Projections for Fantasy Baseball

[Tyrant]

I know I've seen this info out there before, but what are the most reliable projection systems out there if one is trying to get a handle on the upcoming season?

 

I know fangraphs has Marcels and Chone for free. Ideally I'd like to download these (again, for free, since I'm cheap) and integrate them into a spreadsheet.

 

What has everyone else had the best luck with in the past?

[nilodnayr]

I know I've seen this info out there before, but what are the most reliable projection systems out there if one is trying to get a handle on the upcoming season?

 

I know fangraphs has Marcels and Chone for free. Ideally I'd like to download these (again, for free, since I'm cheap) and integrate them into a spreadsheet.

 

What has everyone else had the best luck with in the past?

 

Marcel and Chone have been proven to be pretty good (relatively speaking, of course). Oliver is available on fangraphs too. I've never seen it included in any studies, but I think I've heard its OK. I'd ignore Bill James, everyone is over inflated. One word of caution is that Marcel isn't going to be good for younger players will little MLB experience. Of course if you have access to BP, use PECOTA. Zips is also perfectly fine (baseballthinkfactory) to use as well. In the past I've used an average of a few of the better systems.

[Tyrant]

I know I've seen this info out there before, but what are the most reliable projection systems out there if one is trying to get a handle on the upcoming season?

 

I know fangraphs has Marcels and Chone for free. Ideally I'd like to download these (again, for free, since I'm cheap) and integrate them into a spreadsheet.

 

What has everyone else had the best luck with in the past?

 

Marcel and Chone have been proven to be pretty good (relatively speaking, of course). Oliver is available on fangraphs too. I've never seen it included in any studies, but I think I've heard its OK. I'd ignore Bill James, everyone is over inflated. One word of caution is that Marcel isn't going to be good for younger players will little MLB experience. Of course if you have access to BP, use PECOTA. Zips is also perfectly fine (baseballthinkfactory) to use as well. In the past I've used an average of a few of the better systems.

 

Yeah, I've noticed in the past that James seems to overrate most players. Ideally I'd use an average of a few systems, if I'm feeling up to doing the legwork.

 

Is Zips available in a comprehensive spreadsheet? I've only seen it in a team-by-team format.

[sneakypower]

i actually greatly prefer Bill James to the rest.

 

Zips, Marcel, Chone are much more regressed to the mean, and you'll have a smaller error if you're trying to do something like Meph's spreadsheet comparing your team to the rest of the league or something like that, but some of the exaggerated projections from James gives a better idea of which players have a higher upside, leading you to consider reaching on them in the draft. ie the huge projection he had for Josh Hamilton last year. it was way off the mark from what Pecota and Zips had for him, iirc, and obviously reaching on Hamilton paid huge dividends. i'm also still pissed at Pecota for Chris Young

[nilodnayr]

i actually greatly prefer Bill James to the rest.

 

Zips, Marcel, Chone are much more regressed to the mean, and you'll have a smaller error if you're trying to do something like Meph's spreadsheet comparing your team to the rest of the league or something like that, but some of the exaggerated projections from James gives a better idea of which players have a higher upside, leading you to consider reaching on them in the draft. ie the huge projection he had for Josh Hamilton last year. it was way off the mark from what Pecota and Zips had for him, iirc, and obviously reaching on Hamilton paid huge dividends. i'm also still pissed at Pecota for Chris Young

 

its all relative though...its just that james in aggregate has like an 850 ops or something insane like that

[Tyrant]

Just a note on this, I ended up shelling out for the BP fantasy subscription for the year. What an awesome tool. The player forecast manager is amazing. I'm still not sure how to use everything in it, or how to best set it to my league, but it's really fun to play around with. Good stuff.