Kirk was on everyone's top 30 list.

 

Rusin not making it is a bit surprising, though.

[toonsterwu]

 

 

"

Jim Callis: That would be most usable power. Vitters and Golden might have more raw power, but as of now, I'd bet that Jackson will hit the most homers in the big leagues. Jackson's raw power is nothing to scoff at either."

 

I've been trying to make this point over at Sickels in the CPL for awhile. We can comfortably project (and yes, it's still a projection) 20-25 HR power from Brett right now. Say he cuts down on his K's a bit without reworking his swing (not impossible, Brett isn't a hacker and is viewed as having a solid approach at the plate, so the K's declining to closer to 20% seems plausible). That might help things out a bit on the power front.

 

The reports on his defense have been mixed all year (nothing bad ... but ranging from decent to good). Say the Cubs decide to go with someone else as a CF (as I've noted elsewhere, if the Cubs feel like Starlin "owns" SS in a year or two, I'd love to see them ponder Lee in CF). Moving Brett to a corner role and letting him bulk up a bit might help his power out.

 

I think his power ceiling could be higher than what we are projecting. Of course, few players reach their ceilings, and few reach them for a good stretch of time. I don't think it's out of the question that we'll see Brett pop 25-30 HR's once or twice in his career (assuming positive development), particularly in his late 20's/early 30's, when he may have to move to a corner role.

[craig]

None of Kirk, Beliveau, or Rusin made the top THIRTY? That almost seems impossible.

 

Yeah, I was trying to figure out how they were filling the top 30 without any of those guys, too.

 

At present we know the top ten, Cerda at 31, five others of the 2nd and 3rd ten exactly. (Cabrera 11, Chirinos/Castillo 16/17, Watkins/Flaherty 21/22),

 

That leaves 15 guys. He mentioned:

Raley

Lemahieu (he didn't fall as far as Flaherty did, so he's in 2nd ten somewhere)

Jay Jackson (he was mentioned, and didn't fall as far as Flaherty, so he's in 2nd ten somewhere)Golden (something to the effect that he's around 20 or so)

 

That would leave 11 more. Several he didn't mention as on the list, but in favorable enough terms so that they must certainly be:

Robinson Lopez (mentioned him touching 97, being great value for Lee, and perhaps being the most interesting A-ball pitcher)

Kurcz. (mentioned as possibly jumping to Daytona, and being one of the top A-ball guys to watch)

Lake. Gotta be in there somewhere.

Ben Wells.

 

That would leave about seven more spots. Reed, Ha, Wallach, Barney, Kim, Jung, Rhee, Whitenack Struck, Cales, Smith, Smit, Beeler might fill up most of those spots somehow. Or who knows, maybe some other teenager or Korean who's off my radar. (I certainly didn't include Watkins in my list...)

[toonsterwu]

the way they made it sound, I wouldn't be surprised if Rhee was still hanging onto a spot in the top 30. Feels like they are willing to give him a mulligan on the season.

[craig]

...The reports on his defense have been mixed all year (nothing bad ... but ranging from decent to good). Say the Cubs decide to go with someone else as a CF (as I've noted elsewhere, if the Cubs feel like Starlin "owns" SS in a year or two, I'd love to see them ponder Lee in CF). Moving Brett to a corner role and letting him bulk up a bit might help his power out.

 

I like Jackson for CF. I know he's not a blazer, but the sense is that he takes good routes and has good jumps. To some degree, I think CF and C may be two positions where sometimes it isn't as hard as we think to be big-league capable. Every farm team has some super-blazer in CF, so Jackson's speed probably seems relatively slow. But just as AA/AAA is littered with great-armed good-defense catchers who's non-bats keep them out of the majors, I wonder if that doesn't happen in CF too? In the majors, with CFers like Marlon, and in small field like Wrigley, perhaps Jackson's CF will look just fine?

 

The possibility to perhaps move Lee to CF is not a bad idea. At present I'm not real keen, though. If he advances and affirms as a really good leadoff prospect, maybe yes. But I think he profiles so favorably as a defensive SS that it would be a waste to move him. The same footwork and glovework that works at SS also works at 2B, so a move there would be fine. (The DP turn is actually harder; 2B gets as many or more balls than SS; and because of the shorter throw 2B's actually produce more outs than SS's do. So a great fielding 2B would be very valuable.) But all the footwork and glovework and infield range that appeals at SS, might too much of his value be wasted in CF? I think if he blossoms as a prospect but we just don't want to mess with Castro at SS, and we don't want Lee at 2B for whatever reason, just trade him somewhere where his SS defense can be put to good use.

 

Regardless, Szczur is now going to be the super-star .320-hitting 30-HR hitting Cf HOFer!

[toonsterwu]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I think if Lee develops, and Castro "owns" SS, Lee then becomes a prime trade chip first, I think (still have doubts he could "anchor" a package by himself, at least as of now).

 

As for Brett, I think he'll be fine in CF through his cost-controlled years. In his late 20's? I could see all the possible scenarios play out - he's still solid in CF, but declines a bit, a younger emerges to push him aside, or skill deterioration simply forces the issue.

Edited January 6, 2011 by toonsterwu

[Guest]

Out of curiosity, did they specifically mention Evan Crawford for some reason?

 

Someone asked a question in the chat about him.

[Scotti]

Does anyone know where Watkins batted in the order for most of last year (or did he move around in the order)?

[craig]

Does anyone know where Watkins batted in the order for most of last year (or did he move around in the order)?

 

Second. Lee-Watkins was the regular top of the order. Watkins had more sacrifices than doubles.

 

What really killed him was that his K's went up dramatically. At Boise I recall he had the best K-rate in the league, under 10%. With speed and no K's, you can hit .300 on BABIP alone even without and HR's. But this year his K-rate jumped to almost 19%. When you're whiffing that often, and have a 97K/1HR ratio, it's hard to support a good batting average.

[Scotti]

Does anyone know where Watkins batted in the order for most of last year (or did he move around in the order)?

 

Second. Lee-Watkins was the regular top of the order. Watkins had more sacrifices than doubles.

 

What really killed him was that his K's went up dramatically. At Boise I recall he had the best K-rate in the league, under 10%. With speed and no K's, you can hit .300 on BABIP alone even without and HR's. But this year his K-rate jumped to almost 19%. When you're whiffing that often, and have a 97K/1HR ratio, it's hard to support a good batting average.

 

11.2% of his PA were BB this year. That's way up from 8.6% last year. Could be that he figured out that guys who don't hit with power need to get on base. Or perhaps the Cubs told him that they wanted him to take more pitches in front of Lee. Some of his other peripherals have improved along with the BB%. LD% is up significantly (from 9% to 14%) and isolated power is up to .078 from .064.

 

I think rating him so high last year was a mistake, and I hate when BA hangs on to a guy just so they don't look bad, but I agree with keeping him in the top 30. With 18 sacs behind Lee, it looks like Kopitzke was taking matters into his own hands. I wouldn't doubt there were some failed bunts (bad for batting average) and a bit of hit-and-run action to go along with taking more pitches than he was used to.