Should we be worried about a decline from Z?

[fromthestretch]

One other thing that Z has improved this year is his home run rate. He's getting back to the 2002-2004 Zambrano that did a good job keeping the ball in the yard. Not that he was giving up a ton of homers the past few years, but he's definitely improved in that area this season.

 

I wonder if that's because he's not behind hitters or is hitting his spots better....could be both I suppose.

 

Well, when he's not trying to throw everything by the hitter, he has some really good sink on his fastball.

[Clem Fandango]

I was thinking about his declining K-rate over the last few years about a week ago.

 

My theory is that perhaps he realized that an all-or-nothing power pitcher hasn't exactly worked for him like he'd hoped and he's becoming more of a finesse kind of guy, working on commanding and properly placing his pitches rather then throwing them trying to get people swinging. This might explain his declining K-rate and his increase in his walk rate and ERA.

 

Of course my theory is based on no statistical data or research, just a hunch

 

EDIT: Just realized everyone else has said this. Great minds think alike. [/excuse]

[salukifudd]

I know the, "have you watched the games", is not a popular comment. But, to me, it seems Z's armslot is lower and he is slinging the ball instead of pitching. I was glad he went on the DL before the All-Star break. I thought he would have time to let the arm heal at least a little bit. The velocity on the fastball is still near the norm, but his strikeout rate is down, and that worries me. Z has not looked the same to me this year. The guy is a horse and his huge body allows him to keep the velocity up, it's not his arm.

 

If anybody has video of Z's pitching motion and release of 2 years ago and today, I would love to see it. To me, he is a different pitcher. It seems like he slings and is afraid of "letting it go".

 

I hope someone can prove me wrong.

[Jehrico]

I know the, "have you watched the games", is not a popular comment. But, to me, it seems Z's armslot is lower and he is slinging the ball instead of pitching. I was glad he went on the DL before the All-Star break. I thought he would have time to let the arm heal at least a little bit. The velocity on the fastball is still near the norm, but his strikeout rate is down, and that worries me. Z has not looked the same to me this year. The guy is a horse and his huge body allows him to keep the velocity up, it's not his arm.

 

If anybody has video of Z's pitching motion and release of 2 years ago and today, I would love to see it. To me, he is a different pitcher. It seems like he slings and is afraid of "letting it go".

 

I hope someone can prove me wrong.

One other thing to note about Z...He is a sinkerballer. He also has the arm of a power pitcher. Unfortunately, his fastball doesn't sink when he dials it up to 94+. He's better when he dials his fastball down a notch. It took him a few years to learn to stop throwing everything so hard. I think the adjustment accounts for his motion. His arm slot may be a hair lower, but his motion is less violent than it was a few years ago, and should be better for the longevity of his career.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he's lowered his arm slot to put less torque on his shoulder and elbow after watching Prior and Wood sit on the DL the last 4 years. I would think that all of the problems Wood and Prior had must have made him at least a little more conscientious about his mechanics.