Fukudome / Iwamura

[The Other 15]

We're all looking at what the Cubs should expect from Fukudome, and the answer is probably right in front of our eyes - Iwamura.

 

Both guys were prodigious power guys in Japan just before they made the change to the states. Iwamura had a slightly better season but they have the same approach. Watching him flail away at every pitch just like Fuku does shows that he's comfortable in his approach and can have some level of success (though nothing to write home about).

 

Fukudome said he was never comfortable with his approach (even when the Wrigley idiots were wearing those offensive headbands). Lets' forget the numbers he put up by early June - he wasn't that good. And lets' forget his numbers after that - he isn't that bad. When he does find himself, look to see something that resembles Iwamura with more walks.

 

It wouldn't be the LH middle of the order bat that they though they signed, but he would be useful as a CF if Pie fails to impress in ST.

[Mephistopheles]

bad comparison

[The Other 15]

Mybe but how? They're the same age (roughly) same size and same players in Japan. I should add that unmentioned in my post was that Iwamura plays a position that can let a guy get away with those numbers while Fuku obviously played one much more important to numbers.

 

I won't waste space with their numbers in Japan, everyone is capable of looking them up. But they shared many things in common (including that Japanese league swing) before their switch to the states.

Edited October 15, 2008 by The Other 15%

[Mephistopheles]

there are a lot of things in common between albert pujols and brendan harris too.

[manbearcub]

there are a lot of things in common between albert pujols and brendan harris too.

care to elaborate?

[The Other 15]

Such as? Their minor league numbers? Their size and approach? Or vowels in their names .

[OleMissCub]

I'm gonna side with Meph on this one. His knowledge of the NPB is pretty extraordinary.

[Mephistopheles]

There are a lot of things in common between Ryan Dilon and Greg Maddux as well.

[manbearcub]

i feel like i am trying to solve a matching puzzle going through those guys BR pages.

[Mephistopheles]

Well I am using Japanese/Asian rhetoric.

[The Other 15]

OK, everyone is entitled to their opinions and I respect that. Two guys who come from the same league, put up identical numbers, have identical swings, are about the same age shouldn't be compared at all? Even for conversations sakes?

[Mephistopheles]

unfortunately only one of the things you said is true: they're both from japan.

[OleMissCub]

unfortunately only one of the things you said is true: they're both from japan.

 

stop being an ass for a sec and just explain to the guy why you think he's wrong.

[Mephistopheles]

I already did: I think he's wrong because they're not comparable. And I don't think they are comparable because of the things he said only one is true (thus my reasoning must include the other things he mentioned).

[The Other 15]

Iwamura beats him in vowles, but....

 

Iwamura in Japan Avg HR RBI AB H BB SB

1998 Yakult Swallows .000 0 0 3 0 0 0

1999 Yakult Swallows .294 11 35 252 74 18 7

2000 Yakult Swallows .278 18 66 436 121 39 13

2001 Yakult Swallows .287 18 81 520 149 32 15

2002 Yakult Swallows .320 23 71 510 163 58 5

2003 Yakult Swallows .263 12 35 232 61 22 5

2004 Yakult Swallows .300 44 103 533 160 70 8

2005 Yakult Swallows .319 30 102 548 175 63 6

2006 Yakult Swallows .311 32 77 615 167 70 8

2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays .285 7 34 491 140 58 12

2008 Tampa Bay Rays .280 5 32 446 125 47 5

 

Fukudome Avg HR RBI AB H BB SB

1999 Chunichi Dragons .284 16 52 461 131 50 4

2000 Chunichi Dragons .253 13 42 316 80 45 8

2001 Chunichi Dragons .251 15 56 375 94 56 8

2002 Chunichi Dragons .343 19 65 542 186 56 4

2003 Chunichi Dragons .313 34 96 528 165 78 10

2004 Chunichi Dragons .277 23 81 350 97 78 8

2005 Chunichi Dragons .328 28 103 515 169 48 13

2006 Chunichi Dragons .351 31 104 496 174 93 11

2007 Chunichi Dragons .294 13 48 269 79 69 5

2008 Chicago Cubs .276 8 42 391 108 63 10

 

They're not statistical twins, but they were very similar players when they both came of age.

[Guest]

I already did: I think he's wrong because they're not comparable. And I don't think they are comparable because of the things he said only one is true (thus my reasoning must include the other things he mentioned).

 

And what are those things?

[OleMissCub]

I had no idea Iwamura put up power numbers like that. He can't slug for howry in the MLB.

[Mephistopheles]

Hey you can copy and paste numbers. I am impressed.

 

I already did: I think he's wrong because they're not comparable. And I don't think they are comparable because of the things he said only one is true (thus my reasoning must include the other things he mentioned).

 

And what are those things?

 

 

Let's see:

 

OK, everyone is entitled to their opinions and I respect that. Two guys who come from the same league, put up identical numbers, have identical swings, are about the same age shouldn't be compared at all? Even for conversations sakes?

 

From the Same League - Check

Identical Numbers - Nope

Identical Swings - Not really. Ichiro and Matsui do the same things they do, but their actual swings are totally different.

Age - Nope. 2 years is a lot.

 

and the fact I chose Pujols and Harris means something. I didn't randomly pull two names out of a hat. It's really that type of comparison.

[The Other 15]

Using their BB's, I'll go out on a limb and assume Fuku will put up a higher OBP and probably a better OPS as a major leaguer. But as far as where his baseline expectations could be for 2009, I don't find it a stretch to compare him to Iwamura at this time.

[Mephistopheles]

You're not really going out on the a limb on that one. I'll go ahead and predict that Adam Dunn walks more than Alfonso Soriano next year too.

[The Other 15]

Two years might be alot for 34 vs 36, but 31 v 29? Where does it end? 31 v 29, 29 v 27, etc.

They were about the same age and same experience (as far as Japan ball goes) when they crossed over.

 

Maybe my point was not written well enough, but I understand that they are not "identical" (who is?). They were about the same players (give or take some) in their last 5 yrs in Japan. Considering the very wide range of Fukus numbers as the year went along, is it really a stretch to consider he might end up alot like Iwamura? Maybe, but we'll see.

[chuckywang]

You say the Cubs should expect Fukudome to put up Iwamura numbers?

 

Iwamura in 2008: .274/.349/.380 96 OPS+, 6 HR, 48 RBI

Fukudome in 2008: .257/.359/.379 92 OPS+, 10 HR, 58 RBI

 

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see much of a difference.

[The Other 15]

You say the Cubs should expect Fukudome to put up Iwamura numbers?

 

Iwamura in 2008: .274/.349/.380 96 OPS+, 6 HR, 48 RBI

Fukudome in 2008: .257/.359/.379 92 OPS+, 10 HR, 58 RBI

 

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see much of a difference.

 

No not much at all. However, Fuku put up extreme numbers in each half. When it all settles down, and he does contribute throughout the season, it seems like they will likely end up in the same area. I use Iwamura mainly because he shared so many things with Fukudome. They were power hitters in japan, and they both put up extreme numbesr in the first and second halves of their first season here.

 

I've heard and read all the Hideki Matsui comparisons for Fuku, and that may still play out, but as of now, it seems much more likely he is Iwamura more than Matsui.

[Mephistopheles]

The main problem can be illustrated as an SAT Test question.

 

Brendan Harris Best Year : Albert Pujols Career Average :: Akinori Iwamuras Best Year : Kosuke Fukudomes Career Average

 

Iwamura in Japan played for the Yakult Swallows routinely placing equivalent averages in the .290 to .300 range. Fukudome, on the other hand, had one season in his last 6 seasons where his equivalent average was below .330. The difference from Fukudome's average season and Iwamura's best season was roughly 40 to 50 pts of equivalent average. Harris and Pujols' difference is 60 points, or so. Seriously Fukudome was incredible in Japan

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/Fukudome4.gif

 

Yakult's one of the top three offensive parks in NPB. Chunichi is more or less the RFK of NPB. Yakult would be Citizen's Bank or Ameriquest Field. In Japan, Iwamura was an all or nothing slugger. He had high power numbers because he was more or less trying to be Matt Stairs. What he ended up doing was homering a lot, striking out a lot and getting a few walks thanks to opposing pitchers being scared. Fukudome couldn't do that in Chunichi. He had to be more of a complete hitter who used the entire field and routinely shot balls to the gaps. He displayed great plate coverage, recognition and discipline, something Iwamura did not. He showed great contact skills, something Iwamura did not. He showed roughly the same amount of power, relatively speaking, but augmented it with a more well-rounded attack.

 

This is in Japan, since moving over here Iwamura has competely changed his approach to the plate to being a slap hitter. Your comparison of the two of them has probably more to do with Iwamura changing his game to adapt here. He does not have enough power to be a Matt Stairs in the US. He has 20 HR power, but that would come with 200 strike outs and a .225 batting average. He's changed his game and is actually outproducing his projections based on his Japan numbers despite producing in an entirely different way than anticipated. Fukudome on the other hand didn't have the glaring holes in his game that Iwamura had, so he shouldn't have to adjust his game to succeed.

 

I have little doubt in my mind that Fukudome will approach or pass his translated level of production. Every hitter coming here has. Tadahito Iguchi did, Kaz Matsui did, Kenji Johjima did, Ichiro did, and Hideki Matsui did. With the exception of Matsui, Fukudome was considerably better and more complete as a hitter in Japan than the others. Matsui was fairly one dimensional in Japan too, but that's beside the point. There has not been a more complete hitter than Fukudome to come over. He'll adjust in time. He's no Iwamura. Poor comparison.

[The Other 15]

That's pretty much what the scouting reports said prior to Fuku coming here. And why San Diego and the White Sox put in considerable offers for him.

 

Once they came here, and people adjusted to them, Fuku ended up with more holes in his swing. It was obvious Fuku was not going to continue the pace he was on, I was just disappointed at the speed and level at which he fell off.

 

What I like about Fuku is his honesty when he said he never felt good this year even at his best. A hitter like him, once he does get comfortable (and one would assume he will at some stage next year) would obviously become a much bigger threat than Iwamura. Will he get there is the 14 million dollar question. Will Lou allow him to get there is another.