Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-29-2009

[Wrigley Rat]

I think Cashner would be a September call-up if it wasn't for a logjam on the 40-man roster. If the Cubs make a trade or two to lower the numbers on the 40-man, I could still see it happening. I'd imagine he would work out of the bullpen since he doesn't work deep into many games. A 99-mph fastball has a place in the majors.

[Guest]

I'd go with Castro over Cashner.

:thumbsup:

[Guest]

I think Cashner would be a September call-up if it wasn't for a logjam on the 40-man roster. If the Cubs make a trade or two to lower the numbers on the 40-man, I could still see it happening. I'd imagine he would work out of the bullpen since he doesn't work deep into many games. A 99-mph fastball has a place in the majors.

 

Actually, going 5 innings on ~90 pitches isn't that bad once you get to AA - at least in the Cubs system where they've become pretty careful with a lot of pitchers.

[StylesClash]

I'd go with Castro over Cashner.

 

I've gotta see his power and walk totals increase, as well as error totals decrease, before I put Castro ahead of Cashner. Granted a 19 year old Shortstop with an OPS over 700 in high-A ball is fairly impressive. But I can't rank him over a pitcher with an ideal frame, clean mechanics, plus mid 90's fastball, potential for a plus slider, and an ever improving changeup.

 

Essentially with Andrew Cashner I see someone who with more polishing of his secondary pitches could be a top of the rotation pitcher. We really don't have any idea what Starlin Castro's upside is. Cashner seems like a safer bet to become an impact big league player.

[Outshined_One]

I'd go with Castro over Cashner.

 

I've gotta see his power and walk totals increase, as well as error totals decrease, before I put Castro ahead of Cashner. Granted a 19 year old Shortstop with an OPS over 700 in high-A ball is fairly impressive. But I can't rank him over a pitcher with an ideal frame, clean mechanics, plus mid 90's fastball, potential for a plus slider, and an ever improving changeup.

 

Essentially with Andrew Cashner I see someone who with more polishing of his secondary pitches could be a top of the rotation pitcher. We really don't have any idea what Starlin Castro's upside is. Cashner seems like a safer bet to become an impact big league player.

 

I understand the sentiment, but the one thing holding me back from ranking Cashner over Castro is that Cashner needs to prove he can start over the course of a full season, stay healthy, and maintain his stuff throughout. I think he has a chance of doing that, don't get me wrong. However, considering there is still a distinct likelihood he will end up as a reliever in the majors, I think that hurts his stock a decent amount.

[StylesClash]

I'd go with Castro over Cashner.

 

I've gotta see his power and walk totals increase, as well as error totals decrease, before I put Castro ahead of Cashner. Granted a 19 year old Shortstop with an OPS over 700 in high-A ball is fairly impressive. But I can't rank him over a pitcher with an ideal frame, clean mechanics, plus mid 90's fastball, potential for a plus slider, and an ever improving changeup.

 

Essentially with Andrew Cashner I see someone who with more polishing of his secondary pitches could be a top of the rotation pitcher. We really don't have any idea what Starlin Castro's upside is. Cashner seems like a safer bet to become an impact big league player.

 

I understand the sentiment, but the one thing holding me back from ranking Cashner over Castro is that Cashner needs to prove he can start over the course of a full season, stay healthy, and maintain his stuff throughout. I think he has a chance of doing that, don't get me wrong. However, considering there is still a distinct likelihood he will end up as a reliever in the majors, I think that hurts his stock a decent amount.

 

Distinct likelihood of a move to the pen? Tim Wilken stated that Andrew Cashner had some of the best mechanics that he'd seen of any pitcher in the 2008 draft. Combine that with his six foot six frame and excellent conditioning program and I see little issue with his durability. Cashner already has one plus pitch with his fastball (which from various reports maintains quality velocity deep into games).

 

The big question with Cashner is his slider. Wilken stated it has the movement of a power curveball (which is clearly very impressive). Appearently though Cashners command of it is shaky. Improving slider consistency and turning the changeup into an average offering are the two main keys in his development.

 

Are your doubts of Cashner's long term future in the rotation more of secondary offerings or durability? As of now I have little hesitation ranking not only Cashner ahead of Castro, but Lee as well. Lee has 50+ stolen base potential and a decent approach in terms of maintaining a solid OBP/BA differential.

[Outshined_One]

Distinct likelihood of a move to the pen? Tim Wilken stated that Andrew Cashner had some of the best mechanics that he'd seen of any pitcher in the 2008 draft. Combine that with his six foot six frame and excellent conditioning program and I see little issue with his durability. Cashner already has one plus pitch with his fastball (which from various reports maintains quality velocity deep into games).

 

The big question with Cashner is his slider. Wilken stated it has the movement of a power curveball (which is clearly very impressive). Appearently though Cashners command of it is shaky. Improving slider consistency and turning the changeup into an average offering are the two main keys in his development.

 

Are your doubts of Cashner's long term future in the rotation more of secondary offerings or durability? As of now I have little hesitation ranking not only Cashner ahead of Castro, but Lee as well. Lee has 50+ stolen base potential and a decent approach in terms of maintaining a solid OBP/BA differential.

 

Durability's my main issue. The Cubs have been really careful with Cashner this season due to his oblique strain early on, which is a bit worrying to me. Moreover, back in college, Cashner had great stuff, but when he was a starter, he was unable to sustain that stuff over the long haul, resulting in him having disappointing outings. It wasn't until he was moved to reliever that he developed his 1-2 fastball-slider punch into high quality offerings. Given his recent injury and his history of having issues maintaining his stuff as a starter, I'm leery.

 

In his favor, apparently his slider has been inconsistent this season, meaning he's had to rely on his fastball and changeup. Reportedly, his changeup has looked very good and consistent. So, if he has three potential plus offerings in his arsenal, he'll have the stuff to be a top of the line starter. However, that won't mean much if he can't shoulder a season-long workload. The problem with that particular evaluation is we likely won't know if he can pitch 150+ innings a season until next season.

 

As for Lee over Castro, there's a lot to compare, but not a whole lot to contrast. Lee's a very good base stealer (14 SB, 4 CS), but don't sleep on Castro's stolen base abilities (20 SB, 9 CS). Both have showcased great potential to be .300 hitters, but not a whole lot of power. Lee walks more, but Castro strikes out less. Both have defensive issues, with Lee having 16 errors and Castro having 32. Scouts rave about the defensive abilities and potential for both. Lee was a heralded major international signing, whereas Castro pretty much came out of nowhere this season. Lee's younger, but only by about 8 months. To me, the primary reason why I'd rank Castro over Lee is because Castro is at a higher level with much better pitching than Lee.

 

Down the line, perhaps Lee will end up being the better prospect. However, as of now, what Castro has done in Daytona is much more impressive than what Lee has done in Boise.

[Vanilla Ice]

I feel like there is a clear top 6 in the Cubs system then everybody else.

 

(in my order)

1. Vitters

2. Cashner

3. Castro

4. Jackson

5. Lee

6. Carpenter

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I feel like there is a clear top 6 in the Cubs system then everybody else.

 

(in my order)

1. Vitters

2. Cashner

3. Castro

4. Jackson

5. Lee

6. Carpenter

 

Just think, not a single one of those guys was playing full season ball in May of last year. Now, 2 are at AA, 2 are at A+, and another should be at AA.

[Guest]

I feel like there is a clear top 6 in the Cubs system then everybody else.

 

(in my order)

1. Vitters

2. Cashner

3. Castro

4. Jackson

5. Lee

6. Carpenter

 

Just think, not a single one of those guys was playing full season ball in May of last year. Now, 2 are at AA, 2 are at A+, and another should be at AA.

 

Heck, some combination including Brett Jackson, Ryan Searle, Dan McDaniel, Casey Coleman, Kyler Burke, Ryan Flaherty or Chris Archer should belong in or near the top 15 and none of them were in full season ball in the Cubs system last year (except Burke who was primarily at Boise last season).