Keep Liriano or Gallardo?

[sherwood921]

12Team h2h (R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, OBP, W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP) We get to keep 3 out of different tiers.

 

I will be keeping:

Arod

Adrian Gonzalez

Liriano OR Gallardo

 

Which one would you keep? Where they were drafted doesn't matter, the keepers are all removed from the pool from the beginning.

 

Here's where I stand:

 

Liriano

Potential to be unbelievable

Coming back from elbow surgery

In tough division, on crappy team

 

Gallardo

Potential to be very good

On good team, in crappy division

Recently had knee surgery

 

Which one do I keep?

[anabiono]

i would personally go with liriano

[Clem Fandango]

if it's a keeper league and you're choosing who you're planning on having for your team's future, I'd go with Liriano, although indicators are showing that he's going to start the year in long relief to ease his way into the rotation, and he's not throwing at 100% for safety precautions kind of sucks, but in the long run he's still the better pitcher, if not one of the best pitchers in the game if he avoids health issues and gets back to form

[sherwood921]

Well I get to keep 3 people, based on 3 different tiers. So out of Tier 1 I'm keeping Arod over Mauer, Beltran, Peavy, and some others. Tier 2 I'm keeping AGonz over a bunch of scrubs, and Tier 3 I'm stuck between Liriano or Gallardo over Salty and a couple others. It's based on last years' draft position. So I could potentially have one of them again next year, we'll see. It's a big time money league that I won last year, so I have the 12th (and 13th) pick this year, if that factors into the decision at all.

 

Basically it comes down to who will pitch better this season...Liriano or Gallardo? All the publications I've read seem to vary by a mile on both.

[Clem Fandango]

Well, here's what PECOTA says about the two...

 

Gallardo:

180IP 30GS 4.00ERA 1.33WHIP 179K 11-8 (28.8 VORP)

 

Liriano:

140IP 22GS 3.25ERA 1.22WHIP 146K 9-6 (39.1 VORP)

 

So you have a choice to make. Liriano appears to be better for a shorter period of time, but Gallardo will be more available, according to PECOTA anyways. Liriano is clearly better, and those numbers might not be too far off considering Liriano may or may not have slight issues with his injury and won't start probably for a week or two into the season depending on how much they want to ease him back, and the Twins management have said he'll be under a strict pitch count to save his arm.

 

Based on this and the fact you need to win this year and not in the future, I might go with Gallardo then, although Liriano might come up big. Tough decision based on that. Don't really know who I'd choose if I were in your situation knowing this now.

[sneakypower]

Gallardo will have the better W-L record and pitches in the much weaker division and league, but Liriano is the better pitcher.

 

I usually go for upside but Gallardo is probably the choice. But if you think your team is mediocre as is, then swing for the fences.